破譯金正恩晦澀難猜的新年致辭

Kim Jong Un's New Year's speech was closely watched because it offered a rare chance to see the North Korean leader speak, even if he probably contributed little or nothing to the message he delivered.

朝鮮領導人金正恩(Kim Jong Un)的新年致辭備受外界關注，因爲這提供了一個聆聽朝鮮領導人講話的難得機會，即使這篇致辭可能幾乎或完全不是他本人的意思。

The speech itself didn't turn up much that was new other than a colorful reference to his purged uncle, Jang Song Thaek, as 'factionalist filth' and heavy reinforcement of the ideological fallout from Mr. Jang's demise. Mr. Kim said it was imperative to 'ensure the purity of Party ranks' and 'establish the monolithic leadership system in the Party.'

除了將他已被肅清的姑父張成澤(Jang Song Thaek)稱爲“宗派污泥濁水”，並借張成澤被處決事件大力強化國家意識形態之外，這篇講話並沒有多少新的內容。金正恩稱，要在黨內建立唯一領導體系，切實保障黨隊伍的純潔性。

The delivery of the speech--from behind a dais with seven microphones--was also the same as last year, as was Mr. Kim's tendency to fidget while speaking. Possibly with that in mind, there was one notable difference in presentation this year: the amount of time Mr. Kim spent on camera.

這篇講話是在一個擺有七個麥克風的講臺上發表的。與去年一樣，金正恩在講話時仍顯得躁動不安。可能是考慮到了這一點，今年的講話有一個顯著不同，那就是金正恩出現在鏡頭中的時間。

Like last year, the speech was broadcast as a combination of Mr. Kim's presentation and cutaways to a photo of the Korean Workers' Party Central Committee headquarters building. It isn't clear if the speech was delivered there or even if there was an audience. The applause, like last year, sounded like it was borrowed from a 1970's U.S. sitcom.

與去年一樣，這篇講話是通過將金正恩的講話鏡頭與朝鮮勞動黨(Korean Workers' Party)中央委員會總部大樓的照片剪輯結合在一起播放的。目前還不清楚這篇講話是否就是在該大樓發表的，也不知道當時是否還有觀衆。與去年一樣，這篇講話中的掌聲聽起來像是從上世紀70年代的美國情景喜劇中借用過來的。

For the 2013 speech, Mr. Kim was shown at length throughout the broadcast. But this year, after just two minutes of a speech that lasted more than 20 minutes, Mr. Kim is no longer shown and the building is the only thing to look at.

在2013年的新年致辭中，金正恩從始至終都出現在鏡頭中。但今年，在這篇全長20多分鐘的講話僅開始兩分鐘後，畫面上就再也看不到金正恩，而只有勞動黨中央委員會總部大樓。

Exactly why is, like most things in North Korea, unclear. But one possibility, naturally speculative, is that it reflects Mr. Kim's reduced grip on power in the wake of the execution of his uncle.

與朝鮮的很多事情一樣，這其中的真正原因也不得而知。但令人自然而然能推測到的一種可能是，這表明在張成澤被處決後金正恩的權力受到了削弱。

North Korea's call to rally behind the leader has been a constant in state media since the purge. Yet some experts are convinced Mr. Kim is not in charge, even if the regime maintains the cult of the Kim family, with Mr. Kim as the figurehead, to ensure stability and control.

自從肅清張成澤之後，朝鮮一直在國內媒體上號召團結在金正恩周圍。但一些專家確信，金正恩已不再掌權，即使現行的政治制度仍尊崇金氏家族，將金正恩當作一個“名義領袖”，以確保穩定和對國家的控制。

New Focus International, a news service about North Korea run by Jang Jin-sung, a former senior North Korean official, recently published a series of articles about what it sees as the new underlying power structure, including a column with the headline ' We have just witnessed a coup in North Korea.' Following that, Mr. Jang and his staff, including other former North Korean officials, detail what they believe to be the current power hierarchy.

朝鮮前高級官員張真晟(Jang Jin-sung)開辦的一家報道朝鮮事件的新聞網站國際新焦點(New Focus International)前不久發表了一系列文章，內容是關於該國新的潛在權力結構，其中包括一篇題爲“我們剛剛目睹了朝鮮政變”的專欄文章。之後，張真晟與同事（包括朝鮮其他前官員）詳細講述了他們眼中朝鮮目前的權力等級。

Among the evidence they cited were photos of the Politburo meeting at which the purge of Mr. Jang was announced. The photos show the meeting hall half-empty and cadres raising questions from the floor. According to New Focus, this would be unthinkable under the previous leader, Kim Jong Il, and shows a lack of control by the current leader.

他們舉出了多種證據，如宣佈清洗張成澤的中央政治局會議的照片等。從這些照片上可以看到，會議大廳內有一半的座位是空着的，與會幹部正在提問。據國際新焦點表示，難以想象在朝鮮前領導人金正日(Kim Jong Il)的統治下會出現這個場面，同時這也表明金正恩缺乏掌控力。

They also note that the decision to purge Mr. Jang was stated as 'organizational will of the Party' rather than that of Mr. Kim--something that wouldn't have happened under his father.

他們還指出，清洗張成澤的決定被說成是“黨的組織意圖”，而不是金正恩的個人決心。在其父金正日掌權時，就不會發生這樣的事。

Mr. Jang says it's not a coincidence that the photo of the Workers' Party headquarters got far more screen time that Mr. Kim in this year's New Year's speech, reflecting the Party's increased role at the expense of Mr. Kim.

張真晟說，在新年致辭中，朝鮮勞動黨總部的圖像獲得了遠超金正恩的上鏡時間，這並非是一個巧合，而是反映出勞動黨扮演了更重要的角色，當然這是以金正恩權力弱化爲代價的。

What this means for the stability of the North Korean regime, if it is indeed true, is also unclear. A North Korea run by Party officials with Mr. Kim as the figurehead may be just as stable as a North Korea run by a Kim. And to be sure, there are plenty of analysts skeptical that Mr. Kim isn't in full control.

如果張真晟的看法是正確的，那麼這對朝鮮政權的穩定性而言意味着什麼，目前還不得而知。或許，一個由勞動黨官員統治的、以金正恩爲名義領袖的朝鮮與金正日統治下的朝鮮一樣穩定。當然，也有很多分析人士懷疑，金正恩並未完全掌控朝鮮。

One thing we do know for sure is that he can't stand still while giving a speech.

我們確切知道的一件事是，他在發表演講時不能一動不動地站着。