政變之後泰國社會結構依然疑雲密佈

Yesterday Thailand's military leadership went on state TV and announced they were seizing power. Vowing to "restore peace in a short time and reform government policy," the generals formed the "National Peace and Order Maintaining Command," dissolved the cabinet, threw out the constitution (itself the product of the country's 2006 coup) and declared a curfew from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. TVs across the country broadcast a static image of a Thai military logo and patriotic songs as news of Thailand's 19th military coup in 82 years—a handful of those weren't successful—sunk in.

5月22日，泰國軍方領導人在國家電視臺宣佈奪取政權。爲了“在短時間內恢復和平和改革政府政策”，軍方成立了“國家和平與秩序維持司令部”（National Peace and Order Maintaining Command），並解散內閣，廢除憲法（現行憲法也是2006年政變的產物），同時宣佈，從晚上10點到凌晨5點實行宵禁。泰國82年以來第19次軍事政變（歷次政變中，有些並沒有成功）的消息傳出後，全國電視頻道均播放帶有軍方標誌的靜態畫面和愛國歌曲。

Not a first, certainly. Military coups in Thailand happen almost as often as American presidential elections. And though Thailand's military had hinted they were done with all that, No. 19 was not totally unexpected. Gripped by political conflict for years (since its last coup, really), the country had recently arrived again at political impasse: For months there have been rumors of impending military intervention and on Tuesday, the military imposed martial law.

這當然不是第一次。泰國的軍事政變就像美國的總統大選一樣頻繁。雖然泰國軍方曾經暗示，他們不會再發起政變，但第19次軍事政變一點都不意外。經過持續多年的政治衝突（自上一次政變以來），泰國最近再次陷入了政治僵局：數月以來，一直有傳聞稱軍方將進行干預，週二，泰國軍方終於實行了戒嚴令。

Still, the coup's timing was peculiar—a sharp turn in an afternoon that had brought the nation's political leaders to the Thai Army Club, ostensibly to talk their way to a resolution of the crisis. (This was the second day of army-brokered negotiations and a military spokesperson had characterized the first as 'positive.')

這次政變的時機也頗爲耐人尋味——當天下午，泰國軍方召集各方政治領導人前往泰國陸軍俱樂部，表面上看是要討論如何解決危機，但後來的形勢卻急轉直下。（這是泰國軍方召集談判的第二天，一位軍方發言人曾稱第一天的談判是“積極的”。）

Obviously, that didn't happen. The junta detained the political leaders, and then announced on TV they were taking over. They rounded up 150 more today, including Yingluck Shinawatra, the Thai Prime Minister who was ousted two weeks ago by the nation's Constitutional Court.

很顯然，會談沒有成功。軍方扣押了政治領導人，並在電視上宣佈接管政權。第二天，泰國軍方又逮捕了150人，包括兩週前被泰國憲法法院趕下臺的總理英拉o西那瓦。

So what does this mess mean for Thailand and its already weakened

那麼，對於泰國及其已經非常脆弱的經濟，這種混亂的局勢到底意味着什麼？

As I've written before, Thailand has traditionally weathered coups and political instability quite well. Its last coup, which ousted media tycoon-turned-PM Thaksin Shinawatra (the brother of the recently ousted prime minister) in 2006, was even called the "silk coup" it went down so smoothly. The morning after tanks rolled in, Thais were on the streets presenting soldiers with roses.

正如筆者之前所寫，泰國曾成功渡過多次政變和政治動盪。2006年，從媒體大亨當選總理的他信o西那瓦（英拉的哥哥）在上一次政變中被趕下臺。那次政變甚至被稱作“絲綢政變”，最終也順利結束。坦克滾滾而來的第二天上午，泰國人便走上街頭，向士兵們送上玫瑰花。

In a note earlier this week, Barnabas Gan, an analyst with OCBC Bank, wrote, "Historically, a military intervention has been effective in ending political strife and establishing a legitimate government presence." He added that martial law was likely just the Ya Kom, or "bitter medicine," the politically and economically ailing nation needed.

上週早些時候，華僑銀行（OCBC Bank）分析師巴納巴斯o賈恩曾寫道：“歷史上，軍事幹預一直都是結束政治衝突和建立合法政府的有效方法。”他補充道，戒嚴令就像是“苦口良藥”，正是在政治和經濟上患病的國家所需要的。

Yet, there are also reasons to think things will not be so, uh, rosy this go round. A lot has happened since 2006—much of it the fallout from that smooth-as-silk coup. Shinawatra, who lives in self-imposed exile in Dubai, nevertheless remains popular and at the heart of Thailand's political problems. (Since being deposed, he's had a brother-in-law, a younger sister, and a close business crony in the seat of power). His political base, much of which comes from Thailand's rural provinces, is increasingly wealthy, educated, and unwilling to tolerate the undemocratic developments dealt them by the country's elites. That anti-coup demonstrations sprung up today in Bangkok is a show of that and a sure sign the coup will only add to that list of grievances and to the likelihood of more violence.

但我們也有理由認爲，軍事政變這一次不會那麼美好。自2006年以來發生了許多事——其中大多數都是上一次如絲綢般平滑的軍事政變的副作用。目前住在迪拜的他信處於自我放逐的狀態，但他在泰國國內仍然有許多支持者，也是泰國政治問題的核心。（自被罷免之後，他信的姐夫、妹妹和商業密友曾先後執掌政權）。他的政治基礎大多來自泰國農村，這些地區越來越富有，受教育程度也越來越高，民衆不再願意接受泰國精英階層非民主的統治。曼谷今天爆發的反軍事政變遊行就表明了這種現狀，更說明軍事政變只會加深積怨，增加爆發更多暴力衝突的可能。

Ultimately, that will not be a good thing for business. Nor in the very short term, will the post-coup curfew, which has already disrupted tourist plans—even Bangkok's notoriously seedy red light districts reportedly shut down—and night shifts at the nation's many automobile plants. (Honda, Toyota and Ford are among car manufacturers there.)

最後，軍事政變對商業也沒有好處。而在短時間內，政變之後的宵禁同樣不利於商業，而且已經影響了遊客的計劃。據報道，連曼谷臭名昭著的紅燈區也已被關閉。而且泰國許多汽車工廠的夜班工人也受到了影響。【泰國的汽車製造商包括本田汽車公司（Honda）、豐田汽車公司（Toyota）和福特汽車公司（Ford）等。】

Adithep Vanabriksha, CIO at Aberdeen Asset Management Thailand, says much of the country's economic fate relies on how quickly the junta can live up to their name. "Going forward, key questions remain unanswered: who will lead the interim government, how long the military will remain in control, when the next elections will be held. The effectiveness of the interim government and the speedy return to electoral democracy will be key to reviving the sagging economy."

泰國安本資產管理公司（Aberdeen Asset Management Thailand）CIO阿迪蒂普表示，泰國的經濟命運很大程度上取決於軍方需要多長時間來兌現承諾。“未來的關鍵問題仍未解決：將由誰來領導臨時政府，軍方將掌權多長時間，何時舉行下一次選舉。臨時政府的有效性和迅速恢復民主選舉將是低迷的泰國經濟能否實現振興的關鍵。”

That's no easy task. He adds, "Longer term, the underlying reasons for the deep divisions are still haunting Thailand and will need to be addressed before a lasting solution can be found."

但這並不容易。他補充說：“從更長遠來看，造成深度分歧的根本原因依舊籠罩着泰國，只有解決了這些分歧，才能爲泰國找到持久的解決方案。”