內塔尼亞胡想把美國綁上戰車

Irony is not Benjamin Netanyahu’s strong suit. Israel’s prime minister was in Washington this week to issue another of his apocalyptic warnings about Iran’s nuclear programme. He left at home the crude diagram of an Iranian bomb he had waved aloft at the UN in 2012. Yet this latest theatre offered another reminder that no one has been so diligent as its present leader in disarming the state of Israel.

諷刺並不是本雅明•內塔尼亞胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)的強項。這位以色列總理上週在華盛頓發表了他對伊朗核計劃的又一次世界末日警告。2012年他曾在聯合國(UN)展示一張粗糙的伊朗核彈圖表，這一次他將那張圖表留在了家裏。不過他最新的這次表演再次令人們想到，在給以色列拆臺方面，沒有人像該國的現任領導人這麼賣力。

Unsurprisingly, Mr Netanyahu won warm applause from his Republican friends in the US Congress. House Speaker John Boehner never misses an opportunity to embarrass President Barack Obama. Many Democrats stayed away. What should worry Israelis is that beyond Capitol Hill no one else is listening. The bellicose intransigence that Mr Netanyahu has made his trademark lost him the backing of Europeans long ago. By traducing Mr Obama in the company of Republicans he shattered trust with the White House.

不出所料，內塔尼亞胡從他在美國國會的共和黨盟友那兒贏得了熱烈掌聲。衆議院議長約翰•博納(John Boehner)從不錯過一個爲難巴拉克·奧巴馬(Barack Obama)總統的機會。許多民主黨人缺席了這場演講。以色列人應該擔心的是，在國會山以外，沒一個人會聽內塔尼亞胡的演講。好戰和毫不妥協已成了內塔尼亞胡的標誌，這種態度早就令他失去了歐洲人的支持。現在他在共和黨人的圈子裏中傷奧巴馬，破壞了白宮的信任。

There lies one irony. Mr Netanyahu has stripped himself of credibility. Whatever this Israeli government now says — sensible or otherwise — about the indisputable risks of any nuclear deal with Tehran will be generally discounted as the raving of someone forever set on another Middle East war. A statesman would have made Israel a partner to the six-power talks. Angry shouting from the sidelines has left Mr Netanyahu, well, alone on the sidelines.

這裏有一個極大的諷刺。內塔尼亞胡主動拋棄了自己的可信度。無論本屆以色列政府對於與伊朗的任何核協議都無疑存在的風險再怎麼說，也無論這些言論理智與否，基本上都會被人忽視，被當作某個一直想挑起又一場中東戰爭的人的胡言亂語。一個政治家本應讓以色列成爲伊朗核問題六方會談的一員。可是內塔尼亞胡卻選擇在場外憤怒咆哮，當然，這確實讓他被擋在場外。

Israel’s drift towards isolation is not just about Iran. The rising swell of opinion pushing the international community towards formal recognition of Palestinian statehood at the UN can be traced directly to the headlong expansion of illegal Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank. The Palestinian Authority of Mahmoud Abbas would have to make big concessions in any serious peace negotiation. It has been given a free pass. Why should it move when the Israeli leader openly scorns US peace efforts and, week by week, shows contempt for the notion of two states by grabbing more Palestinian land?

讓以色列逐漸走向孤立的不只是伊朗核問題。高漲的輿論正將國際社會推向在聯合國正式承認巴勒斯坦的國家地位，這些輿論可直接歸因於以色列在其佔領的約旦河西岸急速擴建非法定居點。馬哈茂德•阿巴斯(Mahmoud Abbas)的巴勒斯坦民族權力機構(Palestinian Authority)本來不得不在任何認真的和平談判中作出重大讓步，可它被授予了免費通行證。當以色列領導人公開嘲笑美國的和平努力，而且一週又一週地蠶食巴勒斯坦土地，表現出對兩國解決方案的蔑視時，巴勒斯坦方面憑什麼要作出讓步？

Nothing if not immodest, Mr Netanyahu called his US trip a “fateful, even historic, mission”. He styles himself a latter-day Winston Churchill — a vanity happily indulged by Mr Boehner. Many Israelis take a different view. Opposition politicians charged he had poisoned relations with the US in an effort to grab headlines two weeks ahead of a general election that he could yet lose to Labor’s Isaac Herzog.

內塔尼亞胡大言不慚地稱自己的美國之行是一次“決定性的，甚至是歷史性的使命”。他自詡爲現代的溫斯頓•丘吉爾(Winston Churchill)，而博納樂滋滋地縱容着他的虛榮。許多以色列人持有不同看法。以色列將在兩週後舉行大選，內塔尼亞胡仍有可能輸給工黨的艾薩克•赫爾佐格(Isaac Herzog)，反對黨政界人士指責內塔尼亞胡爲了在大選兩週前搶佔頭條，毒化了以色列與美國的關係。

More tellingly, an array of former senior officials and generals from the country’s security establishment said the grandstanding was a “clear and present danger to the security of the state of Israel”. The rift with Mr Obama, they stated, had imperilled bipartisan US support for Israel and made an enemy of its most vital friend.

更說明問題的是，以色列安全部門一大批前高級官員和將領表示，這種譁衆取寵對“以色列國家安全構成了一種明確而現實的危險”。他們表示，跟奧巴馬的關係鬧僵，危及美國兩黨對以色列的共同支持，把以色列最重要的朋友變成了敵人。

These Israeli grandees might have added that by turning Iran into a partisan issue Mr Netanyahu has actually made it easier for Mr Obama to strike a framework deal with Iran before the end-March deadline. US support for Israel does not mean Americans are content to see an Israeli prime minister trying to propel their president into a war. Most, I would guess, have had enough of military adventures in the Middle East. As for the other parties to the six-power talks, Mr Netanyahu’s latest volley will have simply confirmed long accumulated preconceptions.

這些以色列政要還可以補充稱，內塔尼亞胡把伊朗問題搞成一個黨派問題，實際上使奧巴馬更容易在3月底的截止期限前與伊朗達成一份框架協議。美國官方支持以色列，並不意味着美國人樂於看到以色列總理鼓動美國總統投入一場戰爭。我猜，大多數美國人已受夠了中東軍事冒險。在六方會談的其他參與方看來，內塔尼亞胡最近的一連串出擊只是驗證了各方長期積累的先入之見。

A second irony, of course, is that the Israeli prime minister is right when he says that the outline bargain on the table with Iran is fraught with risks. Tehran’s role as a sponsor of Hizbollah and vital prop for Syria’s Bashar al-Assad tells you all you need to know about the regime. A promise to reduce its stocks of uranium, scale down enrichment and submit to international scrutiny and inspection is not a guarantee that the regime will not seek to make a bomb.

當然，第二個諷刺在於，以色列總理表示，目前與伊朗達成協議的框架存在多種風險，他這麼說沒錯。德黑蘭方面支持真主黨(Hizbollah)，撐起敘利亞的巴沙爾•阿薩德(Bashar al-Assad)，都暴露了這個政權的本質。承諾降低鈾庫存、縮小鈾濃縮活動規模並接受國際監督與檢查，不能保證該政權不尋求製造核彈。

Mr Netanyahu says the alternative is to ratchet up sanctions until Iran abjures all nuclear activity, civilian as well as military. He knows, though, that is fantasy. Both the means and the end are implausible. Sanctions would never force Tehran to make such a commitment, nor stop it from building a bomb.

內塔尼亞胡表示，另一選項是加大制裁力度，直到伊朗宣誓放棄一切核活動，無論民用還是軍用。不過，他知道，那只是幻想。手段和目的都不可信。制裁永遠不會強迫伊朗做出如此承諾，也不能阻止其建造核彈。

No, what the Israeli leader really wants is a US-led war against Iran. What he also fails to say is that a new Middle East conflagration would be even less likely to snuff out Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. Bombing Iran would more likely convince hardliners that a nuclear capability was the only sure guarantee against US-imposed regime change.

不，這位以色列領導人真正想要的是一場美國領導的對伊朗戰爭。另一句他沒說出的話是，一場新的中東大火將甚至更不可能掐滅伊朗的核野心。轟炸伊朗將更可能讓強硬派相信，核武力量是對抗美國強加的政權更迭的唯一保證。

Iran has mastered the nuclear cycle. It also has what the experts call a “breakout capability”; sufficient material to produce at least one device, probably several. The knowledge cannot be bombed away. Nor, unless air attacks are open-ended, can outside powers prevent Iran from building new nuclear facilities secure against such raids.

伊朗已掌握了核循環，也擁有了專家所謂的“突破能力”：即擁有了足夠材料、能造出至少一枚核彈，很可能是好幾枚。相關知識是無法通過轟炸摧毀的。除非展開無限期空中打擊，否則外部力量也不能阻止伊朗建造可抵禦空襲的新核設施。

Facing the severe pain of sanctions, compounded by the sharp fall in oil prices, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has offered the west an opening that might change the dynamics of the relationship. For his part, Mr Obama is ready to accept a deal sufficiently robust to provide one year’s notice of any attempt to build a bomb.

面對制裁的巨大痛苦，加上油價大幅下跌，伊朗總統哈桑•魯哈尼(Hassan Rouhani)已向西方開了一個口子，雙方關係的格局有望改變。在奧巴馬方面，他已準備好接受一項協議——協議條款要足夠嚴格，使外界能提前一年瞭解伊朗建造核彈的任何企圖。

Susan Rice, Mr Obama’s national security adviser, says the US approach is to “distrust but verify”. That is not a bad summation. If the terms are nailed down — and there is still no certainty Tehran will accept them — such a bargain will be an imperfect compromise with one of the world’s more unpleasant and dangerous regimes. That would be a lot better than a futile war.

奧巴馬的國家安全顧問蘇珊•賴斯(Susan Rice)表示，美國的立場是“不信任，但仍要去核實”。這總結得不錯。如果相關條款能堵住任何漏洞——仍不確定伊朗是否會接受——這樣一份協議將是與世界上最討厭最危險的政權之一達成的不完美妥協。這種妥協將比一場徒勞的戰爭好得多。