歐洲夢在希臘破碎 Europe’s dream is dying in Greece

The shuttered banks of Greece represent a profound failure for the EU. The current crisis is not just a reflection of the failings of the modern Greek state, it is also about the failure of a European dream of unity, peace and prosperity.

希臘最近關閉了銀行，這標誌着歐盟的重大失敗。當前危機不僅反映了現代希臘國家的缺陷，也反映了追求團結、和平與繁榮的歐洲夢的破碎。

Over the past 30 years Europe has embraced its own version of the “end of history”. It became known as the European Union[TWEAK WORDING? SOMETHING LIKE: “IT CHOSE THE NAME EUROPEAN UNION”?]. The idea was that European nations could consign the tragedies of war, fascism and occupation to the past. By joining the EU, they could jointly embrace a better future based on democracy, the rule of law and the repudiation of nationalism.

過去30年，歐洲迎來了自己版本的“歷史的終結”。它成了廣爲人知的歐盟(EU)。人們認爲，歐洲國家能夠將戰爭、法西斯主義和佔領等等悲劇留給歷史。通過加入歐盟，歐洲國家可以共同擁抱基於民主、法治以及摒棄民族主義的更美好未來。

As Lord Patten, a former EU commissioner, once boasted, the success of the union ensured that Europeans now spent their time “arguing about fish quotas or budgets, rather than murdering one another”.

歐盟委員會(European Commission)前委員彭定康勳爵(Lord Patten)曾說，歐盟的成功保證了歐洲人如今把時間花在“爭論捕魚配額或預算，而不是相互殘殺”。

When the Greek colonels were overthrown in 1974, Greece became the pioneer of a new model for Europe — in which the restoration of democracy at a national level was secured by a simultaneous application to join the European Economic Community (as it then was).

1974年，希臘軍政府被推翻後，希臘成爲歐洲一種新模式的先驅——在國家層面恢復民主，與此同時，希臘也提交了加入歐洲經濟共同體（EEC，歐盟的前身）的申請。

Greece became the 10th member of the European club in 1981. Its early membership of an EU that now numbers 28 countries is a rebuke to those who now claim it has always been a peripheral member.

希臘1981年成爲這個歐洲俱樂部的第10個成員。希臘在歐盟中（如今包括28個國家）的早期成員國資格可以用來反駁那些聲稱它一直是外圍成員國的人。

The model first established in Greece — democratic consolidation, secured by European integration — was rolled out across the continent over the next three decades. Spain and Portugal, which had also cast off authoritarian regimes in the 1970s, joined the EEC in 1986. After the fall of the Berlin Wall, almost all the countries of the former Soviet bloc followed the Greek model of linking democratic change at home to a successful application to join the EU.

這種首先在希臘建立的模式——歐洲一體化保障下的民主鞏固——在後來30年間被推廣到整個歐洲大陸。同樣在上世紀70年代擺脫威權體制的西班牙和葡萄牙，於1986年加入了歐共體。柏林牆被推倒後，幾乎所有前蘇聯國家都效仿了希臘模式——將國內民主變革與成功申請加入歐盟結合起來。

For the EU itself, Greek-style enlargement became its most powerful tool for spreading stability and democracy across the continent. As one Polish politician put it to me shortly before his country joined the EU: “Imagine there is a big river running through Europe. On one side is Moscow. On the other side is Brussels. We know which side of the river we need to be on.”

對歐盟自身來說，希臘式的擴大成爲其在整個歐洲大陸推動穩定和民主的最強大工具。波蘭即將加入歐盟之前，該國一位政治家對我說：“想象一下，有一條大河貫穿歐洲。一邊是莫斯科，另一邊是布魯塞爾。我們知道自己需要到河的哪一邊。”

That powerful idea — that the EU

那種強大的觀念——歐盟代表好的政府和穩固的民主——一直在現代歐洲流傳。這就是爲什麼烏克蘭示威者2014年推翻維克托•亞努科維奇(Viktor Yanukovich)的腐敗政府時揮舞着歐盟旗幟的原因。

represented good government and secure democracy — has continued to resonate in modern Europe. It is why Ukrainian demonstrators were waving the EU flag when they overthrew the corrupt government of Viktor Yanukovich in 2014.

當前的危險是，過去在民主轉型與歐洲一體化相聯結方面扮演開拓者角色的希臘，如今亦可能成爲一個新的危險進程——歐盟解體——的象徵。當前的危機很容易導致希臘退出歐元區，並最終退出歐盟。這將破壞歐盟的根本命題，即加入這一歐洲俱樂部是對未來繁榮和穩定的最佳保障。

The danger now is that, just as Greece was once a trailblazer in linking a democratic transition to the European project, so it may become an emblem of a new and dangerous process: the disintegration of the EU. The current crisis could easily lead to the country leaving the euro and eventually the union itself. That would undermine the fundamental EU proposition: that joining the European club is the best guarantee of future prosperity and stability.

即使一個憤怒和貧困的希臘最終留在歐盟，歐盟和繁榮之間的聯繫也會被切斷。人們逐漸明白一個可怕的事實：歐盟不僅未能兌現其關於繁榮和團結的承諾，通過把希臘和其他歐盟成員國捆綁在一個失敗的關於歐元的經濟實驗之中，歐盟反而在主動摧毀財富、穩定和歐洲的團結。

Even if an angry and impoverished Greece ultimately remains inside the tent, the link between the EU and

希臘的地理位置具有高度戰略意義，就更加突顯了這種危險。希臘的南面是混亂的正在上演流血衝突的利比亞，北面是動盪的巴爾幹地區，而東面則是憤怒和復興的俄羅斯。

prosperity will have been ruptured. For the horrible truth is dawning that it

對於歐盟似乎打算放任希臘走向失敗，瞭解這一切的巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)政府越來越不敢置信。在華盛頓的一些人看來，歐洲人似乎忘記了在冷戰期間學到的關於希臘重要性的戰略教訓。

is not just that the EU has failed to deliver on its promises of prosperity

然而，這種看法對歐洲人來說是不公平的。面對華盛頓方面的指責，歐洲人的迴應是，歐盟之所以能夠運作，只是因爲這是一個法律和相互義務的共同體。如果你允許像希臘這樣的單個國家藐視這些法律和義務——比如在債務上違約——那麼這個俱樂部無論如何都會開始分崩離析。相較之下，如果你把希臘踢出去，還有一線機會把損害限制在一個國家之內。

and unity. By locking Greece and other EU countries into a failed economic experiment — the euro — it is now actively destroying wealth, stability and European solidarity.

這場危機對民主也有深遠的影響，民主正是30年前吸引希臘進入歐盟的原始凝聚力。希臘總理亞歷克西斯•齊普拉斯(Alexis Tsipras)現在認爲，歐盟不僅沒有確保希臘的民主，反而變成了希臘的敵人，踐踏了希臘人民的意願。

The dangers of that process are all the more pronounced because Greece is in a highly strategic location. To the south lies the chaos and bloodshed of Libya; to the north lies the instability of the Balkans; to the east, an angry and resurgent Russia.

當然，事實上這是一場不同民主授權的衝突，是希臘選民的意願與其他歐盟成員國選民（及納稅人）的意願之間的較量，前者希望擺脫緊縮，而後者則希望看到他們的貸款得到償還，不願意讓一個沒有改革的希臘繼續受益於歐盟的資金。

Knowing all this, the administration of Barack Obama is increasingly incredulous about the EU’s apparent willingness to let Greece fail. To some in Washington, it seems as if the Europeans have forgotten all the strategic lessons learnt during the cold war about the country’s importance.

在下週日的全民公投上，這兩種民主意願或許將痛苦地調和。如果希臘人投票決定接受歐盟債權人的要求——他們的政府剛剛拒絕了這些要求——希臘或許將繼續留在歐元區和歐盟之內。但那將是一個受到脅迫、憤憤不平的國家做出的決定。希臘還將是歐盟的一員，但它的歐洲夢將破碎。