庫爾德人成中東破局關鍵
The Kurds have never been as influential in the Middle East as they are today. They hold the balance of power in Iraq and Syria, and are in the midst of an insurrection in Turkey. But this Kurdish awakening is different from previous ones — in Iraq in the 1970s or Turkey in the 1990s. Powers great and small have to contend with Kurdish demands as never before.
庫爾德人在中東的影響力從來沒有像今天這樣大。在伊拉克和敘利亞，他們是維持平衡狀態的關鍵力量；在土耳其，他們發起反叛運動。但是，庫爾德人的此次覺醒不同於以往的兩次——上世紀70年代在伊拉克的那次、以及上世紀90年代在土耳其的那次。大大小小的勢力要挑戰庫爾德人的訴求，從未像現在這樣艱難。
The US finds itself reluctantly drawn into this Kurdish denouement; it needs the Kurds as much as it needs the Turks in its efforts to defeat Isis, the jihadi group. Yet America’s primary ally in Syria, the Kurdish Democratic Union party (PYD), is being bombarded by its longstanding Nato ally, Turkey. The PYD has proven itself to be the most, if not the only, effective force against Isis; almost all the territory the jihadis have lost since conquering parts of Iraq and Syria in 2014 has been to PYD militias working in tandem with the US air force. The Turks consider the PYD, which is intimately linked to the Turkish Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK), as nothing more than a terrorist organisation.
美國發現自己被動捲入了這場庫爾德大戲。在努力擊敗聖戰者組織“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯蘭國”(ISIS)的過程中，美國像需要土耳其人那樣需要庫爾德人。然而，美國在敘利亞的主要盟友——庫爾德民主聯盟黨(PYD)，遭到了美國在北約(Nato)中的長期盟友土耳其的連續轟炸。庫爾德民主聯盟黨事實上已經是打擊ISIS最有效（甚至可能是唯一有效）的力量；ISIS自2014年佔領伊拉克和敘利亞部分區域以來丟失的領土，幾乎全都是失給了庫爾德民主聯盟黨和美國空軍的聯合行動。土耳其人認爲，庫爾德民主聯盟黨無非是一個恐怖組織。庫爾德民主聯盟黨與土耳其的庫爾德工人黨(PKK)有密切聯繫。
While the US cannot satisfy all parties, the current conundrum also offers opportunities to Washington to push for a grand bargain between Turkey on the one hand and the Syrian and Turkish Kurds on the other that would benefit all sides involved in the region, as well as the US and its struggle against Isis.
儘管美國不可能滿足所有各方的要求，但當前困局也爲華盛頓提供了機會，可以努力去撮合土耳其與敘利亞和土耳其庫爾德人之間達成一筆重大交易。該交易將惠及中東所有相關方，以及美國和美國打擊ISIS的戰情。
There is also a sense of urgency as Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, mired in his own controversial effort to transform the Turkish republic from a parliamentary system into a presidential one that would give him wide if not unlimited powers, engages in a dangerous game of brinkmanship.
考慮到土耳其總統雷傑普吠伊普埃爾多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)正在玩一場危險的邊緣政策遊戲，此舉也具有一種緊迫感。埃爾多安自己的一種引發爭議的嘗試眼下也正陷於膠着——他正推動把土耳其共和國由議會制轉變爲總統制，從而爲自己謀取更大（甚至可能是不受限制）的權力。
He has raised the political ante not just by shelling PYD positions in Syria — shells are designed to hurt the PYD as much as disrupt the PYD-American relationship — but also attributing a recent terrorist attack in Ankara to the PYD, despite the latter’s denials and the rest of the world’s disbelief. Turkey does not want to differentiate between the PKK and the PYD, despite the efforts of PYD leader Salih Muslim to convince the Turks that the group has no design on Turkish territory and, on the contrary, seeks to co-operate with Ankara.
他已提高了政治賭注，不僅炮擊敘利亞境內的庫爾德民主聯盟黨陣地（其目的不僅在於減損庫爾德民主聯盟黨的力量，還在於破壞該黨和美國之間的關係），還把庫爾德民主聯盟黨說成是不久前發生在安卡拉的一次恐怖襲擊的幕後黑手（儘管該黨矢口否認，世界其他地區也不相信）。土耳其非要視庫爾德工人黨和庫爾德民主聯盟黨爲一丘之貉——儘管庫爾德民主聯盟黨領袖薩利赫穆斯利姆(Salih Muslim)努力讓土耳其人相信，該黨不僅不想染指土耳其領土，相反還尋求與土耳其政府合作。
What worries Mr Erdogan is that in three of the countries with sizeable Kurdish minorities — Turkey, Iraq and Syria — the Kurds are on the move. Only in Iran has the regimebeen more or less successful in holding down overt manifestations of Kurdish nationalism, and then only through repression.
令埃爾多安感到擔憂的是，在土耳其、伊拉克和敘利亞這三個人口占少數的庫爾德人達到相當數量的國家裏，庫爾德人都在活躍起來。唯有在伊拉克，當局差不多成功地壓制住了庫爾德民族主義的公開彰顯，但這還是靠的鎮壓。
Iraqi Kurds, thanks to American intervention, have now established an internationally recognised autonomous federal zone in northern Iraq. Ankara has excellent relations with the leadership of the Kurdistan Regional Government, KRG, and is its single-most important trading partner. The KRG remains an important, if incomplete, symbol of Kurdish self-determination.
得益於美國的干預，伊拉克的庫爾德人如今在伊拉克北部建立了一塊得到國際承認的聯邦自治區。土耳其政府與庫爾德地區政府(KRG)的領導人之間保持着融洽的關係，並是後者最重要的單一貿易伙伴。庫爾德地區政府仍是庫爾德民族自決的一個重要（雖然可能不充分）的標誌。
Turkish Kurds have either been in a state of insurrection or resolute political activism since the 1990s. That has been down to the PKK’s prowess and, more recently, because the main Kurdish political party, the People’s Democratic party, or HDP, performed extremely well — and won support from a broad range of liberal Turks — in the first of two national elections in 2015.
自上世紀90年代以來，土耳其庫爾德人不是處於反叛狀態，就是在開展堅決的政治行動。一直以來這要歸因於庫爾德工人黨的強大，近期而言，則也是因爲主要的親庫爾德派政黨人民民主黨(HDP)在2015年兩場大選中的第一場表現優異，並贏得了土耳其自由派人士的廣泛支持。
The Kurdish issue has come to dominate Turkey’s politics. In the process, it has also transformed itself from a primarily rural to an urban and far more sophisticated movement.
庫爾德人問題已成爲主導土耳其政治的一個議題。在這個過程中，它已逐漸地由一個主要侷限在農村地區的問題，轉變成爲一場立足都市的、比以往復雜得多的運動。
Mr Erdogan fears that out of the ashes of the Syrian civil war, a new Syrian-Kurdish KRG-like state will arise. Turkey could then face two autonomous Kurdish neighbours on its southern border. This may lead Turkey’s Kurds to seek the same. To his credit, Mr Erdogan had begun peace negotiations with the PKK. However, he repudiated the agreement (which had been signed by his lieutenants) when the PKK rejected his demand that it force the PYD to abandon its quest in northern Syria.
埃爾多安擔心，從敘利亞內戰的灰燼中，將走出一個新的、類似庫爾德地區政府的敘利亞庫爾德國家。屆時，土耳其在南部可能就要與兩個庫爾德人自治政府接壤了。這或許會推動土耳其的庫爾德人追求同等地位。值得稱道的是，埃爾多安曾經已經開啓與庫爾德工人黨的和談。然而，當庫爾德工人黨拒絕了埃爾多安提出的由該黨迫使庫爾德民主聯盟黨放棄在敘利亞北部行動的要求時，他拒絕了（他的手下簽署的）協議。
The present situation is unstable and could spin out of control, especially with Mr Erdogan calling on the US to choose between Turkey and the PYD. There is, however, a win-win bargain that the US could broker. In exchange for a ceasefire and withdrawal of PKK combatants from Turkey into northern Iraq and Syria, Turkey would promise not to interfere in Syrian Kurdish territories.
當前局勢並不穩定，還可能會發生失控，尤其是考慮到埃爾多安正呼籲美國在土耳其和庫爾德民主聯盟黨之間做出選擇。然而，美國有可能促成一項雙贏協議。爲換取停火和庫爾德工人黨武裝撤出土耳其、進入到伊拉克和敘利亞北部，土耳其可承諾不對敘利亞的庫爾德人所佔領土進行干預。
The advantages of this deal would include a cessation of the hostilities in Turkey that have left parts of Kurdish areas as devastated as Syrian cities, and claimed the lives of hundreds of civilians and more than 300 security personnel. A deal would also allow the PYD and the US to focus on Isis, while also strengthening the Syrian Kurds’ claim for an equitable post-civil war outcome.
這一協議的好處將包括，結束土耳其境內的敵對狀態，這種敵對已使得部分庫爾德人區域像敘利亞城市那樣滿目瘡痍，數千平民和逾300名安保人員喪生。該協議也將讓庫爾德民主聯盟黨和美國能夠專心對付ISIS，同時也將讓敘利亞庫爾德人要求在內戰後實現公平結果的主張更加有力。
