中國已成功改變南中國海現狀
Ashton Carter, US secretary of defence, led a chorus of international voices criticising China at the weekend Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual security forum in Singapore, warning that Beijing seems to be building “a great wall of self-isolation” in Asia.
上週末，美國國防部長阿什頓•卡特(Ashton Carter)牽頭國際多方在新加坡舉行的年度安全論壇——香格里拉對話(Shangri-La Dialogue)上批評中國，警告稱北京方面似乎正在亞洲打造一座“自我孤立的長城”。
But defence officials and analysts say the rhetorical battle against Beijing's territorial ambitions in the South China Sea obscures the fact that China has succeeded in changing the status quo in these resource-rich waters.
但防務官員和分析人士表示，針對北京方面在南中國海領土野心的論戰掩蓋了一個事實：中國已經成功改變了這些資源豐富的水域的現狀。
“Last year everyone was warning about the threat from China’s island-building plans but they’ve now constructed runways for fighters, ports and radar facilities in the South China Sea,” said one European diplomat in Singapore. “They’ve altered the facts on the water and there is nothing anyone can do about it now.”
“去年每個人都在警告中國造島計劃的威脅，但現在他們已經在南中國海修建了戰鬥機跑道、港口和雷達設施。”一名歐洲外交官在新加坡表示，“他們已經改變了這片水域的現狀，現在任何人對此都無能爲力了。”
Beijing claims almost the entire South China Sea and in recent years has become increasingly assertive in pushing its case against the other claimants: Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam.
中國對幾乎整個南中國海提出主權聲索，近年來還日益強硬地針對其他聲索方——文萊、馬來西亞、菲律賓、臺灣和越南——推進自己的主張。
Citing concerns about the impact on freedom of navigation and regional stability, the US has hit back, launching navy and air patrols close to the new Chinese islands and deepening ties with Asian nations including Vietnam and the Philippines.
美國以擔心航行自由和地區穩定受到影響爲由對此進行了反擊，在中國的新島附近區域進行海上和空中巡航，並加深了與越南和菲律賓等亞洲國家的關係。
The new Chinese facilities, built on reefs in the Spratly Islands, will extend the reach of the air force, navy and coast guard as well as the fleet of fishing boats sent out to maintain what Beijing calls its “historic rights” to this sea.
中國建立在斯普拉特利羣島（Spratly Islands，中國稱南沙羣島）岩礁上的新設施，將拓展中國空軍、海軍和海警的活動範圍，以及那些爲了維護中國所稱的對這片海域的“歷史性權利”而派出的捕魚船隊的活動範圍。
A senior defence official from Indonesia, which has protested against recent incursions into its waters by Chinese fishing boats and a coast guard vessel, said he was “very worried” about Beijing’s growing audacity.
一名印尼高級防務官員對近期中國的多艘漁船和一艘海警船侵入印尼水域提出了抗議，他表示北京方面的日益大膽讓他感到“非常憂慮”。
“Diplomats can criticise China but we badly need more equipment to boost our eyes and ears at sea so we can manage this threat better,” he said.
“外交官們可以批評中國，但我們迫切需要更多的設備來提高我們在海上的‘眼力’和‘耳力’，這樣我們才能更好地應對這一威脅，”他說。
In addition to the tensions on the water, China is also facing a legal battle at the permanent court of arbitration in The Hague, where the Philippines has brought a case challenging Beijing’s “nine-dash line” claim to almost the entire sea.
除了海上的緊張局勢，中國還在海牙的常設仲裁法院(Permanent Court of Arbitration)面臨着一場官司，菲律賓已向該院起訴中國，挑戰後者對幾乎整個南中國海聲索主權的“九段線”。
In Singapore, Mr Carter joined counterparts from Japan, France, the UK and other nations in accusing China of disregarding international law by refusing to recognise the right of the court to hear the case, in which a ruling is expected within months.
在新加坡，卡特與日本、法國、英國及其他國家的防長一道，指責中國無視國際法，拒不承認該院擁有審理此案的管轄權。此案的裁決預計將在幾個月內作出。
Chinese officials, who have struggled to find many supporters for their position beyond the likes of Russia and Belarus, retorted that the Philippines was twisting international law and that the US was hypocritical because it has yet to ratify the UN law of the sea under which the case was brought.
中國官員難以在俄羅斯、白俄羅斯等國之外找到太多支持中方立場的國家。面對指責，他們回擊稱，菲律賓歪曲了國際法，而美國則是虛僞的，因爲它自己至今都仍未正式批准此案所訴諸的《聯合國海洋法公約》(UN Convention on the Law of the Sea)。
Despite the condemnations of China’s stance in Singapore, Beijing hopes to use its economic might — and threat of further military pressure — to win over incoming Philippines president Rodrigo Duterte.
儘管中國的立場在新加坡受到了譴責，但北京方面希望利用其經濟實力（以及以進一步施加軍事壓力相威脅）來拉攏即將上任的菲律賓新總統羅德里戈•杜特爾特(Rodrigo Duterte)。
He has suggested that he could take a softer line on the maritime disputes and enter bilateral negotiations with Beijing in exchange for investment in the Philippines and joint exploitation of natural resources.
杜特爾特已暗示，他或將在海上領土爭端方面採取更溫和的立場，與北京方面進行雙邊談判，以換取中國對菲律賓的投資以及共同開發自然資源。
“The big wild card in the South China Sea right now is Mr Duterte and whether he seeks talks with China,” said Euan Graham, a security analyst at the Lowy Institute, a think-tank in Sydney.
澳大利亞智庫洛伊研究所(Lowy Institute)的安全問題分析家尤安•格雷厄姆(Euan Graham)表示：“如今，南中國海最大的變數就是杜特爾特以及他是否尋求與中國進行談判。”
The question mark over Mr Duterte, who takes office at the end of the month, highlights how China can use its economic and military power to support its position, regardless of international criticism.
杜特爾特將於本月底正式就職，關於他的不確定性突顯出中國如何利用經濟和軍事實力支撐自己的立場——不論國際社會如何批評。
“Don’t think China can be ganged up against,” said Yao Yunzhu, a defiant but good-humoured Chinese major-general who was busily fighting back against US rhetoric at the Shangri-La Dialogue. “China is too deeply integrated into the world, economically, politically and in terms of security.”
“不要以爲可以拉幫結派對付中國，”中國少將姚雲竹表示，“中國在經濟、政治以及安全方面都極深地融入了世界。”在此次香格里拉對話上，這位強硬但不失幽默的中國少將一直忙於反擊美方的言論。
