聯合國祕書長競選中的俄美博弈

After months of speculation, the race to become the next UN Secretary-General has reached the point at which support for the official contenders is being tested where it really counts.

在經歷了數月的猜測之後，聯合國(UN)祕書長的競選已達到這樣一個節點：對正式競選者的支持正在關鍵地方受到考驗。

Two rounds of straw balloting, in which countries are invited to “encourage” or “discourage” the candidacy of each nominee, have already been held by the Security Council.

聯合國安理會(UN Security Council)已主持過兩輪意向性投票，即邀請各國選擇“鼓勵”或“不鼓勵”每位被提名人競選。

The US candidate of choice is Susanna Malcorra, the current foreign minister of Argentina and former chief of staff to Ban Ki-moon.

而美國青睞的候選人則是阿根廷現任外長、曾任潘基文(Ban Ki-moon)幕僚長的蘇珊娜•馬爾科拉(Susanna Malcorra)。

Unless something significant changes, the Security Council may need to find a compromise candidate. The most obvious solution would be to rally behind a woman from eastern Europe, of which there are only two left in the field following the withdrawal of Vesna Pusic, Croatian foreign minister.

除非出現重大變化，否則聯合國安理會可能需要找到一位折中的候選人。最明顯的解決辦法將是支持一位來自東歐的女性候選人——在克羅地亞前外長韋斯娜•普希奇(Vesna Pusic)退出競選之後，符合這種條件的只有兩位候選人了。

One is Natalia Gherman, foreign minister of Moldova, and the other is Irina Bokova, the current head of Unesco. With only three encourages and 10 discourages at the last time of asking, Gherman’s support base is probably too narrow.

一位是摩爾多瓦前外交部長納塔利婭•蓋爾曼(Natalia Gherman)，另一位是聯合國教科文組織(Unesco)現任總幹事伊琳娜•博科娃(Irina Bokova)。蓋爾曼在上一次的投票中獲得了3票鼓勵和10票不鼓勵，她的支持基礎可能過於狹窄。博科娃獲得了7票鼓勵和7票不鼓勵，形勢看起來更爲有利。

Bokova looks better placed with seven encourages and seven discourages. A former Nato fellow, educated both in Russia and in the US, she is known to have personal support within Hilary Clinton’s inner circle and constructive working relations with Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister.

博科娃曾經在北約訪學，並在俄羅斯和美國接受過教育，據悉她獲得了希拉里•克林頓核心圈子的個人支持，而且還與俄羅斯外長謝爾蓋•拉夫羅夫(Sergei Lavrov)有建設性的工作關係。

A lot has changed in the way that the UN chooses its Secretary-General. The process is more open and competitive than ever before.

聯合國挑選祕書長的方式發生了巨大變化。這一過程比以往任何時候都更加開放和競爭激烈。

Yet it remains the case that the strongest candidate is often the one that engenders least opposition within the P5 rather than the greatest support among the UN membership as a whole.

然而，有一點沒有變：最有力的候選人往往是在5個常任理事國中引起最小反對的候選人，而不是在所有聯合國成員國中獲得最多支持的候選人。

That may offend our understanding of how elections are supposed to work, but it was the basis on which the UN was founded. Better to bind the most powerful nations in by giving them the power of veto than risk going the way of the League of Nations.

這可能與我們對選舉運作機制的理解相悖，但這是聯合國建立的基礎。與其冒險重蹈國際聯盟(League of Nations)的覆轍，不如通過給予實力最強的國家否決權而將它們綁在一起。