對朝非法貿易影響制裁效果
It is difficult to gauge the impact of the increased sanctions imposed on North Korea, with reports of both plummeting exports in the last year and increasing illicit trade of banned minerals and arms.
U.S. President Donald Trump's “maximum pressure” strategy aims to increase sanctions on North Korea and force the Kim Jong Un government to seek relief by agreeing to give up its threatening nuclear weapons and ballistic missile program, or face increasing hardship and possible collapse from within. If sanctions fail to end the North Korean nuclear threat, the Trump administration has emphasized it is prepared to use military force, as well.
The latest U.S.-led round of sanctions at the United Nations Security Council, which were imposed in August and September of 2017, produced a total export ban on North Korea's $3 billion coal and other mineral industries, its $800 million clothing manufacturing output, and its lucrative seafood industry, as well as cutting oil imports by a third.
China, which accounts for over 90 percent of North Korea's total trade, reported a 37 percent drop in exports from the North in 2017 as a result of the sanctions. If fully enforced, the restrictions would cut the North's exports by 90 percent in 2018, a loss estimated to be worth $2.3 billion. Independent media reports have confirmed significantly reduced trade and business activity in Dandong, the Chinese border city where most trade with North Korea occurs.
A number of Chinese banks have also reportedly restricted North Korea financial activities, in compliance with U.N. sanctions, which is rapidly reducing Pyongyang's foreign currency reserves.
There are concerns that China, Russia and other counties are illicitly bolstering the North Korean economy through the smuggling of banned commodities, along with arms and chemical weapons sales, and cyber attacks.
Portions of a confidential United Nations report that was recently made public said North Korea earned close to $200 million from exporting coal and other banned commodities last year by using false documents and complicit foreign companies in China, Malaysia, Russia and Vietnam.
While Beijing and Moscow voted in favor of imposing tough sanctions on North Korea in the Security Council, both also want to maintain economic and political stability on the Korean Peninsula, and have called for increased negotiations to peacefully resolve the nuclear stand-off.
There have been reports that Russia is becoming a new transit hub for banned North Korean coal to compensate for the export ban in China. Moscow and Pyongyang have denied these illicit coal trade accusations. Even if true, Russia accounts for only 2 percent of North Korea's trade.
In recent months Japan also reported four suspected illegal transfers at sea between sanctioned North Korean vessels and international ships that were witnessed by surveillance aircraft.
The U.S. in February issued new unilateral sanctions on companies and vessels linked to North Korean shipping to restrict illicit ship- to-ship transfers. Washington tried to include forced maritime interceptions of North Korean vessels in the last round of U.N. sanctions but could not convince Chins and Russia to agree.朝鮮去年出口額驟降，但同時礦物和武器非法貿易增加，使得目前對朝鮮實施更嚴厲制裁的影響很難衡量。
美國總統川普的“最大壓力”戰略旨在增加對朝鮮的制裁，迫使金正恩政府同意放棄其威脅性的核武器和彈道導彈計劃，否則陷入更大的困境，可能導致內部崩潰。如果制裁無法結束朝鮮的核威脅，川普政府強調也將準備使用武力。
在2017年8月和9月實施的、由美國主導的聯合國安理會最新一輪對朝制裁，包括全面禁止朝鮮價值30億美元的煤炭和其他礦物的出口，其8億美元的服裝製造業產出，其利潤豐厚的海鮮產業，以及削減石油進口的三分之一。
朝中貿易佔朝鮮貿易總額的90％以上。中國稱2017年對朝出口額由於制裁而下降37％。如果制裁全面執行，將導致2018年朝鮮出口減少90％，損失估計大約23億美元。獨立媒體消息證實，在與朝鮮貿易最集中的中國邊境城市丹東，貿易和商業活動明顯減少。
據報道，根據聯合國的制裁措施，一些中國銀行也限制了朝鮮的金融活動，導致平壤的外匯儲備迅速降低。
但有人擔心，中國、俄羅斯和其他國家通過走私禁運商品、化學武器，以及網絡攻擊等非法活動支撐朝鮮經濟。
最近公佈的一份聯合國機密報告的部分內容顯示，朝鮮去年通過使用虛假文件，與在中國、馬來西亞、俄羅斯和越南的外國公司共同進行的煤炭和其他被禁商品貿易，爲朝鮮盈利近2億美元。
雖然北京和莫斯科投票支持安理會對朝鮮實施強硬制裁，但兩國都希望維持朝鮮半島的經濟和政治穩定，並呼籲加強談判以和平解決在朝鮮核問題上的對峙。
有報道稱，俄羅斯正在成爲朝鮮禁運煤炭的新中轉樞紐，以填補中國的出口禁令帶來的空白。莫斯科和平壤否認了這些非法煤炭貿易的指控。不過即使事實如此，俄羅斯也只佔朝鮮貿易的2％。
日本近幾個月來還報告說，偵察機的信息顯示了4起涉嫌在受到制裁的朝鮮船隻和國際船隻之間的海上非法轉運。
美國2月份對與朝鮮有關的航運公司和船隻公佈了新的單方面制裁措施，以限制船對船的非法轉運。華盛頓試圖在上一輪聯合國制裁中採取強制攔截朝鮮船隻的措施，但無法說服中國和俄羅斯就此達成一致。
