馬琳•勒龐不再是黑馬政治家

The most distinctive characteristic of the French presidential election campaign so far has been its dramatic challenge to the French establishment. Former conservative leaders Nicolas Sarkozy and Alain Juppé were soundly defeated in the Republican primary, while the abysmally unpopular Fran?ois Hollande was forced to withdraw from the race — the first time a sitting president has been too weak to stand for re-election. To complete the rout, prime minister Manuel Valls was pushed out of the Socialist primary by the more radical Beno?t Hamon.

目前爲止，此次法國總統大選最與衆不同的特徵，是它給法國建制派帶來的巨大挑戰。前保守派領導人尼古拉?薩科齊(Nicolas Sarkozy)和阿蘭?朱佩(Alain Juppé)在法國共和黨(Republican)初選中徹底落敗，而極不受歡迎的弗朗索瓦?奧朗德(Fran?ois Hollande)被迫退出角逐——現任總統弱勢到不競選連任的地步，這是頭一次。讓建制派的潰敗成爲定局的是，前總理曼努埃爾?瓦爾斯(Manuel Valls)在社會黨(Socialist)初選中敗給了更激進的伯努瓦?阿蒙(Beno?t Hamon)。

This anti-incumbent surge echoes the Anglo-American insurgencies that recently produced the Brexit vote and the election of Donald Trump. But it also expresses a widespread French distrust of political parties, itself part of an older anti-establishment populist tradition. “Sortez les sortants” (“Kick the bums out”), the slogan of the 1950s populist politician Pierre Poujade, could well serve as the motto of the 2017 campaign.

這股反現任浪潮呼應了在英美出現的反叛——最近造就了英國退歐的公投結果以及唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)當選美國總統。但這也反映了在法國普遍存在的對政治黨派的不信任——這種不信任本身是過去反建制派民粹主義傳統的一部分。上世紀50年代民粹主義政客皮埃爾?布熱德(Pierre Poujade)的口號——“把混子踢出局”(Sortez les sortants)，同樣很適合作爲2017年大選的座右銘。

Turbulence has now become the defining feature of the campaign. The Republicans’ candidate, Fran?ois Fillon, who at the end of 2016 looked like he was coasting to an easy victory, has become mired in a scandal after the satirical newspaper Le Canard Encha?né uncovered how he allegedly turned his parliamentary allowances into family benefits over a period of more than two decades.

如今動盪已經成了此次大選的決定性特徵。在2016年底時看似會輕鬆取勝的法國共和黨候選人弗朗索瓦?菲永(Fran?ois Fillon)，在諷刺性報道見長的報紙《鴨鳴報》(Le Canard Encha?né)曝光其涉嫌在長達20多年的時間裏，把議會津貼轉爲家庭福利後，陷入醜聞之中。

Although Mr Fillon survived the revelations, and offered a (grudging) apology, the scandal has damaged his position in the polls. The affair also revealed the underlying frailty of his campaign, widely perceived as unimaginative, lacking a presidential grand narrative and incoherent: for all his claims to represent fundamental change, Mr Fillon was, after all, Mr Sarkozy’s prime minister for five years.

儘管菲永挺過了那次曝光並（勉強）作了道歉，但這一醜聞損害了他在民調中的地位。此次事件也暴露了他的競選的潛在弱點：儘管他聲稱自己代表着徹底改革，但畢竟他給薩科齊當了5年的總理。菲永的競選也被普遍認爲缺乏想象力、缺少總統應該具備的宏大敘事並且前後不連貫。

The immediate beneficiary of Mr Fillon’s misfortunes was Emmanuel Macron, Mr Hollande’s former economy minister, who is running as an independent centrist. Mr Macron’s appeal lies in his youthful energy, intelligence, cosmopolitan outlook and his belief that the French people are tired of the hackneyed debates between left and right.

菲永醜聞的直接受益者是奧朗德的前經濟部長埃馬紐埃爾?馬克龍(Emmanuel Macron)——目前以獨立的中間派身份參加競選。馬克龍的吸引力在於他的朝氣蓬勃、才智、國際化的視野、以及他相信法國民衆已經厭倦了左右翼之間陳腐的辯論。

Borrowing from the Poujadiste playbook and pitching himself as an outsider, he saw his ratings surge as he briefly overtook Mr Fillon in the polls. But Mr Macron, too, has now become embroiled in controversy: his description of the French colonial era in Algeria as a “crime against humanity” provoked an outcry among conservatives.

馬克龍借鑑了布熱德主義(Poujadiste)的劇本，把自己定位成局外人，從而支持率飆升，曾在民調中短暫超越了菲永。但眼下馬克龍也陷入了爭議之中：他把法國在阿爾及利亞的殖民時期形容爲“反人類罪行”，這引發了保守派的強烈抗議。

Interesting in itself as a measure of the continuing incapacity of French elites to address France’s colonial legacy, the row also underscores Mr Macron’s greatest frailty: his vulnerability to attack as soon as he offers specific pronouncements (so far, his campaign has been decidedly thin on detail). More fundamentally, as a graduate of the école Nationale d’Administration, the cocoon for the French elite, a former banker at Rothschild’s and close adviser to the president, his claims to represent renewal are unsustainable.

這場反映了法國精英持續無法應對法國殖民遺產的爭論本身很有意思，同時也突顯了馬克龍最大的弱點：他一提出具體聲明，就容易受到攻擊（目前爲止，他的競選在細節上明顯十分薄弱）。更根本的是，作爲法國國家行政學院(école Nationale d'Administration)——法國精英的孵化器——的畢業生、洛希爾銀行(Rothschild & Cie Banque)的前銀行家、以及法國總統的親密顧問，他聲稱自己代表革新的說法站不住腳。

The misfortunes of Messrs Fillon and Macron should have provided a perfect opportunity for the two main candidates of the left, Mr Hamon and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who both espouse a form of progressive populism. Their programmes overlap in a number of significant respects — notably on the need for a new constitutional settlement in the form of a “Sixth Republic”, the abolition of controversial labour laws and higher taxes on the wealthy.

菲永和馬克龍二人的黴運本應該爲剩下的兩名主要左翼候選人帶來天賜良機——伯努瓦?阿蒙和讓-呂克?梅朗雄(Jean-Luc Mélenchon)，兩人都支持某種進步民粹主義。阿蒙和梅朗雄的方針在很多重要方面都存在重合——特別是主張需要代表“第六共和國”(Sixth Republic)的新的憲法，廢除具有爭議的勞工法並對富人增稅。

These convergences could have provided the basis for a common platform, thereby energising the leftwing rank and file who have been in a catatonic state during the Hollande presidency. But it appears that negotiations between the two men have broken down, with the abrasive Mr Mélenchon declaring that he had “no intention of going and hitching myself to a hearse”.

這些共通點本可以爲建立共同的政治綱領奠定基礎，從而促使那些在奧朗德任期內死氣沉沉的左翼普通成員活躍起來。但二人之間的談判似乎破裂了，梅朗雄不客氣地宣稱，他“無意搭上一輛靈車”。

With a neutered right, a flaky centre and a divided left, the only beneficiary has been Marine Le Pen — fittingly, as her far-right National Front is the inheritor of the Poujadiste tradition. She is now clearly the frontrunner, and though the polls predict that she would lose to any mainstream candidate in the second round of the presidential election, the margins of her projected defeats are getting thinner.

在右翼沒戲、中間派地位不穩、左翼存在內部分歧的情況下，唯一的受益者是馬琳?勒龐(Marine Le Pen)——她領導的極右翼黨派國民陣線(National Front)繼承了布熱德主義傳統的衣鉢。眼下她明顯成了領跑者，儘管民調預測她會在第二輪總統競選中輸給主流候選人，但對於她會以多大差距落敗的預測值正變得越來越小。

Until now, the prevailing view has been that it is inconceivable that France could elect a National Front president. Yet we have heard that before, closer to home. If French political elites do not get their act together soon, a Poujadiste “Frexiter” and admirer of Mr Trump could well find herself in the Elysée Palace in May.

目前爲止，普遍觀點是法國選出一位國民陣線領導人擔任總統是一件不可思議的事。不過我們之前聽到過同樣的話，就在我們自己的國家。如果法國政治精英不快點採取有效行動的話，一位崇拜特朗普的布熱德主義“法國退歐派”可能會在5月發現自己已經入主愛麗捨宮(Elysée Palace)了。