衆巨頭封堵 看阿里巴巴移動業務的侷限性

U.S. Internet companies like Facebook and Google live or die on mobile. The same will be true of Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba.

對於Facebook和谷歌(Google)這樣的美國互聯網公司來說，生死取決於移動業務；對於中國電子商務巨頭阿里巴巴集團(Alibaba Group)來說，也同樣如此。

Alibaba's filing for a U.S. initial public offering boasts rapid growth and rising margins, but it raises concerns around its ability to make money off mobile traffic. This is no idle matter: Companies that can't show their business migrating well from desktops to mobile devices have justifiably fallen out of investor favor, as more people access the Internet through smartphones and tablets.

在其美國首次公開募股(IPO)申請文件中，阿里巴巴提到了公司的快速增長以及不斷擴大的利潤率，但是這也令外界對於該公司手機流量盈利能力的擔憂升溫。這種擔憂並非無足輕重的問題。由於越來越多的人通過智能手機和平板電腦連入互聯網，所以如果一家公司的業務無法展現出從個人電腦到移動設備的良好轉變，那麼這家公司將無疑失去投資者的青睞。

Alibaba says mobile accounted for 19.7% of total transactions on its e-commerce platforms in the fourth quarter of last year, up from 7.4% in the same period a year earlier. But that is only one piece of the puzzle.

阿里巴巴稱，去年第四季度，移動設備在其電子商務平臺總交易額中佔19.7%，高於上年同期7.4%的佔比。不過，這僅僅是整體情況中的一個部分。

For Amazon and eBay, mobile has been a blessing as it allows more users to shop for longer, driving volumes higher, says Bernstein analyst Carlos Kirjner. But companies that rely on advertising have faced greater challenges due to the limited real estate on smartphone screens.

Bernstein的分析師Carlos Kirjner表示，對於亞馬遜公司()和eBay來說，移動設備是一件好事，因爲這類設備可以使得用戶購物時間延長，並增加交易量。不過，由於智能手機的屏幕有限，依賴於廣告的互聯網企業可能面臨較大挑戰。

Alibaba is a mix of the two models. Tmall, its newer, higher-end shopping platform charges merchants a percentage of total sales. For this business, increased mobile adoption should be a clear positive.

阿里巴巴的業務模式則分爲兩種。推出時間較短、較高端的購物平臺天貓(Tmall)從商戶整體銷售額中收取一定比例的費用。對於這一塊業務，移動設備的利用程度增加應該明顯是一個積極因素。

But Taobao, the site where small business and private individuals go to sell their wares, is free to use. It sells advertising space to merchants, and charges them for more prominent placement on the marketplace website. Room for both is more limited on smartphone screens, says Mr. Kirjner.

不過，針對中小型商戶和個人商戶的淘寶(Taobao)則是免費使用。淘寶向商戶出售廣告位置，同時也會幫助商戶調到網站更加明顯的位置並從中收費。Kirjner稱，受制於智能手機屏幕，這兩項服務的收入空間都較爲有限。

So understanding how much revenue comes from Tmall and how much from Taobao is crucial for investors to judge the outlook on mobile monetization. Unfortunately, Alibaba neglected to share this crucial information with investors.

對於投資者來說，若想要評斷阿里巴巴手機業務的盈利前景，對天貓和淘寶收入各自佔比多少有所瞭解具有至關重要的作用。但是不幸的是，阿里巴巴並沒有將這一關鍵信息分享給投資者。

Alibaba does say it expects monetization rates to be lower on mobile as compared with PCs. But the company seems unconcerned, explicitly stating that it has no plans for now to focus on maximizing mobile monetization. Throughout the prospectus Alibaba is at pains to stress a lack of focus on short-term profits, probably enabled by a corporate structure giving insiders control over most of the board.

不過阿里巴巴表示，預計移動設備上的盈利水平低於個人電腦。但是阿里巴巴似乎並不擔心這個問題，公司明確表示目前沒有專注於將移動設備盈利水平最大化的計劃。在整個招股書中，阿里巴巴花費了大量力氣強調對於短期利潤關注的缺乏，導致這種情況出現的原因可能在於董事會主要由其內部人士掌控。

Investors may not be so sanguine. Concern over mobile monetization was one factor that drove down Facebook shares after they listed in 2012. The stock rebounded sharply once Facebook was able to show traction in mobile, notably from the second quarter of 2013 when mobile advertising jumped as a percentage of total ad revenue.

投資者可能沒有這麼樂觀。Facebook 2012年上市後，投資者對該公司移動業務業績的擔憂就是導致其股價下跌的因素之一。Facebook的移動業務隨後顯示出了增長跡象，尤其是在2013年第二季度，在該公司移動業務廣告收入佔廣告總收入的比重上升之後，Facebook的股價出現了大幅反彈。

In China, mobile is likely to be even more important as many new Internet users skip desktops and rely mainly on smartphones. The number of mobile Internet users in China rose 19% last year to 500 million, nearly twice as fast as overall Internet users, according to according to state research center CNNIC.

在中國，不少互聯網新用戶已不再使用臺式電腦，而主要用智能手機上網，因此移動業務在中國可能會變得更加重要。來自中國互聯網信息中心(CNNIC)的數據顯示，去年中國的移動互聯網用戶數量增長19%，達到5億戶，增幅較整體互聯網用戶增幅高出近一倍。

Mobile is also where Alibaba will encounter the fiercest competition,notably from archrival Tencent. This diversified Internet giant has the advantage in mobile thanks to WeChat, a massively popular messaging app that is native to smartphones.

移動業務也將是阿里巴巴面臨最激烈競爭的領域，尤其是來自騰訊(Tencent)的競爭。騰訊推出的基於智能手機的通訊應用微信(WeChat)大受歡迎，令這家多元化互聯網巨頭在移動領域佔得先機。

Tencent is now using WeChat to direct potential shoppers to , a smaller Chinese e-commerce company, also preparing for a U.S. listing, in which it holds a 15% stake. It is also integrating its payment platform Tenpay, which competes with Alibaba-linked Alipay, into WeChat.

騰訊目前正在通過微信將潛在消費者導向規模較小的中資電子商務公司京東()的網站，京東也正準備在美國上市，騰訊持有該公司15%的股權。騰訊還計劃將支付平臺財付通(Tenpay)與微信整合在一起。財付通是阿里巴巴旗下支付寶(Alipay)的競爭對手。

Alibaba isn't sitting on its hands. It has amassed a 66% stake in UCWeb, a popular mobile Web browser, and recently struck a deal to take full control of mapping service AutoNavi. Alibaba says it will likely make more acquisitions in this area. Yet these investments, plus intense competition in the mobile space, may start to eat away at Alibaba's sky-high operating margins, which were north of 50% in the fourth quarter.

阿里巴巴並沒有坐以待斃。該公司已收購熱門移動瀏覽器UCWeb 66%的股份，近期還達成了收購地圖服務公司高德軟件(AutoNavi)全部股權的交易。阿里巴巴表示，可能將在移動領域收購更多資產。但這些投資，再加上移動領域的激烈競爭，可能會開始侵蝕阿里巴巴水平極高的營業利潤率，該公司去年第四季度的營業利潤率超過50%。

Given the importance of mobile, investors may forgive Alibaba for some heavy spending. But the experience of Facebook and others indicates Alibaba will need to show before long that it is translating eyeballs on smartphones into real money.

考慮到移動業務的重要性，投資者可能會理解阿里巴巴的一些大規模支出。但Facebook和其他一些公司的經歷表明，阿里巴巴不久就需要向投資者顯示，該公司能將消費者對其移動業務的關注轉化成真金白銀的利潤。