沃爾沃與特斯拉力爭躋身豪華品牌第一梯隊

There is an old rule that economists follow: In making a forecast, give a number or a date—but not both. It is a rule that executives in the autindustry ignore with surprising frequency. In instances involving Volvand Tesla TSLA -1.82% , twcompanies whose names are seldom spoken in the same breath, the lack of caution in setting future sales targets may cause them more trouble than a mere fender bender.

經濟學家通常會遵守一條老規矩：做預測時，要麼給個數字，要麼給個日期，但不能兩個都給。但汽車業的高管們卻經常忽略這條法則。就以沃爾沃（Volvo）和特斯拉（Tesla）爲例，這兩家公司的名字很少會被拿出來相提並論，但是他們在設置未來的銷售目標時都缺乏謹慎，這或許會給他們帶來大麻煩。

After years of drift, VolvCars is trying trebuild its product line under its Chinese owners Geely Motors. Nlonger content tbe solely identified as a maker of boxy station wagons, Volvhas set its sights on becoming a full-fledged luxury manufacturer—on the same level as the industry’s top producers.

經過多年的浮浮沉沉，沃爾沃被新東家中國吉利汽車（Geely Motors）收購後，正在重新構建產品線。沃爾沃不想再被認爲只是一家旅行車製造商，而是着眼於成爲一個貨真價實的豪華車廠家，與其他頂級豪車品牌平起平坐。

Its goals are ambitious, aggressive, and yes, audacious. Leading the effort treach them is CEHakan Samuelsson, whcame tVolvfrom Munich-based truck maker MAN in 2009. In an interview with Automotive News, Samuelsson set unexpectedly steep targets for Volvo’s recovery. Among the highlights:

它的目標雄心勃勃，激進，甚至可以說大膽。現任CEO哈肯o薩繆爾森於2009年從慕尼黑卡車製造企業MAN公司跳槽至沃爾沃，在近日接受《汽車新聞》（Automotive News）採訪時，薩繆爾森意外地給沃爾沃的復甦設置了非常大膽的目標，其中包括：

A return tannual U.S. sales of 100,000 plus by 2016;

到2016年，使沃爾沃在美國市場的年銷量恢復到10萬臺以上；

Arrival in the “elite pantheon of global luxury brands” in three tfour years;

3至4年內，進入“全球豪車品牌的精英梯隊”；

Achievement of 800,000 in global sales in 2020.

到2020年，全球銷量達到80萬臺。

Developing a true luxury brand that commands a premium price on the strength of its name can’t be done overnight, as Volvshould know. When he was running Lincoln, Jim Farley, whnow heads Ford Europe, used testimate that 15 t20 years would be required televate Lincoln intthe ranks of luxury players. Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi, the only three authentic members of the group (excluding exotics like Ferrari and smaller makers like Jaguar) have been at it for decades and have earned their pedigrees with achievements in racing as well as in engineering and technology. Even Lexus doesn’t qualify for this elite grouping because of its weak standing outside the U.S and its lack of any racing credentials.

開發一款真正能賣出高價的豪車品牌並非一夜之功，沃爾沃應該清楚這個道理。現任福特公司（Ford）歐洲負責人的吉姆o法利在之前運營林肯品牌時曾經預測道，要讓林肯躋身豪華品牌之列，可能需要15至20年的時間。不算法拉利（Farrari）等超跑品牌和捷豹（Jaguar）等小型廠商，目前市場上真正算是豪華品牌的只有奔馳（Mercedes-Benz）、寶馬（BMW）和奧迪（Audi），他們已經雄據豪車市場幾十年了，而且是靠工藝、科技，甚至是賽車領域的全面成就纔有了今天的優勢。連雷克薩斯（Lexus）都算不上是高端市場的“第一梯隊”，因爲它在美國以外市場的美譽度較弱，而且它在賽車領域缺乏建樹。

Getting tthe top tier requires a financial commitment that Volvhasn’t made. Cadillac has invested billions of dollars in new models since 2000 in a bid tregain its luxury standing and still has more tdo; it is now developing a V-8 powered flagship sedan for 2016. Volvo’s flagship is the 2015 XC90 sport utility, which is powered by a far-less imposing inline four-cylinder engine.

要想進入“第一梯隊”，需要在財政上做出大量投資，而沃爾沃目前還沒有進行這樣的投資。自從2000年以來，凱迪拉克（Cadillac）已經投資數十億美元以重振其豪華品牌的地位，目前仍然有很多工作要做。現在，凱迪拉克正在爲2016年研發一款V8引擎的旗艦車型。沃爾沃目前的旗艦車型是2015款XC90 SUV，搭載的是魅力小得多的四缸發動機。

Volvhasn’t made its quixotic quest any easier with its recent performance. While it claims a long list of safety firsts—three-point seatbelts, rear-facing child seats, air bags—Volvcars have always been positioned as sub- luxury or “entry luxe”, marketed tbody of devoted fans whfavor practicality over prestige and performance. Volvwas neglected during its years of ownership by Ford (1999-2010), as its product cycles stretched out longer and longer and other makers caught up on the safety front. 2007, and sfar this year its sales have reached only 47,823 (vs. 52, 112 for the same period in 2013).

同時，沃爾沃最近的表現也不令人看好它的唐吉訶德式目標。雖然沃爾沃標榜它擁有一長串安全創新，比如三點式安全帶、向後兒童座椅和各種氣囊，但沃爾沃的車型還是經常被定位爲“次豪華”或是“入門級豪車”，瞄準的往往是那些更注重實用性而不是聲譽和性能的消費者。在老東家福特旗下時（1999至2010年），它的產品週期拉得越來越長，同時其他廠商也在安全性上追趕了上來，沃爾沃逐漸被市場忽視了。今年至今爲止，它的銷量只有47,823輛（去年同期有52,112輛）。

Samuelsson is pinning his hopes on the belief that Volvo’s squeaky-clean reputation, which served it swell in the past, will resonate with a new generation of buyers. “If you look at what is happening in society, our brand promise is in line with developments,” he said in the interview. “People want tshow that they are taking responsibility for safety and taking responsibility for the environment. I think in the future that will more and more be a premium value.”

沃爾沃一向以“極其環保”著稱，這種聲譽曾經讓該公司受益良多。這次薩繆爾森也對這種聲譽寄予厚望，希望它能引起新一代消費者的共鳴。他在採訪中表示：“如果你注意社會目前的發展動向，你就會發現我們的品牌承諾與這種態勢是一致的。人們想要展示他們正在對安全和環境負責。我認爲在未來，這將爲沃爾沃品牌增添一種溢價。”

But Samuelsson overlooks changes in the market that will squeeze Volvfrom both the bottom and the top. The German Three have been rolling out more and more new models, many at price points that used tbe considered entry-luxe. Buyers shopping for a European brand can now choose between, say, Mercedes three-pointed star and Volvo’s ring and arrow emblem (a symbol for iron in Sweden but representing male sexuality in the U.S). That’s a tough comparison for Volvo.

但是薩繆爾森忽視了市場正在發生的變化，這種變化正在高低兩端給沃爾沃造成擠壓。首先，“德系三巨頭”一直在推出新車型，其中不少車型的價格都是過去所謂“入門級豪車”的價格。打個比方，現在想購買歐系車的消費者可以從奔馳和沃爾沃之間選一款。那麼他是會選奔馳的“三角星”，還是沃爾沃的圓環加箭頭呢（沃爾沃的LOGO造型在瑞典是鐵的象徵，但在美國則代表着男性象徵）？對於沃爾沃來說，這是一個艱難的比較。

At the same time, volume brands like Toyota and Hyundai have been steadily adding upgraded features and entertainment, safety, and performance options that used tonly be available on luxury models. That leaves very little space in the middle for brands like Acura, Infiniti, Lincoln – or Volvo. ” “Volvo’s goals aren’t completely unattainable but even if Volvo’s decisions are perfect, the competitive landscape is extremely challenging tthrive and grow in,” says Jessica Caldwell, senior analyst at ., the car-shopping web site.

與此同時，像豐田（Toyota）、現代（Hyundai）等平價品牌也在逐步添加高端功能、娛樂設施、安全配置和動力選擇。這樣一來，留給謳歌（Acura）、英菲尼迪（Infiniti）、林肯（Lincoln）或沃爾沃等中端品牌的空間已經很小了。汽車購買網站的高級分析師傑西卡o卡德維爾指出：“沃爾沃的目標並不是完全不可能達到，但是即便沃爾沃的決策很完美，在如此激烈的競爭環境下，要想復甦和增長還是極具挑戰性的。”

Tesla finds itself in a different, if not equally difficult, dilemma. Worries are growing that there is a large novelty element attached tthe appeal of his $80,000 battery-powered car that will be difficult treplicate as its sales volumes grow. Consumer Reports added fuel tthe worries when it reported that the company has about 2,300 remaining 2014 Model S cars, including showroom display cars, which the company is selling at a discount.

特斯拉則陷入另一個同樣棘手的困境中。首先是有人擔心隨着銷量的增長，這款價值8萬美元的電動跑車所帶來的新奇感將逐漸下降。其次是《消費者報告》（Consumer Reports）稱，特斯拉目前還有大約2300臺沒有售出的2014款Model S（包括展車）正在打折銷售。

One Seeking Alpha blogger figures that more than half of Tesla buyers are what he describes as essentially opportunistic. The Model S became an unexpected addition ttheir fleet of cars, and if it hadn’t been available, they wouldn’t have bought another luxury sedan of any description. “In subsequent years,” he reasons, “there will be lower numbers of purchasers deliberately modifying their normal purchase behaviors in order tget a Model S.”

一位博主在金融網站Seeking Alpha上指出，購買特斯拉的人中有一半以上可以被稱作“機會型購買者”。購買Model S是人們在名下已經擁有的汽車之外的額外消費，如果沒有特斯拉，他們也不會轉而購買任何一款豪車。他解釋道：“在未來幾年，特地調整自己的正常購買行爲來買入Model S的人將變少。”

For Musk treach his outsize targets, he will have taccomplish three things that he hasn’t tried before.

要想實現他的宏大目標，埃隆o馬斯克必須要完成三件他以前未曾嘗試過的事情。

He will have tdevelop a robust distribution system that can offer test drives, provide service, and handle trade-ins. State franchise laws are currently limiting Tesla tthe establishment of showrooms that are capable of displaying cars but dlittle else.

他必須建立一個強有力的經銷網絡，以便提供試駕和售後服務、處理二手車交易。各州目前的特許經營法律使得特斯拉只能設立一些展廳，除了展示轎車以外，這些展廳幾乎做不了其他什麼事情。

He will have tscale up his production capacity at a rate that the autindustry has never seen before. Musk wants tdouble output by the end of 2015 and make five times as many cars by 2020.

他必須以汽車業前所未有的速度提高產能。馬斯克希望特斯拉的產能到2015年末翻一番，到2020年增長5倍。

He will have tsuccessfully launch his third all-new product, the more affordable Gen III, and make it profitably for less than half of what the Model S sells for. New models are demanding. He’s already delayed the introduction of his second car, the Model X, several times, and now it isn’t due until 2015’s third quarter.

他必須成功地推出第三款全新產品，也就是價格更加親民的Gen III，並且要在不到Model S一半的價格上使它盈利。新車型要想成功是很難的，馬斯克已經數次推遲了第二款車型Model X的發佈，現在它可能要等到2015年第三季度才能正式上市。

Musk’s Tesla and Geely’s Volvare twvastly different companies with attached narratives that bear little resemblance teach other. But at this point in time, they find themselves in the same predicament: Living up tdates and numbers that give new meaning tthe term “stretch targets.”

馬斯克的特斯拉和吉利的沃爾沃是兩家非常不同的公司，彼此很少有相像之處。但是這一次，他們陷入了相同的窘境：要在設定的時間裏完成預定的銷量，實現他們的“遠大目標”。