戴姆勒對北汽IPO期望過高

When shares in Daimler’s China joint venture partner begin trading in Hong Kong later this week, the listing’s sponsors are hoping that investors will be reminded of another stock that has soared by virtue of its association with German manufacturing excellence.

戴姆勒(Daimler)在華合資夥伴北汽的股票將於本週晚些時候在香港開始掛牌交易，上市保薦人希望這將讓投資者想起另一隻股票，因爲與德國卓越製造能力的關係，該股得以大幅飆升。

For Beijing-based BAIC Motor, China’s fifth-largest domestic carmaker, comparisons with Brilliance China Automotive are flattering. Since Brilliance Auto was selected as BMW’s China partner in March 2003, its Hong Kong shares have risen more than 800 per cent.

將北汽股份公司(BAIC Motor)與華晨中國汽車(Brilliance China Automotive)相提並論或許有些高看了，北汽股份總部位於北京，是中國第五大自主品牌汽車製造商。華晨汽車集團(Brilliance Auto)自2003年3月被寶馬(BMW)選爲在華合資夥伴以來，其在香港掛牌的股票漲幅已超過800%。

For early investors in Brilliance Auto, the timing was perfect. The company’s manufacturing joint venture with BMW, based in Shenyang, was up and running just in time for China’s emergence as the world’s largest car market. Last year, passenger car sales in the world’s second-largest economy reached 18m units, compared with 15.6m in the US.

對於華晨汽車的早期投資者來說，與寶馬的合作適逢其時。就在中國成爲全球最大汽車市場之際，該公司與寶馬位於瀋陽的合資生產企業及時建成投產。全球第二大經濟體去年乘用車銷量達到1800萬臺，美國爲1560萬臺。

While still trailing Volkswagen unit Audi, which got off to an earlier start in China, BMW has long enjoyed a comfortable lead over Daimler’s Mercedes-Benz division in China’s market for premium sedans. BAIC’s backers say that as Mercedes closes the gap, it too will offer investors an opportunity to cash in on the biggest motor boom in history.

寶馬目前仍落後於大衆(Volkswagen)旗下的奧迪(Audi)，後者在華起步較早，但在中國高檔車市場上，寶馬一直領先於戴姆勒旗下的梅賽德斯-奔馳(Mercedes-Benz)。北汽的出資者們表示，隨着梅賽德斯逐漸追上寶馬，北汽也將讓投資者有機會從汽車史上最大的繁榮中獲利。

Priced at HK$8.90 per share — midway in the HK$7.60-HK$9.80 indicative price range — BAIC will raise US$1.4bn through the offering.

北汽IPO發行價爲每股8.9港幣，位於參考定價區間7.6港幣到9.8港幣的中間位置，預計融資14億美元。

Daimler, which has a 12 per cent stake in the state-owned carmaker, has said it would welcome a cross shareholding arrangement with its China partner in future. BAIC declined to comment ahead of the December 19 IPO.

戴姆勒持有這家國有車企12%的股權，它表示歡迎與其中國合作伙伴在今後的交叉持股安排。北汽拒絕在12月19日正式掛牌前發表評論。

BAIC’s sales pitch, however, differs from Brilliance Auto’s in two respects. While Brilliance only has one partner and limited manufacturing operations of its own, BAIC’s IPO comes with baggage including a larger joint venture with Hyundai and own-brand operations that lost Rmb3.3bn ($537m) last year, according to Bernstein analysts.

不過北汽的賣點與華晨汽車存在兩點不同。伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)分析師指出，華晨只有單一合資夥伴，自主製造業務的規模也不大，而北汽IPO還囊括其與韓國現代(Hyundai)規模更大的合資企業，以及自主品牌業務，後者在去年虧損了33億元人民幣（約5.37億美元）。

BAIC’s partnership with Hyundai is highly profitable, with earnings of Rmb5.4bn in 2013 compared with Rmb757m from the Mercedes venture. Hyundai was the second most popular brand in China last year after VW.

北汽與現代的合作利潤頗豐，2013年盈利54億元人民幣，而與梅賽德斯的合資企業僅實現盈利7.57億元人民幣。現代是中國去年第二大受歡迎品牌，僅次於大衆。

The South Korean carmaker’s joint venture with BAIC has an annual capacity of 900,000 units at its main Beijing plant, and the two partners have plans to build two more factories in Chongqing and Changzhou, a city southwest of the capital in Hebei province.

現代與北汽在北京主要工廠的年產量爲90萬臺，雙方計劃在重慶和滄州再建兩座工廠，滄州位於河北省會保定市的西南方向。

BAIC’s relationship with Hyundai makes it more like other state-owned giants, such as Dongfeng Motor or Guangzhou Automobile Group, that also derive most of their profits from joint ventures with mass market players such as Peugeot Citroen, Nissan, Honda and Toyota. “Originally they were trying to push [BAIC] as a kind of luxury play. Brilliance would be the comparison,” says Janet Lewis, head of Macquarie’s industrials and transport research team in Hong Kong. “But investors are realising that 90 per cent of their profits come from Hyundai. A better comparison is Dongfeng or Guangzhou Auto.”

北汽與現代的關係，使其更像東風汽車(Dongfeng Motor)、廣汽集團(Guangzhou Automobile Group)等其他國有汽車巨頭，這些車企的大部分盈利也來自與標緻雪鐵龍(Peugeot Citroën)、日產(Nissan)、本田(Honda)和豐田(Toyota)等大衆市場品牌的合資企業。麥格理(Macquarie)在香港的工業與交通運輸研究團隊的負責人珍妮特•劉易斯(Janet Lewis)表示：“起初，他們試圖將北汽定位爲豪華車生產商，可與華晨相提並論。然而投資者意識到，北汽90%的利潤來自現代。更合適的類比應該是東風或廣汽。”

BAIC is also coming to market at a time when slowing economic growth finally appears to be affecting previously impervious demand in the car sector. In November, sales of passenger cars rose just 4.7 per cent year-on-year, the slowest rate of expansion in almost two years according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

北汽赴港上市之際，中國經濟增長放緩似乎終於影響到了汽車業需求。根據中國汽車工業協會(CAAM)的數據，今年11月，中國乘用車銷量同比只上升了4.7%，是近兩年來的最低增幅。

Year-on-year sales of domestic brands such as BAIC’s Senova passenger cars, based on SAAB technology acquired five years ago from the now-defunct Swedish car group, did slightly better last month, rising 5.5 per cent according to CAAM data. But analysts remain sceptical whether China’s state-owned domestic brands can win over drivers — or make a profit. “BAIC makes unit losses for every Senova sedan it sells,” Robin Zhu, Bernstein analyst, wrote in a note.

根據中國汽車工業協會的數據，包括北汽紳寶(Senova)在內的自主品牌乘用車的表現確實要更好一點，上月銷量同比增長5.5%。但是，中國國有車企的自主品牌能否贏得車主認可並實現盈利呢？分析師依然持懷疑態度。伯恩斯坦的Robin Zhu在一份報告中寫道：“北汽每賣出一輛紳寶都要虧損。”北汽5年前收購了目前已不復存在的瑞典薩博公司(SAAB)，以後者的技術爲基礎研發並推出了紳寶。

“As Senova volumes ramp up, we fear BAIC’s domestic brand loss could increase, eroding incremental profits at Hyundai and Mercedes.”

“隨着紳寶銷量的增加，我們擔心北汽自主品牌的虧損可能會增加，從而侵蝕現代和梅賽德斯所帶來的增量利潤。”

BAIC’s original selling point remains compelling. Over the first 10 months of this year, Daimler’s China unit reported a 30 per cent rise in Mercedes sales to 226,000 vehicles, putting it on track to sell 300,000 cars next year as outlined in a three-year turnround plan.

北汽起初的推廣賣點依然很有說服力。今年頭十個月，戴姆勒中國業務報告，梅賽德斯銷量增長30%達到22.6萬輛，這使其有望實現三年扭虧計劃中關於明年銷售30萬輛的目標。

BAIC and Daimler have rapidly expanded their Mercedes dealership network to take advantage of growing demand in smaller cities. Their venture is also doing well in larger cities where strict limits on new licence plates to curb congestion and pollution have capped the size of the local market.

北汽和戴姆勒已迅速擴大了梅賽德斯經銷網絡，以利用中小城市汽車需求不斷增長的趨勢。雙方合資業務在較大城市也表現不錯，爲了減少擁堵和污染，這類城市對發放新牌照有嚴格限制，從而限制了當地市場的規模。

Such limits are effectively turning cities such as Beijing and Shanghai into replacement markets, which tend to favour premium brands as existing drivers upgrade their vehicles.

北京、上海等大城市實行的限制措施，實質上使它們成爲“換代型市場”，這往往更有利於高端品牌，因爲現有車主會傾向於換更好的車。