新一代iPhone如何拯救蘋果

Apple is expected to unveil its latest device, the iPhone 6s (or 7), on September 9 in what should be a sigh of relief for investors, who have had a tough ride this week. Despite CEO Tim Cook’s assurance that China’s economic difficulties should not adversely impact the tech giant’s sales, the company’s stock is still trading below its $115 a share level just a few weeks ago, even after the robust market rally on Thursday, and far below its 52-week high of $134.54 a share.

蘋果公司預計將於9月9日發佈最新款手機iPhone 6s（或iPhone 7），在過去一週經歷股價震盪的投資者們理應鬆一口氣。儘管首席執行官蒂姆錠克信誓旦旦地聲稱，中國的經濟困境不會對這家科技巨頭的銷量造成負面影響，但就在幾周前，蘋果股價依然低於115美元，即便是在上週四股市強勁反彈之後依然如此，遠低於52周以來的最高點134.54美元。

At least some of the market punishment seems unique to Apple. Investors are worried about the company for many reasons, including competition from low-cost Chinese smartphone makers and only modest traction for Apple Music and Apple Pay.

至少，來自市場的某些懲罰似乎就是專門衝着蘋果來的。投資者有許多理由爲這家公司擔心，比如中國智能手機廠商的低價競爭，Apple Music和Apple Pay的吸引力十分有限，等等。

Which is why the new iPhone is crucial for Apple to restore investors’ confidence, and there’s a good chance it will for several reasons.

有鑑於此，投資者能否重拾信心，新款iPhone的表現至關重要。基於以下幾個原因，它很可能會不負所望。

The phone will have a 12 megapixel camera, a big increase from previous versions; 4k video recording; faster processing speed; longer battery life, which many users consider to be an extremely important feature, according to multiple studies cited by Tech Insider; animated wallpaper like the Apple Watch and Android phones; the ability to detect when a Wi-Fi network is weak and automatically switch to cellular; and Wi-Fi calling over AT&T, previously limited to T-Mobile.

這款手機擁有遠超前幾代產品的1200萬像素攝像頭、4K視頻錄製功能、更快的處理速度、更長的電池續航時間（據Tech Insider引用的多項調研顯示，用戶認爲這一點極爲重要）、類似Apple Watch和安卓手機的動態牆紙。這款手機能識別較差的Wi-Fi網絡信號，並在這類環境中自動切換至蜂窩網絡。這代手機的Wi-Fi通話功能還支持AT&T的網絡，此前僅限於T-Mobile。

But what’s expected to be the most important new feature of all: force touch, a technology that enables a device to distinguish between light and strong taps by a user and assign different functions to them, as it currently does on the Apple Watch and MacBooks. Applied to the iPhone, this could potentially be the killer feature that solidly differentiates the new iPhone from its predecessors by enhancing ease-of-use and utility.

不過該手機最重要的新特色還是壓感觸控（force touch），這項技術能讓設備識別用戶的輕度和重度觸屏，併爲它們分配不同的功能。它目前已經在Apple Watch和Macbook上實現了。一旦該技術應用於新款iPhone上，就可能成爲一項王牌特色，使其在操作簡便性和功能實用性方面遠遠甩開前幾代產品。

An improvement to the user experience has always been at the heart of Apple’s success with new models and the force touch feature can provide this. Force touch is also new enough to encourage buyers to replace their existing phones, a major driver of sales in in China, one of Apple’s key markets. Force Touch should also help Apple maintain its position in the Asian market, where competitor Huawei is reportedly introducing a similar feature to its smartphones.

增強用戶體驗一直是蘋果成功的不二法門，而新款機型和壓感觸控特色就能做到這一點。壓感觸控這項技術足夠新穎，能讓用戶有動力替換現有機型，在蘋果的重要市場中國，這是提高銷量的一大因素。壓感觸控還能幫助蘋果維持其在亞洲市場的地位，據說中國的競爭對手華爲即將在智能手機上推出類似功能。

Another factor working in Apple’s favor is that while the company may have a hard time outdoing its blockbuster sales for the iPhone 6, new equipment installment plans from wireless carriers might encourage adoption for the new iPhone by consumers. An increasing percentage of AT&T and Verizon customers have been opting for these plans, which don’t tie them down to two-year contracts and allow them to upgrade early.

另一個因素也可能成爲蘋果一大利好。誠然，在iPhone 6大獲成功之後，蘋果公司的業績或許很難再上一層樓。不過，無線網絡運營商提供的新設備分期付款計劃也許會鼓勵用戶購買新iPhone。越來越多的AT&T和威瑞森的顧客都開始選擇這類計劃。這些計劃不會把他們束縛在兩年的合約中，可以讓他們儘早升級手機。

Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi estimates that about 14.9 million U.S. customers will be eligible for upgrades at the end of this year, compared to 5.3 million last fall when the iPhone 6 launched, according to The Wall Street Journal.

斯坦福伯恩斯坦公司分析師託尼薩克納西預計，大約有1490萬美國用戶可以在今年年底前升級手機。而據《華爾街日報》所述，去年秋天iPhone 6發佈時，這一數值是530萬。

Finally, even though Apple continues to trail Samsung in terms of worldwide smartphone sales, which fell in the second quarter of 2015, Apple’s market share rose to 14.6% from 12.2% a year ago, while Samsung’s declined to 21.9% from 26.2%, according to research firm Gartner. In China, too, Apple’s iPhone sales grew by 68% last quarter to 11.9 million units, indicating that the company is making inroads in that market despite its challenges. “It’s a big brand and people really associate that with their status and it’s kind of an aspirational brand so many of the consumers in China expect to own an iPhone at some point of time,” says Gartner research director Anshul Gupta.

最後，儘管蘋果在全球智能手機銷量上仍然不及三星，後者的銷量在2015年第二季度有所下滑。研究公司高德納的數據顯示，蘋果的市場佔有率從去年的12.2%上升到14.6%，而三星從26.2%下降到21.5%。在中國，蘋果的iPhone銷量上季度大漲68%，達到1190萬部。這充分證明，儘管中國市場充滿挑戰，蘋果依然能夠披荊斬棘，高歌猛進。高德納研究總監安舒爾古普塔表示：“蘋果是一個大品牌，人們真的很認同它的地位。這也是一個讓許多人夢寐以求的品牌，很多中國顧客都希望有朝一日能擁有一部iPhone。”

Some words of caution here. Apple’s new product launches are always surrounded by hype and predictions that don’t always come true. It remains to be seen how good the final product will be and, of course, how many people will buy it. In addition, analyst expectations could be inflated, as they were last quarter, setting Apple up to disappoint Wall Street even with a great smartphone.

不過這裏也要提個醒。蘋果的新產品總是被吹得天花亂墜，但這些預言並不是總能實現。最終發佈的產品究竟有多好，以及有多少人願意買單，還需拭目以待。此外，就想上個季度一樣，分析師的預計也可能過高，華爾街最終可能以失望告終。

Nonetheless, given the importance of the new iPhone as investors add pressure on Apple’s stock, it’s a safe bet that the company is going take this particular launch very seriously. Stay tuned for September 9th.

儘管如此，由於投資者不斷對蘋果股價施壓，新款iPhone的重要性不言而喻，我們可以肯定蘋果會嚴肅對待這次特別的發佈會。9月9日的確是令人期待的一天。