除了iPhone 蘋果如何押注未來
With the near-term outlook on its core ranges of iPhones and iPads hazy, Tim Cook, Apple’s chief executive, was unusually open on a call with analysts about longer-range opportunities.
在蘋果(Apple)近期前景模糊不清的情況下，蘋果首席執行官蒂姆•庫克(Tim Cook)在與分析師的電話會議中談及蘋果的更長期機會時異常坦誠。
Top of his mind were Apple’s early forays into cars through CarPlay and the living room with Apple TV, as well as artificial intelligence and Pokémon Go-style “augmented reality”.
在他心中佔據首要地位的是蘋果通過CarPlay初步涉足汽車業務，用Apple TV佔領人們的客廳，還有人工智能和《口袋妖怪Go》(Pokémon Go)式的“增強現實”。
So far this year investors have focused narrowly on the iPhone’s growth — or lack of it. After iPhone sales fell 16 per cent in the quarter to March, Apple’s third-quarter results showed only a moderate improvement, with sales down 15 per cent albeit at the higher end of analysts’ expectations.
今年迄今，投資者的關注都僅僅集中於iPhone的增長——準確地說是集中於該產品未能實現增長的事實。今年第一季度，iPhone銷量同比下滑16%。第二季度的業績顯示iPhone的銷售情況略有好轉，銷量同比下滑15%，但處於分析師預測區間的較高一端。
Yet in spite of the continuing decline in Apple’s most important product, investors cheered Tuesday’s results, sending its stock up 7 per cent to above the symbolic $100 level as Wall Street took a longer-term view of the iPhone-maker’s prospects. Shares reached $103.25 in after-hours trading.
儘管蘋果最重要的產品iPhone的銷量持續下滑，蘋果上週二公佈的業績讓投資者歡欣鼓舞。隨着華爾街以一種更長遠的眼光來看這家iPhone製造商的前景，蘋果的股價上漲7%，突破具有象徵意義的每股100美元大關，在盤後交易中達到了每股103.25美元。
The company’s outlook for the fourth quarter indicated that the decline in iPhone sales would continue, with analysts at Piper Jaffray estimating that Apple’s total revenue guidance of $45.5bn-$47.5bn implies a year-on-year drop in iPhone units of 6 to 10 per cent.
蘋果對第三季度的展望表明，iPhone的銷量還將繼續下滑。據Piper Jaffray的分析師估計，蘋果455億美元到475億美元的收入展望表明iPhone銷量將同比下滑6%到10%。
With expectations lower than usual for the technological advances likely to feature in the next iPhone due out in September, many analysts are forecasting little to no growth for the next few quarters, too.
下一代iPhone定於9月發佈，對這款iPhone可能主打的技術進步，外界的預期異常低下，許多分析師預測iPhone在接下來幾個季度的銷量不會增長，或者增長很少。
It was perhaps unsurprising that Mr Cook wanted to talk about its other product ideas for a change.
因此，庫克想要換換樣，談論蘋果的其他產品想法，可能就並不令人驚訝了。
“Normally they focus on the short term and don’t get into any kind of speculation. This time it was different,” said Carolina Milanesi, an analyst at Creative Strategies, a Silicon Valley consultancy. “Generally it seemed like they were saying, ‘Let’s talk about the future and not dwell too much on what is going on at the moment’.”
“他們通常着眼於短期，不會進行任何形式的猜想。這次情況不同，”硅谷諮詢公司Creative Strategies的分析師卡羅琳娜•米拉內西(Carolina Milanesi)說，“大體上他們就像是在說，‘讓我們談談未來，不要老想着眼下發生的事情’。”
A jump in Apple’s spending on research and development showed that Mr Cook’s bout of futurology was not all talk, however. Even as its revenues declined, Apple increased its R&D investment by 26 per cent to $2.6bn in the quarter. Over the first nine months of the fiscal year, R&D is up 28 per cent. “There is quite a bit that we are doing beyond our current products,” he said.
蘋果研發支出的大幅上升表明，庫克對未來的展望並非全都只是說說而已。雖然收入降低了，蘋果第二季度研發支出同比增加了26%，至26億美元。截至今年6月底的9個月，蘋果的研發支出同比增加了28%。“我們在目前的產品之外所做的事情有不少，”他說。
The most ambitious of Apple’s secret development projects is its plan to build an electric car. While Mr Cook did not comment on Apple’s automotive ambitions, he did hint at new product categories beyond its current portfolio.
在蘋果的祕密開發項目中，最具雄心的是製造電動汽車的計劃。儘管庫克並未對蘋果的汽車產品雄心置評，他的確暗示了目前的產品系列以外的新產品種類。
Walt Piecyk, an analyst at BTIG Research, noted that Apple’s R&D spending as a percentage of revenues hit a record 6 per cent in the quarter, compared with 3.5 per cent for 2015 and 2.6 per cent in 2013. “When your [annual] R&D budget doubles to $10bn in three years, presumably you have some big projects in the hopper,” he said.
BTIG Research的分析師沃爾特•佩西克(Walter Piecyk)指出，蘋果的研發支出與收入的比例在今年第二季度達到了創紀錄的6%，相比之下該比例在2015年爲3.5%，在2013年爲2.6%。“當你的（年度）研發預算在3年內增長了一倍，達到100億美元，很可能你正在醞釀一些大型項目，”他說。
Throughout the hour-long conference call, Mr Cook made several references to Apple’s development efforts in artificial intelligence and machine learning, which are improving products from its Siri virtual assistant to its Photos app.
在長達1小時的電話會議期間，庫克數次提及蘋果在人工智能(AI)和機器學習領域的開發努力，這些努力正在改善從Siri虛擬助手到iPhone上“照片”(Photos)應用的各種產品。
“We have focused our AI efforts on the features that best enhance the customer experience,” he said.
“我們把在AI方面的努力集中在能夠最大程度改善用戶體驗的功能上，”他說。
Mr Cook also pointed to greater ambitions in television. Last September, Apple launched a new set-top box promising to “revolutionise” the TV world through a combination of its App Store and a fancy new remote control.
庫克也提到了在電視方面的更大野心。去年9月，蘋果推出了一款新的電視機頂盒，承諾要通過將其應用商店與時尚的新款遙控器相結合，爲電視世界帶來一場“革命”。
Despite the lofty rhetoric, it is unclear how well the new Apple TV box is selling. It is buried alongside the Apple Watch and iPod in the “other products” line, where revenues fell 16 per cent in the quarter.
儘管措辭十分高調，目前尚不清楚這款新的Apple TV盒銷售情況如何。它與蘋果手錶(Apple Watch)和iPod一道歸入了“其他產品”，該類別第二季度營收同比下滑了16%。
In an interview, Luca Maestri, Apple’s finance chief, declined to say whether sales even grew the quarter.
在一次採訪中，蘋果首席財務官盧卡•馬埃斯特里(Luca Maestri)拒絕透露Apple TV該季度銷量是否增加。
Yet Mr Cook said there was more to come from Apple in the living room. “You shouldn’t look at what’s there today and think we’ve done what we want to do,” he said, identifying the current TV box as merely a “foundation” for bigger things.
不過，庫克表示，蘋果還會推出更多出現在客廳中的產品。他說：“你不應該看着今天存在的東西，就認爲我們已實現了想要做到的一切。”他指出，目前的電視盒只是實現更大目標的“基礎”。
One area of focus is bringing more original and exclusive content to Apple platforms. Earlier on Tuesday, Apple announced a deal with CBS Television Studios securing first-run rights to a new series of the popular Carpool Karaoke show, a spin-off of US chat show The Late Late Show with James Corden, which typically racks up tens of millions of views per episode on YouTube.
一個受到關注的領域是，爲蘋果的平臺帶來更多原創性獨家內容。上週二早些時候，蘋果宣佈了與哥倫比亞廣播公司電視製作公司(CBS Television Studios)的一項協議，敲定了高人氣綜藝《拼車K歌》(Carpool Karaoke)新系列的首播權。《拼車K歌》是美國談話節目《詹姆斯•科登深夜秀》(The Late Late Show with James Corden)的衍生節目，每一集在YouTube網站上的觀看量通常都會達到數千萬次。
Most intriguing of the long-range bets mentioned by Mr Cook, however, was augmented reality — a technology that layers digital images on top of the real world. This effect can be achieved using a headset such as Microsoft’s Hololens or the “mixed reality” goggles promised by secretive Florida-based start-up Magic Leap, or simply by using a smartphone’s camera, as with the wildly popular Pokémon Go mobile game. The Pokémon Go phenomenon shows that “AR can be huge”, Mr Cook said. “We have been and continue to invest a lot in this. We are high on AR for the long run.”
不過，庫克提到的長期賭注中，最有趣的部分是增強現實，這是一種將數字化圖像疊加於真實世界之上的技術。實現這種效果的方法有，使用頭戴式裝置（類似的裝置有微軟(Microsoft)的Hololens，還有佛羅里達州神祕的創業型企業Magic Leap承諾將推出的“混合現實”眼鏡），或是像火爆的手遊《口袋妖怪Go》那樣僅利用智能手機的攝像頭。庫克表示，《口袋妖怪Go》現象表明“增強現實(AR)可能前景廣闊”。“我們一直在這方面投入重金，也會繼續這麼做。從長遠來說，我們非常看好AR。”他說。
While no AR product has yet emerged from Apple’s labs, as the Financial Times reported earlier in the year, Apple has been hiring and acquiring significant expertise in virtual and augmented reality.
雖然正如英國《金融時報》在今年早些時候所報道的，蘋果的實驗室還沒有拿出一款增強現實產品，但是在虛擬現實和增強現實方面，蘋果一直在招兵買馬。
Those efforts could manifest themselves in a future iPhone or Hololens-style headset, while some sort of heads-up display in an Apple car also seems likely.
這些努力的成果或許會體現在未來的iPhone上，或是體現爲一款類似Hololens的頭戴式裝置，還有可能體現爲蘋果汽車中的某種平視顯示(heads-up display)功能。
Mr Cook said AR could produce both great products and a “great commercial opportunity”, as long as other developers’ apps can tap into what Apple develops. Analysts at brokerage Needham & Co estimate Apple could make more than $3bn in revenues over the next two years from Pokémon Go alone.
庫克表示，只要其他開發人員開發的應用能夠對蘋果開發的成果加以利用，增強現實不僅可能催生偉大的產品，還可能創造“巨大的商業機遇”。經紀商Needham & Co的分析師估計，今後兩年僅僅從《口袋妖怪Go》一項產品中，蘋果就可能獲得逾30億美元的營收——蘋果對應用內購買項目收入收取30%的分成。
While the future-gazing seemed to excite investors, Ms Milanesi warned that Apple could only dodge questions about lacklustre sales of its Watch, falling average selling prices for the iPhone and challenges in faster-growing markets such as China and India for so long. “You can waffle through one quarter,” she said, but for shares to stay above the $100 mark, “this is not the kind of call they can have every quarter. It’s just not going to fly.”
儘管這一對未來的展望似乎令投資者激動不已，米拉內西卻警告稱，迴避策略只能幫蘋果到這裏了——對於蘋果手錶的疲軟銷售、iPhone平均售價的下滑、在中國和印度等增長較快市場上面臨的挑戰招致的種種質疑，蘋果一直避而不答。她說，“你可以糊弄過一個季度”，然而要讓股價保持在100美元關口以上，“每個季度都這樣對付他們是不行的。矇混不過去的。”
