年全球遭遇最熱夏天 減排計劃恐成一紙空文

The Earth is so hot this year that a limit for global warming agreed by world leaders at a climate summit in Paris just a few months ago is in danger of being breached.

今年全球是如此之熱，以至於數月之前由幾個國家的領導人簽署的巴黎氣候峯會協議幾乎快要成爲一紙空文了。

In December, almost 200 nations agreed a radical shift away from fossil fuels with a goal of limiting a rise in average global temperatures to well below 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial times while "pursuing efforts" for 1.5C (2.7F).

去年12月份，近200個國家同意大幅削減化石燃料的使用，目標是把全球溫度的上升幅度控制在2攝氏度（3.6華氏度）以內，通過努力使溫度比前工業化時代只高出1.5攝氏度（2.7華氏度）。

But 2016 is on track to be the hottest year on record, also buoyed by a natural El Nino event warming the Pacific, according to the U.N.'s World Meteorological Organization. The first six months were a sweltering 1.3C above pre-industrial times.

但是根據聯合國世界氣象組織的報告顯示，有了太平洋厄爾尼諾現象的火上澆油，2016年卻是有記錄以來最熱的一年。前六個月已經比前工業化時代高出了1.3攝氏度。

"It opens a Pandora's box," said Oliver Geden, of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. "The future debate about temperature targets will be about overshoot."

德國國際與安全事務研究所的奧利弗·戈登說道：“這就像打開了潘多拉的盒子。未來對溫度目標的討論將會集中在溫度超標上。”

Many climate scientists say the Paris targets are likely to be breached in the coming decades, shifting debate onto whether it will be possible to turn down the global thermostat.

很多氣候專家表示，巴黎峯會定下的目標在幾十年內就會淪爲一紙空文，討論的重點將從“是否可行”轉移到“降低全球溫度”。

Developing nations see overshoot as a betrayal of commitments by the rich and a recipe to worsen heatwaves such as in the Middle East this year or a thaw of Greenland's ice sheet that could swamp island states by raising global sea levels.

發展中國家認爲，溫度超標是富有國家對協議條款的背叛，造成了中東地區的今年的熱浪以及格陵蘭島冰蓋的融化，導致島國海平面上升，有被淹沒的風險。

"There is a risk that 'overshoot' is a slippery slope towards lower ambition," said Emmanuel de Guzman, secretary of the Climate Commission of the Philippines, which chairs a group of 43 emerging nations in the Climate Vulnerable Forum (CVF).

領導着43國氣候脆弱性論壇的菲律賓的氣候委員會祕書長伊曼紐爾·德·古茲曼表示：“'溫度超標'對小國家來說有急轉直下的風險。”。

Developing nations say overshoot lets world leaders pay lip service to 1.5C while failing to act on pledges made in Paris for a trillion-dollar shift from coal and other fossil fuels towards renewable energies.

發展中國家宣稱，溫度超標使得各國領導人在巴黎峯會承諾的——把溫度上升控制在1.5攝氏度、花費大量資金把化石燃料換成可再生能源——成了空頭支票。

The 1.5C threshold could be in jeopardy within five years on current trends of world greenhouse gas emissions, led by China and the United States, and 2C within about 25 years, according to U.N. calculations of the amount of carbon that can be emitted into the atmosphere. Brazilian scientist Thelma Krug, who will lead the Geneva meeting of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), said a "wholesale transformation" of economies and society will be required to achieve the Paris targets.

根據聯合國測算的二氧化碳排放量，按照現在溫室氣體的排放趨勢（以中國和美國爲主），1.5攝氏度的目標很有可能在五年內化爲泡影，2攝氏度的目標也將在25年內破產。在日內瓦主持聯合國政府間氣候變化專門委員會會議的巴西科學家席爾瑪·克魯格表示，要想達成巴黎協議定下的目標，經濟和社會必須要有“大規模改革”。

Many IPCC scenarios in recent years discuss ways to extract heat-trapping carbon dioxide from nature. If applied at a wide enough scale, such "negative emissions" could reduce temperatures after an overshoot. But there are many pitfalls.

近幾年，很多IPCC的提案都討論了從大自然中抽取導致溫室效應的氣體——二氧化碳的方法。如果範圍足夠廣的話，這種“反向排放”能夠在溫度超標以後降低溫度。但是這也有很多隱患。

The simplest natural aid - planting trees that absorb carbon dioxide from the air to grow - would probably require too much farmland to be feasible. Industrial technologies for extracting carbon from the air are costly and in their infancy.

最簡單的方法——種樹，能夠吸收空氣中的二氧化碳，但是這種辦法要佔用很多的耕地。從空氣中提取二氧化碳的工業技術尚在起步階段，而且成本很高。