G20財長爲何必須展示領導力

It is expected these days that a meeting of the Group of 20 leading industrialised nations will be a damp squib. This weekend’s gathering in Shanghai was no exception.

如今，人們對20國集團(G20)的會議已經不抱什麼指望了。上週末在上海舉行的會議也不例外。

But when even the International Monetary Fund and the OECD forum put diplomacy aside to warn of flatlining global growth and urge fiscal spending to boost demand, it is surely time for the world’s finance ministers to get their act together.

但是，當就連國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)和經合組織(OECE)都拋開外交辭令，對全球增長停滯發出警告並敦促利用財政支出來提振需求時，眼下就肯定到了全球財長們應該一致採取行動的時候了。

The lesson of the global financial crisis of 2009 is that, when the G20 gets going, it can act in a decisive and co-ordinated way. However, we should not have to wait for the crisis to hit before our financial leaders take the action needed to deal with it.

2009年全球金融危機讓我們知道，當20國集團行動起來時，它可以果斷、協調一致地行事。然而，各國財政領袖不應等到危機來臨時，才採取必要的應對措施。

Things have not yet reached crisis point — and they may not. The US economy is still growing. Falling oil prices are good for consumers. And it is a tribute to Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, that recent market instability has not triggered another sovereign debt scare across southern Europe.

局勢還沒到爆發危機的地步——或許也不會到。美國經濟仍在增長。油價下降對消費者有利。多虧了歐洲央行(ECB)行長馬里奧•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)的努力，近來的市場動盪沒有再次使人們對南部歐洲的主權債務產生恐慌。

Yet economic confidence is clearly draining fast on both sides of the Atlantic. It is hard to be confident that the next move in US interest rates will be up and not down. With investment and trade growth already weak, the chances of a more significant slowdown have certainly grown in recent weeks. Governments should be preparing for the worst, not hoping for the best.

不過，在大西洋兩岸，人們對於經濟的信心顯然在快速喪失。很難對美國下一步將加息、而不是降息抱有信心。由於投資和貿易增長已處於疲軟狀態，近幾周來，經濟增長出現更顯著放緩的可能性無疑增加了。各國政府應當做最壞的打算，而不是抱最大希望。

One problem is focus. Back in 2009, the whole world was alive to the risk of global depression. Not so today. Europe is focused on Brexit and the refugee crisis; America is in pre-election paralysis; meanwhile Asian countries are trying to convince everyone there is no need for panic, as their stock markets are gripped by fear.

一個問題在於關注度。2009年，全世界都關注着全球衰退的風險。如今則並非如此。歐洲關注的是英國退歐和難民危機；美國處於大選前的“癱瘓狀態”；而亞洲國家在其股票市場被恐懼裹挾之時，正努力讓所有人相信，沒有必要恐慌。

Moreover, finance ministers have become used to relying on central banks to keep the world economy growing, even though monetary policy is clearly running out of road. Difficult times demand desperate action — but a wholesale shift to negative interest rates risks making things worse not better.

另外，財長們已習慣於指望央行來維持世界經濟增長——儘管貨幣政策明顯已黔驢技窮。艱難時期需要孤注一擲的大膽行動——但全體轉向負利率，可能導致局勢惡化、而不是好轉。

There is no sign that cautious consumers or businesses are going to be encouraged to spend or invest by a further rate cut or more quantitative easing. But negative rates in Europe are biting into the margins of already cautious banks.

目前沒有跡象表明，進一步降息或者加大量化寬鬆力度，將會推動謹慎的消費者或企業進行消費或投資。但是，歐洲的負利率已經開始侵蝕本已謹慎的銀行業的利潤。

And as Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, warned at the weekend, trying to insulate domestic savers from negative rates is just competitive devaluing by any other name.

正如英國央行(BoE)行長馬克•卡尼(Mark Carney)上週末警告的那樣，努力保護國內儲戶免受負利率的影響，只不過是搞競爭性貶值的另一種說法。

Stagnating growth, fragile investor confidence, fears of competitive devaluation spreading mistrust, isolationist politicians flourishing in the polls — the echoes of the 1930s should be enough to focus minds on making the case for co-operation, open markets and finding new policies to deliver more inclusive economic growth.

增長停滯、投資者信心脆弱、對競爭性貶值的恐懼導致四處瀰漫着不信任情緒、持孤立主義立場的政客民意高漲——這些讓人聯想起上世紀30年代的情形，應當足以讓人們集中精力，去支持合作和開放市場，去尋找能創造更具包容性的經濟增長的新政策。

Which makes it all the more worrying that finance ministers instead spent the weekend falling out with each other: China blaming Japan, America blaming Europe and the Germans blaming everyone but themselves.

然而，在上週末的G20財長會議上，財長們卻把時間花在了吵架上：中國指責日本，美國指責歐洲，德國人指責自己以外的其他所有人。這使得眼下的局面更令人憂心了。

So, here is what the G20 should have agreed last weekend, and needs to get back to as a matter of urgency.

那麼，以下幾點是20國集團本應在上週末的會議上達成一致、眼下需要回過頭來緊急着手處理的事情。

First, it needs to demonstrate a collective commitment to collaboration, not competition, on exchange rates and monetary policy. That means agreed rules of the game on negative rates.

首先，20國集團需要展示出在匯率和貨幣政策上進行合作（而不是競爭）的共同決心。這意味着，要就實施負利率的“遊戲規則”達成一致。

China does need to adjust its exchange rate. This must be done as part of a concerted global effort to boost growth, not through unilateral action which feeds further instability and suspicion.

中國確實需要調整其匯率。這必須作爲全球刺激增長共同努力的一部分來完成，而不是單方面採取行動，後一種做法只會引發更多的動盪和懷疑。

Second, and related to this, the G20 needs to listen to the OECD and IMF on fiscal activism. Countries with room for manoeuvre should boost growth through infrastructure spending. That includes the US, Germany and, yes, Britain too. Medium-term fiscal consolidation is vital. But a slide in growth will make things worse. And the cost of funding these investments is very low.

其次，與此相關的是，20國集團需要聽取經合組織和IMF有關採取積極財政政策的意見。尚有政策操作空間的國家應當通過基建支出刺激增長。這類國家包括美國、德國，是的，也包括英國。中期財政整固是至關重要的。但增長下滑將使局勢更趨惡化。而且，這些投資的資金成本是非常低廉的。

The G20 came into being 17 years ago, with the world’s main emerging markets as members, because the G7 was seen as illegitimate and ineffective. It now has to prove that its existence makes co-ordination easier and not harder.

17年前，由於七國集團(G7)被視爲不合理、不起作用，世界上主要的新興市場國家也被納入進來，由此誕生了20國集團。如今， 20國集團必須證明自己的存在使國際協調合作變得更容易，而不是更困難了。

It came of age back in 2009 when Gordon Brown, then UK prime minister, spurred the world’s leading economies into action to prevent a depression. It is now time for today’s statesmen and women to show that they too know how to lead. Before it is too late.

2009年標誌着20國集團的成熟。那一年，時任英國首相戈登•布朗(Gordon Brown)敦促世界主要經濟體行動起來，共同阻止經濟衰退。現在，到了如今的政治家們證明他們也知道該如何領導的時候了。時間寶貴，莫延誤時機。