外國經濟學家說：中文是最實用的外語

一個大一新生的煩惱：

I’m gearing up for my freshman year of college, and I’m trying to decide which language to study. I’d like to pick the language that will be most practical. If you had to pick just one, which would you recommend?
-Freshman
親愛的艾米莉，
我正在爲我的大一生活做準備，並且我在試着選定要學習的語言。我想選一門最實用的語言。如果你要選一門語言來學習的話，你會推薦哪種語言呢？

經濟學家Emily Oster的回答：

As someone who took six years of Latin, I am not sure I am the best source for information on what language will be practical, but I’ll give it a try.
作爲一個學習了6年拉丁語的人，我不確定自己是否是提供實用語言信息的最佳人選，不過我會試試看。

First, let me say I don’t think you are thinking about this quite the right way. You asked me about what language would be most practical. This suggests you’re thinking about only one side of the choice: the benefit side. Making the optimal choice requires thinking about both benefits and costs. In this case, I’d argue there may be very different costs to acquiring proficiency in different languages. It is a lot harder for most English-speakers to learn Japanese than to learn Spanish.
首先，我得說我認爲你考慮問題的方式不對。你問我什麼語言最實用，這說明你只考慮了這項選擇的一個方面：有益的一面。做出最佳選擇需要考慮收益和成本兩個方面。在這種情況下，我得說，要熟練掌握不同的語言可能會有不同的代價。對多數講英語的人而言，學日語就比學西班牙語要困難地多。

But let’s start with the benefits. The benefits of a new language arise from the new people you can interact with in your new language. If maximizing this was your only goal, Mandarin would be the best choice: This is the native language for 14% of the world’s population, and most of those people do not speak English, so it’s win-win.
不過咱們先說說益處吧。學一門新語言的好處取決於你在學習新語言的過程中可以與之互動的新朋友。如果使這個優勢最大化是你唯一的目標，那麼普通話會是最佳的選擇：這是佔世界人口14%的人民的母語，而且他們多數人不講英語，所以這是一種雙贏。
Another language is Spanish, the native language of 5.8% of the world’s population, followed by English, Hindi, and Arabic.
另一種語言就是西班牙語，這是佔世界人口5.8%的人民的母語，然後是英語、印地語和阿拉伯語

You might also consider how influential a given language is likely to be in the future, based on an area’s anticipated economic growth. Mandarin retains an advantage here, given that China is important economically. Spanish has the advantage of being spoken in a larger number of countries, although the total GDP of these countries is less than half that of China alone (roughly $11 trillion in US dollars). On the benefit side, I think we’re down to Mandarin and Spanish.
基於一個地區預期的經濟增長，你可能也會考慮特定的語言可能會對你的未來產生多大的影響。鑑於中國在經濟上的重要性，在這一方面，普通話依然有優勢。西班牙語的優勢是更多國家的人講這門語言，雖然這些國家的國內生產總值合起來還不到中國國內生產總值的一半（約11萬億美元）。在優勢這一方面，我認爲我們只剩下普通話和西班牙語可以選擇了。

On the cost side, Mandarin is a difficult language to learn, particularly as an adult. Learning to say “Ni Hao” and “xiexie” will endear you to a few locals in Shanghai, but it’s unlikely you’ll get far enough in Mandarin to find your knowledge of it truly useful. By contrast, Spanish is considerably easier for native English speakers, and it’s a lot more likely you’ll reach some level of mastery. In the end, I’d say unless you are a truly gifted linguist, Spanish is the most practical choice.
而在成本這一方面，普通話很難學，特別是對成年人而言。學習說“你好”和“謝謝”可以讓上海的一些本地人喜歡你，但是，你對普通話的掌握未必能達到對你真正有用的程度。相比之下，西班牙語對母語是英語的人來說要容易的多，而且你對這門語言的掌握程度更有可能達到精通的水準。最後，我得說，除非你真的是一個語言天才，否則西班牙語會是最實用的選擇。

Of course, if you want something which is really useful, you might consider a new computer language, instead. I hear good things about JavaScript.
當然，如果你想學習真正有用的東西，你可以考慮學一門新的計算機語言。我聽說JavaScript（一種程序語言）還不錯。