彭斯的中國政策演講沒有自圓其說

美國時間10月4日，美國副總統彭斯在哈德遜研究所就美國對華政策發表了長達一個小時的演講。美國方面在一週前就已經爲此次演講做了預告，聲稱演講將爲特朗普政府的對華政策定調。中國方面擔心演講會給已經高度敏感的中美關係增加負面情緒，甚至讓國際社會認爲中美之間的“新冷戰”已經不可避免。從彭斯演講的內容來看，這次演講更多出於美國國內政治目的，有意將中國作爲特朗普民意支持下降的替罪羊。
On October 4, United States Vice President Mike Pence delivered a one-hour speech on the US' China policy at the Hudson Institute. The US government announced that the speech would be given a week ago, claiming that it would set the tone of the Trump administration's China policy. The Chinese government is concerned that the speech merely adds more negative sentiment to the already sensitive relationship between China and the US and that it suggests to the international community that a new Cold War between the two countries is inevitable. Judging from its content, Pence's speech served more of a domestic political purpose, as it sought to use China as a scapegoat for US President Donald Trump's falling public approval.

演講彙集了近年來美國國內對於中國的不滿、猜疑和誤解，給中美關係留下了更多的困惑。如何理解這些困惑很可能將決定着中美關係的未來。
The speech touched on US feelings of dissatisfaction, suspicion, and misunderstanding toward China in recent years, creating yet more confusion around China-US relations.

第一個困惑是演講沒有說明特朗普政府對華政策的根本邏輯。演講以“特朗普對華政策”爲題，但是演講的絕大部分內容與中美之間的互動無關，而是關於所謂的中國干涉美國內政問題。相對於兩國在經貿和軍事領域的諸多問題，“中國干涉美國內政問題”只是一個新近出現的、仍具爭議的話題，在中美關係中所佔的分量很小。這種問題如同中美兩國之間出現的若干突發性危機一樣，不足以決定中美關係的基本價值取向。演講沒有解決美國對華政策的根本性問題，即美國如何與中國建立一個可持續、對美國和世界和平有利的關係。彭斯在演講中稱，希望與中國建立建設性關係。如果說這種關係是以美國通過貿易、外交、軍事等領域施壓來“改造”中國爲基本手段，那麼這顯然並不是建設性關係。這種做法只會加劇兩國之間的對立和敵意，最終演變爲不可逆轉的螺旋。
The speech did not explain the logic behind the Trump administration's China policy. The speech was on Trump's policy toward China, but most of its content was unrelated to the interactions between the two countries. Rather, it was about China's so-called interference in US internal affairs. China's interference in US internal affairs is a new and still controversial topic, and it plays only a small part in China-US relations. Like the sudden crisis that has arisen between the two nations, this issue does not characterize their speech failed to address the fundamental problem with the US' China policy, which is how the US can establish a relationship with China that is sustainable as well as favorable to the US and the rest of the world. Pence did say in his speech that he hopes to establish a constructive relationship with China. It will obviously not be constructive, though, if it consists of the US attempting to reform China through trade, diplomacy, and military pressure. Such an approach will only exacerbate the confrontation and hostility between the two countries and create an irreversible downward spiral.

第二個困惑是演講並沒有證實中國如何幹預美國內政。彭斯在演講中提出了很多所謂中國干涉美國內政的證據，例如中國國際廣播電臺在美國30多個電臺播放對中國友好的節目；在美中國留學生建有聯合會；中國試圖分化美國商界、地方政府與聯邦政府在中美經貿摩擦上的團結等等。但是，彭斯所列舉事例帶有明顯的政治偏見。運用商業渠道在他國投放有利於本國國家形象的宣傳片是一種國際慣例，屬於軟實力宣傳的範疇，美國同樣試圖用“美國之音”等媒體對華宣傳。在美中國留學生的結社自由應當得到美國法律的保護和美國政府的接受。而美國商界、地方政府與中國各級政府的互動，多數並非是由中方主動發起，而源於美國地方政府對特朗普極端貿易政策的憂慮。美國的聯邦制和選舉制度給了地方政府和各種利益集團充分表達其訴求的權利，這種權利是美國之所以成爲美國的基石。
The speech also did not specify how China has interfered in US internal affairs. Pence cited a lot of supposed evidence of China's interference, for example China Radio International broadcasting Beijing-friendly programming on over 30 US radio stations, the presence of Chinese Students and Scholars Associations set up by Chinese students in the US, and attempts by China to exploit divisions between businesses and federal- and local-level governments on issues like trade to advance its political influence. But the examples cited by Pence reflect obvious political bias. The use of commercial channels to promote one's own country is an international normal practice. The US, for example, uses voice of America and other forms of media to conduct propaganda in China. The right of Chinese students to freedom of association in the US should be protected by US law and accepted by the US government. And many of the interactions between US businesses and local government and the Chinese government at various levels are not initiated by people in China but are the result of the concerns of local governments in the US over Trump's extreme trade policies. Ultimately, the US federal and electoral system give local governments and various interest groups the right to fully express their desires. This right is a cornerstone of US political life.

第三個困惑是演講讓特朗普政府的對華表述更加令人費解。彭斯的演講延續了特朗普總統在對華表述上的一貫矛盾：特朗普既希望與中國領導人建立良好友誼，又毫無忌憚地批駁中國的對外戰略，將中國國內經濟和社會政策描繪爲可怕的陰謀。特朗普既不願意看到中國經濟遭殃，又把讓中國股市大幅下跌、中國國內投資者損失慘重作爲其貿易政策有效的證據。這些相互矛盾的表述損害了美國政府在中國的信譽，使中國難以確信與美國的談判能夠得到長期有效的結果。
The speech obfuscated the Trump administration's stance on China. Pence's speech perpetuated Trump's consistently contradictory approach to dealings with China: on the one hand, he wants to build a close friendship with China's leader， but, on the other, he has no qualms about criticizing China's foreign policies and portraying China's domestic economic and social policies as appalling conspiracies. Trump ignores the economic downturn in China but considers the sharp fall in Chinese stock markets and the heavy losses suffered by Chinese investors as evidence of the effectiveness of his trade policy. His contradictory statements have undermined the credibility of the US government in China, making it difficult to believe that negotiations with the US can yield long-term results.

第四個困惑是演講提出了一個雙重的公平、對等和尊重標準。彭斯認爲，中美關係重新回到以合作爲主的渠道需要雙方以公平、對等和尊重重建信任。但是，從彭斯的表述來看，這種所謂的公平、對等和尊重標準是以中國在各方面的無條件讓步爲前提。美國可以隨意挑戰中國在南海的海洋權益，卻不準中國擁有自衛能力；美國可以增加對臺灣的軍事援助，干涉中國內政問題，卻不允許中國在美國投放商業廣告宣傳本國形象；美國可以在印太地區推出大規模基建機會，卻不允許中國繼續推動其“一帶一路”倡議。這種雙重標準源於美國的優越感和“美國例外論”，這與公平、對等和尊重的精神是矛盾的。彭斯希望中國把美國視爲“他同我們也一樣”，但他所提出的要求卻表明美國希望中國把美國稱爲“聖上”。
Pence suggested that for China-US relations to return to a state of cooperation, the two sides' relationship must be grounded in fairness, reciprocity, and respect. But it seems from what Pence said this means China making unconditional concessions. The US is allowed to challenge China's maritime rights and interests in the South China Sea, but China is not allowed to have self-defense capabilities. The US is allowed to step-up its military assistance to Taiwan and thus interfere in China's internal affairs, but China is not allowed to run commercial advertisements in the US to promote itself. The US is allowed to launch large-scale infrastructure projects in the Indo-Pacific, but China is not allowed to continue promoting its Belt and Road Initiative. Such double standards stem from US feelings of superiority and the ideology of American exceptionalism, which are in stark contradiction to the spirit of fairness, reciprocity, and fairness touted by its leaders. Pence said that he hopes China will treat the US as an equal, but his demands suggest that the US wants China to treat it as an emperor.

第五個困惑是演講沒有給出美國對華政策的清晰前景。彭斯稱美國向中國伸出了手，希望與中國共同迎接未來。但是，彭斯的演講並沒有解決中美競爭的一些關鍵性問題。例如，中美關係的下限在哪裏？中美之間是否需要遵守一些共同規則？中美是否應當共同避免陷入某種形式的“新冷戰”？中美之間如何在當前形勢下相向而行？美國希望通過怎樣的機制來解決中美關係中的新問題？等等。
The speech did not present a clear vision of the US's policy toward China. Pence said that America is reaching out its hand to China and that it hopes China will reach back in the future. But his speech did not address the key issue of China-US competition. For example, what is the lower limit of China-US relations? Should the US and China adhere to a set of common rules? Should China and the US try to avoid falling into some form of new Cold War? How can China and the US move in the same direction? What sort of mechanism does the US hope to use to solve new problems in China-US relations?

這些困惑表明彭斯講話並沒有給特朗普對華政策畫下句點，沒有標誌着美國對華新共識的形成，沒有預示着中美新冷戰必然發生。如何看待、處理這些困惑給中美關係的未來帶來了機遇和挑戰。
These omissions show that Pence's speech did not help to clarify Trump's China policy; it did not mark the creation of a new US consensus on China and it did not indicate that a new Cold War between the US and China is inevitable. Dealing with these areas of confusion presents both opportunities and challenges for future China-US relations.

在積極方面，這些困惑意味着美國對華政策的良好期望並沒有完全消失。彭斯所提出的問題不少是中美關係中的長期性問題，另一些則是由於政治、意識形態因素帶來的新誤解。中美雙方仍然有可能通過澄清誤解、在利益衝突問題上展開務實對話來解決大部分問題，並且將一些難以短期內解決的問題留給將來。這種將問題分解、逐一溝通、分階段解決的方式是1972年以來兩國形成的較爲成熟的模式。在解決問題的過程中，雙方也有機會通過溝通尋找共同利益和創造新的合作機遇。中國官方對於彭斯講話的迴應已表明，中國沒有放棄與美國建立建設性關係，不希望讓當前中美關係的緊張局面放任自流。
On the upside, this means that the US has not abandoned its positive expectations for its China policy. Many of the issues raised by Pence are long-standing issues in China-US relations. Some others are misunderstandings due to political and ideological factors. It is still possible for China and the US to resolve most of these problems by dispelling misunderstandings and engaging in pragmatic dialogue on conflicts of interest, while leaving some issues that are difficult to resolve in the short term for future discussions. This way of breaking down problems, discussing them one-by-one, and solving them in stages is a relatively mature model used by the two countries since 1972. In the process of communicating to solve such issues, both parties can also discover common interests and create new opportunities for cooperation. China's official response to Pence's speech has shown that China has not abandoned its constructive relationship with the US and does not want to let the current tensions in China-US relations get out of hand.

在消極方面，這些困惑意味着美國方面仍然有可能採取更單邊的措施來表明美國對華政策的有效性。由於美國缺乏通過中美良性互動的方式解決中美關係諸多問題的意願，美國更可能採取一些突發性、可以持續升級的措施來逼迫中國讓步。這種政策不僅將像“中美貿易摩擦”一樣給兩國關係帶來超預期的消極影響，也可能給世界和平及美國經濟帶來反作用。除了少部分對華有深刻偏見的人士，沒有人希望中美完全決裂和走向全面對抗。這種結果也將標誌着特朗普“良性大國競爭”世界觀的失敗。
On the downside, these areas of confusion mean that the US is likely to take more unilateral measures to demonstrate the effectiveness of its China policy. Because the US lacks the will to solve many issues in China-US relations through positive engagement with China, it is more likely to adopt sudden and constantly escalating measures to force China into making concessions. This approach will not only have unexpected negative consequences for bilateral relations, as is the case with the current trade tensions, but may also have counter-productive outcomes for world peace and the US economy. Except for a small minority of people who hold deep prejudices against China, nobody wishes to see a complete breakdown in China-US relations and a move toward full-on confrontation. Such an outcome would mean the failure of Trump's worldview of “great power competition.”