比爾·蓋茨：距離疫情結束還早 美國檢測不足

疫情已過半？比爾·蓋茨表示，我倒很想這麼說，但可惜不能！在最近的一次訪談中，蓋茨預測，距離疫情結束還有很長一段時間，最快需要18個月才能研發出疫苗，人們只能先回到“半正常”生活方式。

Billionaire Bill Gates continues to be one of the most outspoken public figures on the subject of coronavirus, which the Microsoft co-founder has dubbed “the first modern pandemic.”

億萬富翁比爾·蓋茨依然是在新冠病毒話題上最直言不諱的公衆人物之一，這位微軟聯合創始人將這次疫情稱爲“現代首次大流行病”。

Gates has also made it clear that he sees the pandemic as a “nightmare” and an era-defining event whose effects will linger for years. “It’s going to be awhile before things go back to normal,” Gates said in a new interview on Friday with NBC’s Savannah Guthrie on the “TODAY” show.

蓋茨還明確表示，他認爲這場大流行病是一個“噩夢”和這一時代的標誌性事件，其後果會延續數年。上週五蓋茨在《今日》秀的新訪談中對NBC電視臺主持人薩瓦娜·格斯里說：“還要等上一段時間生活才能回到正軌。”

"I wish I could say that we’re halfway through. But I don’t think so,” Gates added.

蓋茨補充道：“我真希望我能說疫情進程已經過半。但我不這麼認爲。”

That’s because the billionaire believes the United States is still several months, if not years, away from large-scale production of a coronavirus vaccine. Still, he is hopeful that a vaccine will arrive sooner, rather than later.

這是因爲蓋茨認爲美國還需要數個月（如果不是數年的話）才能大規模生產新冠疫苗。儘管如此，他仍對疫苗能儘快研發出來抱有很大希望。

"Usually a vaccine takes over five years because you have many steps,” Gates said in the interview on Friday, noting that vaccine development starts with animal testing before moving on to human testing at larger and larger scales.

蓋茨在上週五的訪談中說：“通常一種疫苗研發出來需要五年以上的時間，因爲需要很多步驟。”他指出疫苗研發先要經過動物試驗，然後才能進行人體試驗，並逐漸擴大範圍。

However, Gates added that he’s seen evidence to suggest that a coronavirus vaccine could be available within the government’s stated likely timeline of 18 to 24 months. “The best scientists [are] working hard on this,” Gates told Guthrie. “In fact, in the last few weeks I’ve seen signs that we may get to the optimistic side of that time projection” for a vaccine.

不過，蓋茨補充道，他見過的案例顯示，新冠疫苗有可能在政府所說的18到24個月的時間內研發出來。蓋茨告訴格斯里說：“最厲害的科學家們正在努力研發疫苗。事實上，過去幾周我看到的跡象表明，我們有可能在18個月內研發出來”。

That estimate echoed what Gates wrote in a post on his personal GatesNotes blog on Thursday. Gates wrote in the post that vaccine timelines could range anywhere from just nine months to two years, but he believes an 18-month wait is more likely, which would mean a vaccine could be widely available sometime in the middle of 2021.

這一預測與蓋茨上週四在個人博客“蓋茨筆記”中發的帖子內容是一致的。蓋茨在帖子中寫道，研發疫苗的時間短則9個月，長則兩年，但他認爲更可能是18個月，這意味着新冠疫苗將在2021年年中投入大規模生產。

So far, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation has committed $250 million in funding to help the world develop an effective coronavirus vaccine, which he wrote in his blog post is “the only way to return the world to where it was before COVID-19 showed up.”

迄今爲止，比爾及梅琳達·蓋茨基金會已經投資2.5億美元（約合人民幣17.7億元）用於幫助世界研發有效的新冠疫苗。他在博客中寫道，這是“唯一能讓世界回到新冠病毒出現之前的方法”。

Gates also remains critical of the US government’s response to the coronavirus pandemic. In March, Gates said the US “did not act fast enough to have an ability to avoid the [coronavirus] shutdown,” and he called President Trump’s decision to defund the World Health Organization (WHO) “as dangerous as it sounds.”

對於美國政府對新冠疫情的應對，蓋茨仍然持批評態度。三月份，蓋茨曾說過，美國“對疫情反應不夠快，錯失了避免封鎖的機會。”他還指出，特朗普總統決定從世界衛生組織撤資“和聽起來一樣危險”。

In the interview with “Today”, Gates called out the US government for not ramping up testing for COVID-19 as effectively as other countries.

在《今日》秀的訪談中，蓋茨批評美國政府沒有像其他國家一樣有效加強對新冠肺炎的檢測。

ramp up: 增加；使增加

"Many countries decided that at the national level, they would orchestrate the testing” for COVID-19, he said. “That hasn’t happened in the United States. It might not happen. But, you know, the access to tests is just, you know, chaotic.”

他說：“許多國家決定從國家層面統籌安排新冠肺炎檢測。但美國不是如此，也可能不會發生。但是，你知道，現在獲得檢測的渠道很混亂。”

Gates laid out what he believes the US government needs to do to step up testing measures in his blog post on Thursday. These steps include developing COVID-19 tests that can return results in less than a day, as well as providing tests to all health care workers and finding a way for people to take tests in their own homes.

蓋茨上週四在博客帖子中寫道，他認爲美國政府需要加強檢測措施。這些措施包括研究出可以在一天時間內得出結果的檢測方法，以及向所有醫療工作者提供檢測服務，並設法讓人們可以在家裏進行檢測。

"Testing becomes extremely important as a country considers opening up,” Gates wrote, noting that most developed countries will be able to start considering reopening daily life — returning to a “semi-normal” way of life that still includes social-distancing practices — within the next two months.

蓋茨寫道：“隨着國家考慮放鬆封鎖，檢測變得極爲重要。”他指出大多數發達國家將能在未來兩個月內開始考慮重新開啓日常生活——回到一種需要社交隔離的“半正常”生活方式。