關於2020年,這些預測統統沒有實現(上)大綱

n feet will become just one big toe.

人類的腳會只有一個大腳趾

So, what's going to happen to our feet—or, more specifically, our toes—in 2020? In a lecture at the Royal College of Surgeons of England in 1911, a surgeon by the name of Richard Clement Lucas made a curious prediction: that the "useless outer toes" will become used less and less, so that "man might become a one-toed race."

那麼，到2020年，我們的腳，或者更具體地說，我們的腳趾會發生什麼變化呢？1911年，在英國皇家外科學院的一次演講中，一位名叫理查德·克萊門特·盧卡斯的外科醫生做了一個奇怪的預測：“無用且靠外的腳趾”使用得將越來越少，因此“人類可能會變成只有一個腳趾的物種”。

'll have ape chauffeurs.

猿猴司機上崗

In 1994, the RAND Corporation, a global think tank that's contributed to the space program and the development of the internet, said they expected us to have animal employees by the year 2020.

1994年，致力於空間項目和網絡發展的全球智庫蘭德公司稱，到2020年，人類會僱傭動物員工。

"The RAND panel mentioned that by the year 2020 it may be possible to breed intelligent species of animals, such as apes, that will be capable of performing manual labor," Glenn T. Seaborg wrote of the corporation's prediction in his book Scientist Speaks Out.

“蘭德委員會提到，到2020年，可能會培育出能夠從事體力勞動的類人猿等智能物種”，格倫·T·西博格在他的《科學家暢談》一書中提到了該公司的這一預測。

"During the 21st century, those houses that don't have a robot in the broom closet could have a live-in ape to do the cleaning and gardening chores. Also, the use of well-trained apes as family chauffeurs might decrease the number of automobile accidents." Yikes, who's gonna tell them?

“在21世紀，那些沒有機器人打掃的房子可能會有一隻住家的類人猿來做清潔和園藝雜務。此外，使用訓練有素的類人猿作爲家庭司機可能會減少車禍的數量。”哎呀，誰來告訴他們（現在的情況）呢？

'll live in flying houses.

會飛的房子

Inventor, science writer, and futurist Arthur C. Clarke—who co-wrote the screenplay for 2001: A Space Odyssey—believed that the boring houses of 1966 would be radically different by the time we reached the 21st century. Evidently, the houses of the future would have nothing keeping them on the ground and they would be able to move to anywhere on earth on a whim.

參與了《2001太空漫遊》劇本撰寫的發明家、科學作家、未來學家阿瑟·C·克拉克認爲，當人類進入21世紀時，1966年那些乏味的房子將會完全不同。很明顯，未來的房子不會被固定在地面上，它們可以隨心所欲地移動到地球各地。

Oh, and it wouldn't just be one home that would be able to relocate without the owner even needing to get out of bed and put on pants. "Whole communities may migrate south in the winter, or move to new lands whenever they feel the need for a change of scenery," Clarke promised. Up 2, anyone?

哦，搬家的時候主人不需要起牀和穿褲子，但遠不止這樣。“整個社區可能會在冬天向南遷移，或者在居民想換換景觀時搬到新的地方”，克拉克承諾說。像不像《飛屋環遊記》的續集，朋友們？

our houses will be cleaned by hoses.

水管沖洗房間

The New York Times' longtime science editor Waldemar Kaempffert, who worked for the paper from the 1920s through the 1950s, had lots of opinions about how different the world would be by the 21st century. In a 1950 Popular Mechanics article, titled "Miracles You'll See in the Next 50 Years," he predicted that by the 21st century, all you'll have to do to get your house clean is "simply turn the hose on everything."

《紐約時報》長期科學編輯瓦爾德瑪·坎普費特從20世紀20年代到50年代一直在該報工作，他對21世紀的世界會有多大的不同有很多看法。在1950年發表在《大衆機械》上的《未來50年你將看到的奇蹟》一文中，他預測到21世紀，想要打掃房子，你只需要“打開所有的水龍頭”。

That's because Kaempffert imagined furniture would be made of synthetic fabric or waterproof plastic. "After the water has run down a drain in the middle of the floor (later concealed by a rug of synthetic fiber)," all you'd have to do is "turn on a blast of hot air" to dry everything.

這是因爲坎普費特想象中的傢俱是由合成纖維或防水塑料製成的。“當水從地板中間的排水管裏流出後（隨後會被合成纖維地毯遮蓋住）”，你所要做的就是“打開暖風”把室內吹乾。

'll eat candy made of underwear.

吃內衣做的糖果

In the same Popular Mechanics article, Kaempffert predicted that all food would be delivered to our homes in the form of frozen bricks by the 21st century. "Cooking as an art is only a memory in the minds of old people," he wrote. "A few die-hards still broil a chicken or roast a leg of lamb, but the experts have developed ways of deep-freezing partially baked cuts of meat." And, thanks to advances in culinary technology, Kaempffert predicted it would even be possible to take ordinary objects like old table linens and "rayon underwear" and bring them to "chemical factories to be converted into candy." No thanks!

在同一篇《大衆機械》的文章中，坎普費特預測，到21世紀，所有的食物都將以凍冰塊的形式送到我們的家中。他寫道：“烹飪作爲一門藝術，只是老年人的一種記憶。一些頑固分子仍在烤雞或烤羊腿，但專家們已經發明瞭將部分烤制的肉塊深度冷凍的方法。”坎普費特預測，由於烹飪技術的進步，人們甚至可以把舊桌布和“人造絲內衣”等普通物品帶到“化工廠進行加工，改造成糖果”。還是算了吧！

'll have personal helicopters.

私人直升機普及

Forget jetpacks and flying cars. Popular Mechanics was pretty sure back in 1951 that every family in 21st century would have at least one helicopter in their garage.

忘掉噴氣揹包和飛車吧。《大衆機械》在1951年非常確定21世紀每個家庭的車庫裏至少會有一架直升飛機。

"This simple, practical, foolproof personal helicopter coupe is big enough to carry two people and small enough to land on your lawn," they explained. "It has no carburetor to ice up, no ignition system to fall apart or misfire: instead, quiet, efficient ramjets keep the rotors moving, burning any kind of fuel from dime-a-gallon stove oil or kerosene up to aviation gasoline." Yes, but then, we'd imagine, your teenage son would ask to borrow the chopper, and you'd wake up the next day to discover your helicopter stuck in a tree. It's always something!

他們解釋說：“這款簡單、實用、使用簡便的私人直升機轎跑車足夠大，可以搭載兩個人，也足夠小，可以停在自家草坪上。它的化油器不會結冰，沒有會散架或打不着火的點火系統：相反，安靜、高效的衝壓發動機使旋翼保持轉動，燃燒從每加侖10美分的爐用油或煤油到航空汽油的任何燃料。”是的，但是，我們可以想象，你十幾歲的兒子會向你借直升機，而你第二天醒來發現你的直升機卡在樹上了。想想吧！

7.C, X, and Q will not be part of the alphabet.

C、X和Q從字母表刪除

When you're curious about the future of language, you probably should ask someone other than an engineer about it. And yet, that's what Ladies' Home Journal did in 1900, asking John Elfreth Watkins Jr., the curator of mechanical technology at the Smithsonian Institution, for his educated guesses about the 21st century.

當你對語言的未來感到好奇時，你可能應該問問別人，而不是工程師。然而，《女性家庭雜誌》在1900年就這麼做了。雜誌邀請了史密森尼學會機械技術策展人小約翰·埃爾弗里斯·沃特金斯，請他對21世紀做出有根據的猜測。

The man of science had no love for what he considered extraneous letters, and he boldly predicted that by the 2000s, "there will be no C, X, or Q in our everyday alphabet. They will be abandoned because unnecessary." Instead, Watkins wrote, we'd be spelling mostly by sound and would only communicate with "condensed words expressing condensed ideas." So, in 2020, we may say to our friends, "Me happy good, hi!"

這位科學家對他所認爲的外來字母毫無興趣，他大膽地預測，到本世紀頭十年，“我們日常使用的字母表中將不再有C、X或Q。它們會因爲沒有必要而被拋棄。”相反，沃特金斯寫道，我們將主要通過聲音拼寫，只會用“表達扼要思想的縮合詞彙”交流。所以，在2020年，我們可能會對朋友說，“我高興，好，嗨！”

will have both telepathy and teleportation.

心靈感應和瞬間移動

Michael J. O'Farrell, founder of The Mobile Institute, has been an expert in the technology industry since 1985. But even the experts can make mistakes. In the 2014 book Shift 2020, O'Farrell predicted that 2020 would be the dawn of the "nanomobility era."

移動研究所的創始人邁克爾·J·奧法雷爾自1985年以來一直是科技行業的專家。但即使是專家也會犯錯。在2014年出版的《2020年的轉變》一書中，奧法雷爾預測，2020年將是“納米移動時代”的黎明。

"In the pending nanomobility era, I predict telepathy and teleportation will become possible by the year 2020—with both commonplace by 2040," he said. Well, we'll believe it when we see it.

他說：“在即將到來的納米移動時代，我預計到2020年，心靈感應和瞬間移動將成爲可能，到2040年，這兩種技術都將普及。”好吧，夢想成真時我們就會相信。

roads will become tubes.

氣動管道送你出行

If you're sick of asphalt roads and all the potholes that come with them, then you'll wish Popular Mechanics was right about this prediction for the 21st century. In a 1957 article, the magazine predicted that every road and street in America will be "replaced by a network of pneumatic tubes," and your car would only need enough power to get from your home to the nearest tube. Then, by the calculations of a Honeywell engineer, "they will be pneumatically powered to any desired destination."

如果你厭倦了柏油路和隨之而來的坑坑窪窪，那麼你會希望《大衆機械》對21世紀的預測是正確的。在1957年的一篇文章中，該雜誌預測，美國的每條街道都將“被一個氣動管道網絡取代”，你的汽車只需要足夠的動力就可以從你家開到最近的管道。然後，根據霍尼韋爾公司一位工程師的計算，“人們將通過氣動動力到達任何想去的目的地”。

dy will work and everybody will be rich.

大家都不用工作，每個人都有錢

In 1966, Time magazine reported that the 21st century would be a pretty awesome economic era for just about everybody. In an essay called "The Futurists," they predicted that "machines will be producing so much that everyone in the US will, in effect, be independently wealthy." Without even lifting a finger, the average non-working family could expect to earn an average salary of between $30,000 and $40,000, according to Time. That's in 1966 dollars, mind you; in 2020, that'd be about $300,000—for doing nothing. We wish!

1966年，《時代》雜誌報道說，21世紀對幾乎所有人來說都將是一個很棒的經濟時代。他們在一篇名爲《未來學家》的文章中預測，“機器產量如此之大，所有美國人實際上都能獨立致富。”據《時代》雜誌報道，一個普通的無工作家庭甚至不需要動一根指頭，就能拿到3萬美元（約合人民幣20.8萬元）到4萬美元的平均工資。注意，那是1966年的美元，大約相當於2020年的30萬美元。我們倒是希望呢！