科學揭祕：羅馬帝國滅亡的真正原因

Climate change could have been responsible for bringing down the Roman Empire, scientists believe。

據科學家們的推測，氣候變化或是導致鼎盛一時的羅馬帝國覆滅的“元兇”。

Researchers studied ancient tree growth rings to show links between climate change and major events in human history such as migrations, plagues and the rise and fall of empires。

通過對古樹年輪的走向的研究之後，科學家們發現，氣候的變化與例如人口遷移、瘟疫、王朝興衰等人類社會的重大歷史事件之間都存在着聯繫。

They discovered that periods of warm, wet weather coincided with period of prosperity, while droughts or varying conditions occurred at times of political upheaval such as the demise of the Roman Empire。

他們發現，在氣候溫暖溼潤的時期，社會經濟發展呈現出欣欣向榮的景象，而在乾旱或其他極端天氣的影響下，政治動亂頻發，而這便是導致了羅馬帝國滅亡的原因。

To match the environmental record with the historical one, researchers looked at more than 7,200 tree fossils from the past 2,500 years。

爲了印證環境情況與人類歷史之間的關係，科學家們研究了超過7200多塊樹齡在2500年以上的古樹化石。

The study, published in the journal Science, said: 'The rise and fall of past civilizations have been associated with environmental change, mainly due to effects on water supply and agricultural productivity, human health and civil conflict。

這篇發表於《科學》雜誌的報告稱，人類文明的興衰起伏總是與氣候環境的變化密切相關，這主要便現在水源供應、農業生產、人體健康和社會衝突方面。

'Wet and warm summers occurred during periods of Roman and Medieval prosperity。

在夏季溫暖潮溼的時期正是羅馬和中世紀的繁榮時期。

'Increased climate variability from AD 250 to 600 coincided with the demise of the Western Roman Empire and the turmoil of the Migration Period。

而從公元250年到600年間，氣候變法平凡，這正好配合了西羅馬帝國的衰落以及動盪的遷移時期的到來。

'Distinct drying in the third century paralleled a period of serious crisis in the western Roman Empire marked by barbarian invasion, political turmoil and economic dislocation in several provinces in Gaul.'

三世紀時爆發大規模的乾旱，西羅馬帝國在這時慘遭野蠻的入侵，在高盧的很多地區政治局面不穩，經濟凋敝。Oak rings are sensitive to changes in precipitation, and can show changes according to what was happening in the environment。

樹木的年輪對於降水量的變化十分的敏感，它記錄了不同時期的環境狀況以及變化。

The research could also glean signs about what was happening from changes in how many trees were being cut。

這項研究還收集了有關於樹木減少所導致的環境改變之間的聯繫。

The study said: 'Reduced tree harvesting around AD 250 to 400 coincides with the biggest central Europe historical crisis, the Migration Period, a time marked by lasting political turmoil, cultural change and socio-economic instability。

研究稱，公元250年到400年間，樹木被大量的砍伐，與此同時恰逢歐洲大陸正遭受着有史以來最大的危機，大遷移，此時標誌性的社會現象包括了政治更迭、文化變遷以及經歷衰退。

'Increasing timber harvest for construction is represented by abundant felling parallel to socio-economic consolidation from the sixth to the ninth centuries.'

因建築需求所而引發的大規模的伐木行爲，正好出現在了社會經濟趨於平穩的六世紀到九世紀之間。

The scientists said 'unfavourable climate may have contributed to the spread of the second plague pandemic, the Black Death, which reduced central Europe's population after AD 1347 by 40 to 60 percent.'

科學家們還表示，不利的天氣條件也助漲了第二次的鼠疫大爆發，黑死病，這些流行病的傳染導致了1347之後歐洲人口驟減四到六成。

Researchers also noted that a sharp decline in North American temperatures around the same time saw an 'abrupt desertion of former Greenland settlements'。

研究人員還指出，北美地區在同時期出現了氣溫劇烈下降的情況，從而迫使了大批人口從格林蘭島遷出。

Technological advances have made the modern human population less vulnerable to environmental changes to a certain extent, the study said。

隨着科學技術的進步，人類受到氣候環境變化的影響也越來越小。

However we are 'certainly not immune to the predicted temperature and precipitation changes, especially considering that migration to more favourable habitats as an adaptive response will not be an option in an increasingly crowded world.'

儘管如此，我們並不能倖免於可預知的氣溫及降水變化，而在這個日益擁擠的世界裏，遷移已經不再是一個選擇和適應環境的辦法了。