意法不能對歐洲復甦袖手旁觀

Not long ago, before the euro existed, French politicians would have felt uncomfortable presenting a budget in deficit. The devaluation of the franc against the Deutschmark was unpalatable at home and would have provoked a costly reaction from the markets. The single currency appears to have worked since as an anaesthetic. On the eve of the European Commission’s scrutiny of its 2015 budget – and after overshooting its deficit-reduction targets for a third time – France displays a disconcerting air of nonchalance.

不久前，也就是在歐元誕生之前，法國政治人士若遞交一份帶赤字的預算，會覺得很不舒服。那時，法國法郎對德國馬克貶值會在法國國內引起不滿，還會刺激市場作出帶來嚴重後果的反應。自歐元誕生以來，該單一貨幣似乎起到了一種麻醉劑的作用。在歐盟委員會(European Commission)審查其2015年預算前夕，面對第三次未實現減赤目標的局面，法國卻表現得滿不在乎。這種情緒有點令人不安。

So, three years after the eurozone reinforced its economic governance and brought in the fiscal compact – the treaty that strengthens the terms of the EU’s stability and growth pact – where are we, and where do we go?

那麼，在歐元區加強經濟治理並引入財政契約——即強化歐盟《穩定與增長公約》(Stability and Growth Pact)條款的條約——三年後的今天，我們身處何處、又將去向何方？

The fear of a euro break-up has gone, and the days of make-or-break summits are over. But now the spectre of deflation haunts a highly unstable geopolitical climate. Some member states at the periphery underwent reform programmes that have broadly succeeded. Today it is the largest economies – France, Germany and Italy – that hold the answer to the European recovery conundrum.

歐元區解體恐慌已經消散，召開生死攸關峯會的日子也已成爲過去。然而，通縮陰雲正籠罩在歐元區上空，該地區的地緣政治環境也處於極不穩定的狀態。一些外圍成員國實施了改革計劃，這些改革大體上取得了成功。如今，要破解歐洲復甦難題，得向法、德、意這三個歐元區最大的經濟體尋找答案。

If persistent high fiscal deficit and increasing public debt resulted in rapid economic growth, then France and Italy would be European champions; Japan would be the world’s leading economic power; and Finland would be running the show in the Nordic area. What these countries have in common is a lack of appetite for structural reforms.

如果居高不下的財政赤字和不斷膨脹的公共債務能帶來快速的經濟增長，那麼法國和意大利將是歐洲的領頭羊，日本將是世界頭號經濟強國，芬蘭將是北歐的霸主。上述諸國的共同之處在於，都對結構性改革興趣索然。

When Germany broke the terms of the stability and growth pact in 2003-04, it did so to implement a bold reform agenda that is unanimously applauded today. Should structural reforms be implemented in France and Italy, the European Central Bank would be reassured that its monetary stimulus was being channelled effectively through to the real economy to boost lending to enterprises and households.

2003-04年，德國違背了《穩定與增長公約》的條款，其目的在於落實一個大膽的改革議程，該議程如今獲得一致好評。如果法國和意大利實施結構性改革，將會打消歐洲央行(ECB)的疑慮，讓其相信其貨幣刺激將被有效傳導至實體經濟、來擴大對企業和家庭的放貸。

But genuine reforms in France are still pending. The reshuffled government does not have the support of its Socialist majority. The republic’s rigid institutional system prevents Prime Minister Manuel Valls and Emmanuel Macron, economy minister, from co-operating with like-minded elements in the opposition, making it impossible to abandon the 35-hour working week or suffocating taxes on producers and companies. Ultimately, without reforms, the social system cannot continue to be financed by salaries; the burden must be shifted to consumption, in the form of a “social value added tax”, for instance.

然而，法國仍不知何時才能實施真正的改革。改組後的政府未能獲得多數黨社會黨(Socialist)的支持。法國僵化的建制體系，使得總理曼努埃爾•瓦爾斯(Manuel Valls)和經濟部長埃馬紐埃爾•馬克龍(Emmanuel Macron)無法與反對黨中與他們政見相似的成員合作，因此要廢止35小時工作制和封殺針對生產者和企業的某些稅收比登天還難。歸根結底，不實施改革，社保體系所需的資金就無法繼續由工資來提供；擔子只能由消費來承擔，比如以“社會增值稅”(Social VAT)的方式。

Rallies in Rome this weekend were a reminder that Matteo Renzi, the prime minister, is still struggling with factions in his PArtito Democratico, despite its victory in the European elections.

儘管意大利總理馬泰奧•倫齊(Matteo Renzi)所在的民主黨(Partito Democratico)在歐洲議會(European Parliament)選舉中取得勝利，但不久前羅馬爆發的羣衆集會表明，倫齊仍在與民主黨內各派別作鬥爭。

Should the Rome-Paris axis implement genuine reforms, Germany would be inclined to boost its own domestic demand, particularly by increasing public and private investment. In return, a clear signal from Berlin that it is ready to boost internal demand would be welcomed in Paris and Rome.

如果意法軸心實施貨真價實的改革，那麼德國可能會願意提振國內的需求，特別是以擴大公共和私人投資的方式。反過來，柏林發出的準備提振內需的明確信號，也會受到巴黎和羅馬的歡迎。

At the same time, the ECB should go all the way down the road of monetary policy. Quantitative easing would help fell the spectre of deflation and assure leaders in France and Italy that economic reform is worth the political cost because it would keep up stronger economic activity and domestic demand.

與此同時，歐洲央行應推行儘可能積極的貨幣政策。量化寬鬆有助於驅散通縮陰雲，有助於讓法國和意大利領導人相信推行經濟改革不需要付出那麼大的政治代價，因爲量化寬鬆會使經濟活動和內需維持在較強勁的水平。

The reinforced economic governance of the eurozone and the decisive actions of the ECB have helped to stabilise the economy. Now member states must do their bit. European economic governance is not in the first instance about sanctions but about a partnership for reform orchestrated by the member states themselves and helped by the commission. Any successful strategy to boost growth requires the member states concerned to take ownership of reforms. The Commission’s chief role is to help identify the most significant reforms to underpin growth. The euro group, comprising eurozone finance ministers, must push for this too.

歐元區加強經濟治理和歐洲央行採取果斷行動，幫助穩定了經濟。現在，各成員國必須盡到自己的責任。歐洲經濟治理的本意不是制裁，而是合作實施由各成員國自身精心策劃、由歐盟委員會幫助推動的改革。任何成功的促增長戰略，都需要相關成員國投身改革。歐盟委員會的主要任務，是幫助確定促增長的最重要改革。由歐元區各國財長組成的歐元集團(Euro Group)，也必須爲此努力。

Only peer pressure, opprobrium and fear of losing influence will shake leaders up. Still, Rome and Paris should not wait until they have lost all their political capital before taking decisive action.

只有同儕壓力、公衆的責難以及對失去影響力的恐懼，才能讓各國領導人的內心產生震撼。話雖如此，意大利和法國還是應該趕在失去全部政治資本之前採取果斷行動。

The year 2017 will be crucial. The fiscal compact will have to be integrated into EU treaties; the EU budgetary framework for 2014-20 will be revised; and the UK will hold a referendum on a renegotiated membership which, given public opinion, will be hard to escape, even if the opposition Labour party wins the 2015 general election. At the same time, Germany and France will go to the polls. All the stars are aligned for big changes in Europe.

2017年將是關鍵一年。屆時，財政契約將必須整合到歐盟條約中；2014-20年歐盟預算框架將被修訂；英國將就是否保留其通過重新談判得到的歐盟成員國資格舉行公投，考慮到英國現在的民意，這次公投將是難以避免的，哪怕是反對黨工黨(Labour Party)贏得2015年的大選。同時，德國和法國將舉行大選。歐盟所有成員國都將迎來鉅變。

The writers, Liberal MEPs, are respectively former Commission vice-president for economic and monetary affairs; and chair of the European Parliament budgets committee and French finance minister, 1995-97

奧利•雷恩(Olli Rehn)和讓•阿爾蒂(Jean Arthuis)現爲歐洲議會自由派議員；雷恩曾任歐盟委員會經濟與貨幣事務專員；阿爾蒂曾在1995年至1997年任法國財長，現任歐洲議會預算委員會主席