3分鐘教你看懂人民幣升值的那些事

What happened:Last year China's currency reached an all-time high against the dollar, gaining 3% to hit 6.05 yuan per dollar. It capped a nice eight-year run since 2005, when the currency finally dropped its strict peg to the dollar. Since then, the liberalized yuan has risen by 35%.

人民幣升值歷程：去年，人民幣兌美元創歷史新高，匯率上升3%，達到了6.05元。人民幣終於成功完成了長達八年的長跑。2005年，人民幣不再單一盯住美元。之後，更加自由的人民幣升值了35%。

Why the rise?

人民幣爲什麼升值？

The global economy grew, and Chinese exports expanded in 2013. That's it, more or less. But it's never so easy in China because the central bank keeps tight control over the yuan by basically preventing trade imbalances from driving up the yuan's value too much. (China adsorbed net inflows of 387 billion U.S. dollars last year, according to Deutsche Bank.) For technical reasons, China allows the yuan to trade (you can buy yuan futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange), but strict limits are imposed so the currency can't move dramatically day to day.

2013年，全球經濟增長，中國出口擴大。基本就是這些原因。但中國的情況更加複雜，因爲中國央行一直對人民幣實行嚴格的監管，防範因人民幣升值過快造成貿易失衡。【據德意志銀行（Deutsche Bank）披露，去年流入中國的淨資金爲3,870億美元。】至於技術原因，雖然中國允許人民幣交易【投資者可以在芝加哥商品交易所（Chicago Mercantile Exchange）購買人民幣期權】，但政府對這類交易實行嚴格限制，因此，導致人民幣不可能每天出現大幅波動。

Why it matters

爲什麼說人民幣升值很重要？

China is in the middle of a rebalancing act, as Michael Pettis, professor of finance at Peking University's Guanghua School of Management, has eloquently pointed out. The yuan's rise is important to China's future, but it can't rise so fast that it imperils China's present. Pettis says the country must let the yuan's value increase so that the real value of household income relative to GDP expands. That is, the higher the yuan's value, the lower the price of imported consumer goods -- and all goods face some kind of import cost. "Even if you're drinking cup of Chinese tea [in Beijing], that had to be transported from Yunnan using oil, steel, trucks, so you're always importing," Pettis says. The flipside is, the more the yuan rises, the less attractive China's exports become to overseas buyers, because a strong currency increases the price foreigners pay for Chinese goods. The government must decide how much wealth it wants to transfer from manufactures to households by letting the yuan rise. Pettis believes if China revalues slowly, the balancing act will play out smoothly -- Chinese exporters gain new domestic customers as they lose overseas ones. But it's too early to say if that's happening. "Who knows whether this is the right pace or not," says Pettis, adding, "It seems to be reasonably successful."

北京大學（Peking University）光華管理學院（Guanghua School of Management）教授邁克爾o佩蒂斯曾堅定地指出，中國正處於再平衡過程中。人民幣升值對中國的未來至關重要，但人民幣不能升值過快，否則將危及中國的現狀。佩蒂斯表示，中國必須允許人民幣升值，以增加家庭收入相對GDP的實際價值。也就是說，人民幣價值越高，進口消費品的價格就越低——所有商品都將面臨一定的進口成本。佩蒂斯說：“就算你只是（在北京）喝一杯中國茶，也必須使用石油、鋼鐵、卡車把茶從雲南運到北京。所以我們始終離不開進口。”但另一方面，人民幣價值越高，中國出口商品便會逐漸喪失對海外消費者的吸引力，因爲強勢的貨幣必將提高外國人購買中國商品的價格。政府必須想清楚，到底希望通過人民幣升值把多少財富從製造商轉移到普通家庭手中。佩蒂斯相信，如果中國緩慢調整幣值，中國的平衡做法將順利完成——中國出口商在失去海外客戶的同時，可以獲得新的國內客戶。但現在說這些還爲時尚早。佩蒂斯說：“誰也不知道這到底是否是正確的節奏，不過看起來會相當成功。”

What else really matters?

人民幣升值還有哪些重要影響？

The yuan's rise is important to China and the world. Just ask any politician in the U.S. who has manufacturers in their district. But what if we're missing the bigger picture, which is not how high the yuan will eventually rise, but rather, can China rebalance another major financial concern: theextreme loads of debt in its economy. George Soros gave his take on China's debt problems earlier this month in a Project Syndicate column. He said when China's central bank took measures to curb excesses in 2012, the economy showed distress. So in 2013 it eased credit, and poof, the economy picked up. "There is an unresolved self-contradiction in China's current policies," he wrote. "Restarting the furnaces also reignites exponential debt growth, which cannot be sustained for much longer than a couple of years." After that, China's political and economic reforms have to kick in and improve the situation. The yuan's moves will likely be consequences of the path China chooses.

人民幣升值對中國和世界都非常重要。不妨問問美國那些在選區有製造商的政客。但我們可能忽視了更重大的問題。更重要的並不是人民幣最終升到多高，而是中國能否解決另外一個嚴重的財務問題：超高的債務負擔。本月早些時候，喬治o索羅斯在辛迪加項目（Project Syndicate）專欄發表文章，談到了自己對中國債務問題的看法。他表示，2012年，中國央行採取措施遏制過度放貸，結果導致經濟出現低迷。所以，2013年，中國央行放鬆了對貸款的限制，經濟馬上就出現了好轉。他寫道：“中國現行政策存在尚未解決的自相矛盾之處。重新開動鍊鋼爐將導致債務大幅增加。這種增長模式也許只能持續幾年時間。”其次，中國的政治和經濟改革必須有效改變現狀。人民幣未來的走向將取決於中國所選擇的道路。

The yuan's next big event

人民幣的下一件大事

Its rise in 2014. The same time next year we'll know what the Chinese have accomplished. Did they stay on a steady path, allowing the currency to rise 2-2.5% in 2014 like most Wall Street economists predict today? Or maybe they let it strengthen more, transferring more wealth to households. We'll sort it out in another year.

2014年繼續升值。明年這個時候，我們將知道中國取得了哪些成就。2014年，中國是否會像華爾街經濟學家們預測的那樣，繼續允許人民幣穩步升值2-2.5%？或者，中國會讓人民幣更大幅度升值，將更多財富分配給普通家庭。我們拭目以待。（財富中文網）