卡夫與亨氏強強聯合 鐵定盈利增長嗎
By now, we know that two things are likely when it comes to a 3G/Warren Buffett investment pairing: First, there will be massive cost and personnel cuts; Second, Buffett and the partners of 3G will make lots of money. There is no reason to think otherwise with today’s blockbuster deal, the Buffett/3G-owned Heinz’s $40 billion purchase of Kraft, the $18 billion (sales) maker of mac & cheese and Jell-O.
迄今，我們都已知曉當巴菲特和巴西私募股權公司3G資本合作併購一家公司後，很可能發生兩件事：一是將大幅削減成本、裁撤人員；二是巴菲特以及3G公司的合夥人們最後將大賺一筆。近日宣佈的這筆重磅交易也不會例外——巴菲特和3G公司共同持有的亨氏以400億美元併購卡夫。卡夫公司的產品包括mac & cheese奶酪和Jell-O果凍，年銷售額爲180億美元。
The food industry has long been ripe for drastic consolidation. Yet on a conference call discussing the deal, the anointed CEO of Kraft Heinz, Bernardo Hees (currently the chief of Heinz), and his boss, 3G cofounder and managing partner Alex Behring, stuck to one unified story line in explaining the expected benefit of the deal. As Behring put it, “This transaction is all about growth.”
食品行業渴盼大刀闊斧整合久矣。然而，在關於此次併購的電話會議中，談到交易後的預期效益，受命擔任新卡夫亨氏公司首席執行官的貝爾納o赫斯（現亨氏掌門人）與3G聯席創始人兼管理合夥人亞歷克斯o貝林口徑一致。用後者的話來說：“本次交易完全是爲了增長。”But growth of what, exactly? Here are some things that, based on past history, may not expand.
但要增長什麼？從過去的歷史來看，以下幾項可能會只減不增。
–Jobs. Some 7,000 jobs have been slashed at Heinz since the merger took place two years ago. Plants have been shuttered, the headquarters reduced from two buildings to one. Hees said on the call that he intended to keep both companies’ headquarters in place in Pittsburgh (Heinz) and Chicago (Kraft), but expect dramatic consolidation there and elsewhere.
——職位。亨氏自兩年前被併購以來，已砍掉近7000個工作崗位。多家工廠關門、總部辦公樓也從兩棟減至一棟。赫斯在電話會議上表示，他打算保留兩家公司的總部（亨氏總部位於匹茲堡，而卡夫總部位於芝加哥），但各處都將大力進行整合。–Revenues. Since 3G took charge, Heinz’s profits are way up, but sales have fallen from $11.7 billion in 2012, the year before the merger, to $10.9 billion last year. This is in part because of cost cuts, but it’s also becausetrends in the processed food industry show a shift away from big food and toward more health-conscious items.
——收入。被3G收購以來，亨氏的利潤大漲，但銷售額卻從2012年（併購前一年）的117億美元降至去年的109億美元。這部分原因在於成本削減，還有部分原因則在於加工食品行業出現了變化，人們日益青睞更爲健康的食品，而非食品業巨頭的產品。–Suppliers and consultants (other than Accenture). Outsiders with a relationship to Kraft, look out. 3G is loyal primarily to one outside firm—Accenture—and uses zero-based budgeting. That means every penny of spending must be justified every single year. Suppliers can expect to be told to reduce their costs by 20% or more, or risk losing the business. As it says in a chapter heading of a book called “Double Your Profits,” a tome favored by the top executives at 3G, “When suppliers say no, hit them again and again.”
——供應商和顧問公司【除了埃森哲以外】。與卡夫有業務往來的公司，要小心了。3G只對埃森哲這一家外部企業忠誠，並且採用零基預算。這意味着每年都必須證明支出的每一分錢都花得有道理。供應商很可能被告知將成本削減20％以上，否則就可能丟掉生意。3G公司最高管理層很推崇一部名爲《利潤倍增》的大作，該書中有一章名爲“當供應商說不，再三敲打他們”。–The current executive team. At both Heinz and Burger King, 3G immediately initiated sweeping turnover at the top. At Heinz alone, 11 of the top 12 executives were replaced, many by 3G execs, many of them Brazilian, with experience in implementing its playbook. Burger King has experienced a similar realignment. Execs who hope to stay should be ready to appear—with no more than one piece of paper in hand—for a sitdown interview with Hees.
——當前的高管團隊。3G立刻在亨氏和漢堡王進行了管理層大換血。僅在亨氏，12名頂級高管中，就有11人被取而代之，新上任的高管大多來自3G公司，其中很多都是巴西人，在貫徹3G公司戰略方面頗具經驗。漢堡王經歷了類似的改組。那些希望留下來的高管，應該準備好單槍匹馬的與赫斯坐下來面談。–Kraft’s relationship with McDonald’s MCD -1.23% . Because 3G also owns Burger King, the purchase of Heinz didn’t sit well with McDonald’s, which dropped Heinz as its ketchup supplier not long after the 3G merger went through. Kraft and McDonald’s recently announced a giant deal to roll out bagged coffee nationwide. Will that relationship take a hit too?
——卡夫與麥當勞的關係。由於3G旗下還擁有漢堡王，其收購亨氏引起了麥當勞的不滿。因此，該交易完成後不久，麥當勞就不再用亨氏作爲自身番茄醬供應商。不久前，卡夫和麥當勞宣佈了在全美推出袋裝咖啡的一筆大交易。此合作項目是否也將受到影響？
