人民幣時代迅速臨近

Come June, the International Monetary Fund will probably decide to include the Chinese renminbi in its special drawing rights (SDR).

6月將至，國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)很可能將決定把人民幣納入其特別提款權(SDR)貨幣籃子。

Though the move is largely symbolic, the symbolism is huge. It is another acknowledgment of China’s growing stature in the global economy and financial markets. It is also a marker underscoring how swiftly China is moving to dismantle capital controls, in line with the reform policies of the People’s Bank of China.

儘管此舉主要是象徵性的，但象徵的意義卻很大。這是對中國在全球經濟和金融市場中地位不斷上升的再次認可。這也是一種標誌，突顯出中國正多麼迅速地按照中國央行的改革政策，採取措施解除資本管制。

That in turn has implications for investors. It will mean China could soon assume an even larger weight in crucial global financial markets. For example, today, China is a mere 2.5 per cent of the MSCI All Country World Index, based on Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong. But, when the powers that be decide the currency is convertible enough, onshore Chinese shares could be included in the index, which means its share of the index could rise to more than 10 per cent, according to Michael Cembalest of JPMorgan Asset Management.

這進而會對投資者產生影響。此舉將意味着，不久之後中國可能會在關鍵的全球金融市場中佔據越來越大的權重。舉例來說，目前中國在摩根士丹利資本國際全球指數(MSCI All-Country World Index)中的權重僅爲2.5%，這個數字是基於在香港上市的H股得出的。但是，當權威人士認定人民幣可兌換性已足夠強時，A股可能會被納入該指數。摩根大通資產管理公司(JPMorgan Asset Management)的邁克爾•琴巴萊斯特(Michael Cembalest)表示，這意味着中國在該指數中所佔權重可能會升至10%以上。

Today, the renminbi is most visible as the currency in which a growing portion of Chinese trade is denominated. Chinese companies often offer more attractive prices and financing to counterparts that will trade in renminbi, thereby eliminating their own foreign exchange risk.

如今，隨着中國對外貿易中以人民幣計價的比例越來越高，人民幣已成爲最常用的支付貨幣之一。中國企業經常向貿易對象提供更具吸引力的價格和融資、換取對方採用人民幣結算，從而消除自身的匯率風險。

More importantly, the renminbi is also growing in stature as an investable currency. Today, Mr Cembalest adds, central banks and sovereign wealth funds have invested between Rmb300bn and Rmb400bn in renminbi-denominated assets. While most of these are in Asia, the European Central Bank has also said it is considering investing in such assets.

更重要的是，人民幣作爲可投資貨幣的地位也在上升。琴巴萊斯特補充稱，如今，各國央行和主權財富基金投資的人民幣計價資產在3000億至4000億元人民幣之間。這些機構大多來自亞洲，不過，歐洲央行(ECB)也表示正考慮投資人民幣資產。

Moreover, Japanese central bankers say they are considering agreements whereby the Bank of Japan and the PBoC would expand investing in each other’s government bond markets (assuming the forthcoming anniversary of the end of the second world war does not lead to a new outbreak of hostilities between the two countries). The two central banks are also considering resuming swap lines. China already has almost Rmb10tn of such arrangements with 30 central banks.

此外，日本央行(BoJ)官員表示，他們正考慮與中國央行達成協議，擴大對彼此國債的投資（前提是即將到來的二戰結束週年紀念活動不導致兩國之間爆發新的對抗）。這兩國的央行還在考慮恢復貨幣互換。中國已與30家央行達成了規模近10萬億元人民幣的貨幣互換協議。

Meanwhile, China’s young asset management groups and securities firms are designing ever more products in local currency both onshore and offshore, where Rmb2tn in deposits sits, most of them in Hong Kong.

同時，中國年輕的資產管理集團和券商正在設計更多以本幣計價的在岸和離岸產品。離岸人民幣存款規模達2萬億元人民幣，其中大多數位於香港。

China does not have to remove all controls on its currency, particularly rules on portfolio investment flows, for it to qualify for inclusion in the IMF basket. Even today, only four items out of 40, or less than 15 per cent of the capital account, have restrictions, according to Qu Hongbin, chief China economist for HSBC in Hong Kong. After all, even Singapore and Hong Kong retain some constraints on their currencies. The Chinese government’s willingness to remove restrictions on the renminbi comes in the face of widespread fears, especially outside China, of slowing economic growth on the mainland and of a possible debt crisis, given the fact that debt in China has grown by 70 per cent since the global financial crisis in 2008.

取消對人民幣的一切管制、特別是針對證券投資流動的規定，並非人民幣夠格被納入IMF貨幣籃子的必要條件。駐香港的匯豐(HSBC)首席中國經濟學家屈宏斌表示，即便是現在，人民幣資本項目40個子項中也只有4個（也就是不到15%）不可兌換。畢竟，就連新加坡和香港也對自己的貨幣保留了部分限制。在人們、尤其是中國以外的人們對中國內地經濟增長放緩和可能爆發的債務危機（2008年全球金融危機以來中國的債務增加了70%）普遍感到擔憂之際，中國政府還是展現出瞭解除人民幣管制的意願。

The combination of offshore flows from various conglomerates and diminishing returns on domestic investment suggests that as China lifts controls, at least over a short period of time, the renminbi will lose value. After all, in the past three quarters, there has been about $333bn in outflows of hot money from China, (much of them from companies hedging or repaying their dollar debt). Moreover, reserves, which ended the year at $3.8tn, declined to $3.73tn at the end of the first quarter.

形形色色的企業集團將資金轉往海外，而國內投資回報又不斷下降，這兩點結合在一起，意味着假如中國解除人民幣管制，人民幣至少在短期內將會貶值。畢竟，過去3個季度，有大約3330億美元熱錢流出了中國（許多都是通過企業對衝或償還美元債務的方式流出的）。此外，截至今年一季度末，中國外匯儲備從去年底的3.8萬億美元降至3.73萬億美元。

So far, the renminbi has been one of the few currencies to hold its value against the dollar in a world of increasing competitive devaluations. China has recently started to ease monetary policy, but is trying to do so in a more measured way than either Japan or Europe. A one-time competitive devaluation to support exports is less attractive to the Chinese than the gradual appreciation that makes its currency attractive as a store of value. The growing legitimacy of the renminbi also comes at a time when the rest of the world is looking for a credible alternative to the dollar as the only real reserve currency. Cliff Tan, MUFG economist, jokes that the acronym SDR should stand for “some day renminbi”. That “some day” is fast approaching.

在世界各國的競爭性貨幣貶值愈演愈烈之際，人民幣迄今爲止是少數幾個相對美元幣值保持堅挺的貨幣之一。中國最近開始放鬆貨幣政策，但相對於日本或歐洲，中國在努力以更謹慎的方式做這件事。對中國來說，與其實施一次性的競爭性貶值以支持出口，不如緩慢升值以增加人民幣作爲價值儲藏手段的吸引力。此外，人民幣正統地位日益增強的同時，世界其餘國家正在尋找美元的可靠替代品，以作爲唯一的實際儲備貨幣。三菱日聯金融集團(MUFG)經濟學家陳仲華(Cliff Tan)戲稱，SDR這個英文縮寫應該代表“some day renminbi（有朝一日將是人民幣）”。這一天正迅速臨近。