研究表明 毛式政策遠期會爲中國帶來更快增長

With the Chinese economy slowing and its stock market bubble bursting, debate is raging inside and outside the country about how to ensure the most populous nation remains the biggest driver of global growth.

隨着中國經濟放緩和股市泡沫破裂，境內外人士展開了一場激烈辯論，焦點是如何確保這個人口最多的國家繼續充當全球增長的最大推動力？

Probably the only thing on which all sides agree is that a return to the collectivist totalitarianism of the Maoist era economics would be a bad idea.

各方唯一同意的一點很可能是，回到毛澤東時代的集體主義/極權主義經濟範式將是一個餿主意。

But according to research by four prominent economists, maybe Chinese policymakers should not be too quick to rule that out.

但是，根據四位知名經濟學家的研究，中國的政策制定者也許不應太快排除這個選項。

In a paper, the economists, based at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Princeton, Yale and Sciences Po in Paris, have examined productivity and growth rates in China at the height of the Maoist period and extrapolated those to predict how China would grow between now and 2050 had the country returned to those policies. They concluded that the abolition of the private sector in China and a return to a command economy would yield an annual average gross domestic product growth of 4-5 per cent. That is about one percentage point less than the average growth they predict China will achieve if it continues with market-based reforms that began in the late 1970s and that are credited with lifting hundreds of millions of people out of poverty.

分別來自達拉斯聯邦儲備銀行(Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)、普林斯頓大學(Princeton)、耶魯大學(Yale)和巴黎政治學院(Sciences Po)的這些經濟學家，在一篇論文中分析了中國在毛時代巔峯時期的生產率和經濟增長率，並在外推這些數據的基礎上預測：若重拾這些政策，中國經濟從現在到2050年將如何增長？他們得出的結論是，若中國廢除私營部門，恢復指令性經濟體制，將實現4%至5%的年均國內生產總值(GDP)增長。這比他們預測的中國在繼續推進始於上世紀70年代末的市場改革情況下將實現的年均增長率低了大約一個百分點；改革被譽爲讓數億人擺脫了貧困。

“Our model is essentially an accounting exercise that allows us to uncover the key factors of growth in China during and after the Mao era,” said Aleh Tsyvinski, a professor of economics at Yale and co-author of the report.

“我們的模型本質上是一次會計練習，讓我們能夠發現中國在毛時代期間和之後的經濟增長的關鍵因素，”耶魯大學經濟學家、報告的作者之一艾勒奇溫斯基(Aleh Tsyvinski)表示。

“The main point of our findings is that, contrary to common misconceptions, productivity growth under Mao, particularly in the non-agricultural sector, was actually pretty good.”

“我們的研究結果的要點是，與一般人的誤解相反，在毛掌權期間，中國的生產率增長實際上相當不錯，尤其是在非農部門。”

Assuming a continuation of current policies, the paper forecasts that the economy will expand by 7-8 per cent for the next decade, slowing to 5.2 per cent on average between 2024 and 2036 and then 3.6 per cent between 2036 and 2050. That is slower than the 3.9 per cent rate it predicts between 2036 and 2050 if China were to return to Maoist policies introduced after the Great Leap Forward, in which 30m people died in a famine that was largely the result of economic mismanagement.

這篇論文預測，假設現行政策得到延續，中國經濟未來10年的年均增長率將保持在7%至8%，在2024年至2036年期間放緩至年均增長5.2%，在2036年至2050年期間進一步放緩至3.6%。而根據他們的預測，中國如果重拾大躍進後出爐的毛主義政策，在2036年至2050年期間年均增長率將達到3.9%。大躍進引發了一場大饑荒，導致3000萬人喪生，其主要原因是經濟上的瞎折騰。

The authors focused on economic factors and did not consider the impact of individual policies or the social costs of Mao’s campaigns and purges, which left millions of people dead, ostracised or imprisoned in gulags.

這幾位作者聚焦於經濟因素，而沒有考慮具體政策的影響，也沒有考慮毛髮起的運動和清洗所造成的社會代價。當年這些運動和清洗導致數以百萬計的人死亡、流放或關押在勞改營。