國際大銀行不懼人民幣波動 Global bank CEOs untroubled by renminbi volatility

Jamie Dimon spoke for many big-bank executives last month when he glossed over glitches in China.

上個月，當傑米戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)爲中國的麻煩打圓場時，他代表了許多大銀行高管的立場。

Presenting second-quarter earnings from the New York headquarters of JPMorgan Chase, the largest US bank by assets, the chairman and chief executive said he disagreed with the idea that Beijing’s recent attempts to prevent a collapse in stock prices had signalled a retreat from open markets.

在摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)紐約總部公佈第二季度財報時，該行的這位董事長兼首席執行官表示，對於中國政府近來阻止股市崩盤的努力表明其在開放市場方面開了倒車的觀點，他並不認同。以資產計，摩根大通是美國最大的銀行。

“Not everything they do is going to work, but they still seem very committed to more and more market reform,” he said, citing last year’s link between the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock exchanges and efforts to broaden overseas usage of the renminbi. “I think they have the wherewithal to meet their short-term objectives of growth, but they will have bumps in the road. We expect that, and we’re going to look right through that.”

“他們的努力並非全會奏效，但他們實行更多市場改革的決心看上去仍然非常堅定，”他以去年推出的“滬港通”機制以及中國擴大人民幣海外使用量的努力爲例說，“我認爲，他們擁有實現短期增長目標的必要資本，但他們在途中會有顛簸。我們預料到會發生這種情況，我們會把目光放長遠。”

That long-term view explains why banks have been sanguine, on the whole, over last week’s wobbles in the currency.

長期前景解釋了爲何銀行業對人民幣上週的動盪行情總體上持樂觀態度。

The decision last week by the People’s Bank of China to allow the renminbi to move more freely triggered a lurch downwards of as much as 4 per cent, startling many market watchers.

上週，中國央行決定允許人民幣匯率更自由地變動，引發人民幣匯率大跌4%，令許多市場觀察人士感到震驚。

But while Western lenders, including Standard Chartered, HSBC and Citigroup, could be in for a rough ride if the swing in China’s currency is the start of a prolonged devaluation, banks say they are determined to ride out any shorter-term turmoil.

包括渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)、匯豐(HSBC)和花旗集團(Citigroup)在內的西方銀行可能會面臨一段艱難旅程——假如人民幣上週的波動是長期貶值開端的話。儘管如此，這些銀行仍表示，即使短期內遭遇動盪，它們也決意要渡過這些難關。

The most obvious effect of a weaker currency is valuation losses on banks’ loans and trading assets in China, which many have used as a bridgehead in the world’s second-largest economy. A lower currency could also spell trouble for customers in China who have borrowed US dollars or euros but are earning renminbi — the “classic FX mismatch,” in the words of Keith Pogson, senior partner of EY’s Asia-Pacific financial services team.

人民幣貶值的最明顯效果是銀行在華貸款和交易性資產的估值損失。這些貸款和交易性資產被許多銀行用作它們在這個全球第二大經濟體的橋頭堡。人民幣貶值也可能給一些借入了美元或歐元、但其收入以人民幣計價的中國客戶帶來麻煩——用安永(EY)亞太金融服務業務主管包凱(Keith Pogson)的話說，這屬於“典型的外匯錯配”。

Western banks also face risks from domestic Chinese counterparts which have borrowed dollars to lend to their own clients. “Asian banks are extremely used to borrowing cheap dollars through interbank markets and then relending it,” said one London-based banker. “In the next couple of years there could be bigger problems if China’s going to carry on devaluing.”

西方銀行還面臨着來自中國國內銀行的風險，後者借入了美元，再貸款給它們自己的客戶。“亞洲銀行非常習慣於通過銀行間市場借入廉價美元，然後轉貸出去，”一位駐倫敦的銀行家說，“未來兩年，如果人民幣繼續貶值的話，可能會出現更大的麻煩。”

But none of the big banks contacted by the Financial Times said that last Tuesday’s drop — the biggest fall since 1994 — and the subsequent confusion over the PBoC’s intentions was cause to reconsider their China plans. Many noted that big chunks of their loans in China are denominated in currencies other than the renminbi, and that translation losses from swings in exchange rates are something they had lived with for decades.

但英國《金融時報》聯絡的大銀行都表示，上週四人民幣的下跌——自1994年以來單日跌幅最大的一次——以及隨後產生的對中國央行意圖的困惑，並未促使它們重新思考在華計劃。許多銀行指出，它們在中國的大量貸款都不是以人民幣計價的，而匯率波動導致的匯兌損失是他們打了幾十年交道的東西。

“Teething troubles” are worth enduring, said Dominic Bunning, senior foreign-exchange strategist at HSBC, noting that China’s attempt to “create a two-way environment” for its currency was bound to cause some alarm, after a year and a half of range-bound trading. “The transition phase is always going to be volatile. [But] now pretty much everyone in the market is aware that the renminbi is not a one-way trade.”

匯豐(HSBC)高級外匯策略師多米尼克邦寧(Dominic Bunning)表示，“初期的煩惱”值得忍受。他指出，在一年半的區間交易之後，中國爲人民幣“創造雙向波動環境”的努力，註定會引起一些警惕。“過渡階段總是比較動盪的。（但）現在，市場上幾乎所有人都意識到，人民幣匯率不再單向變動。”

With combined exposures of more than $100bn to China, London-headquartered StanChart and HSBC have the keenest interest in Beijing’s new currency regime, followed by some big US banks such as Citi and JPMorgan.

總部設在倫敦的渣打銀行和匯豐在華敞口合計超過1000億美元，它們對北京方面的新匯率機制最感興趣，緊隨其後的是花旗和摩根大通等美國大銀行。

China accounted for about half of StanChart’s Asian revenue in the first half of 2015 and less than 10 per cent of HSBC’s, research from Nomura shows.

野村(Nomura)的研究表明，2015年上半年，中國佔到渣打銀行亞洲營收的約一半，佔匯豐亞洲營收的不到10%。