廢止現金 英國央行的奇葩提議

Central banks have never been so powerful, yet their ability to set the cost of borrowing, put limits on bank lending and poke their noses into every corner of the financial system is insufficient for some. Now the Bank of England’s chief economist wants to abolish the cash in your wallet and charge you for a digital equivalent.

央行從未這麼強大過，然而某些人嫌它們設定借款成本、限制銀行放貸以及干預金融體系各個角落的能力還不夠。現在英國央行(BoE)的首席經濟學家希望取締你的錢包裏的現金，代之以可向你實行負利率的數字貨幣。

Andy Haldane argues the world economy is entering a third leg of a long crisis: an emerging market disaster is following the Anglo-Saxon and eurozone crises of 2008 and 2011 respectively. In these circumstances he wants to be able to stimulate spending in Britain but says he cannot easily do so because interest rates are constrained not to fall below 0 per cent. He worries that if the BoE set a negative interest rate — in effect charging savers to hold their money in the hope they would spend instead — people would switch to cash, stick it under the bed and thereby get around the efforts to encourage more consumption.

安迪哈德恩(Andy Haldane)辯稱，全球經濟正進入一場曠日持久的危機的第三階段：繼2008年“盎格魯-撒克遜”(Anglo-Saxon)危機和2011年歐元區危機之後，如今輪到新興市場發生災難。在這樣的背景下，他希望能夠刺激英國支出，但他表示，這麼做並不容易，因爲利率受到制約，通常不能降至負數。他擔心，如果英國央行設定一個負利率——實際上就是對存錢的儲戶收費，寄望於他們能夠轉而把錢花掉——人們將轉向持有現金，把它們放在牀底下，從而讓鼓勵更多消費的努力落空。

Attach a gloomy assessment of the efficacy of quantitative easing and other means of stimulating spending, and his answer is to get rid of cash and replace it with a digital wallet on which negative interest rates can be charged.

再加上對量化寬鬆和其他刺激支出舉措效果的悲觀評估，他的解決辦法是消滅現金，代之以數字錢包，這樣就可以實行負利率了。

The case might be logical, but that is not a sufficient condition for public policy. Mr Haldane thinks banning cash and switching to digital money would be a “great technological leap forward” but his words have more than an unfortunate rhetorical echo of Maoist China. It is illiberal and prioritises a skewed view of theory over public acceptability.

這樣的推論可能合乎邏輯，但那不是公共政策的充分條件。哈德恩認爲，禁止現金，改用數字貨幣將是“偉大的技術大躍進”，但這種言論不只是令人遺憾地聯想到毛澤東時代的中國，而且限制自由，把某種奇葩理論置於公衆接受度之上。

For the vast majority of the time when interest rates are positive, Mr Haldane’s plans are simply unnecessary. He would ban the use of paper currency and coinage that has been used for centuries in pursuit of a theoretical contingency. Some 48 per cent of all transactions in the UK use cash, defying regular predictions of its demise and making it by far the most popular payment method. No wonder wiser heads at the BoE, such as Victoria Cleland, the chief cashier, say cash is here to stay.

在利率爲正的絕大部分時間裏，哈德恩的計劃完全沒有必要。他爲了實行理論上的應急方案，禁止已使用數個世紀的紙幣和硬幣。在英國的所有交易中，約48%是現金交易，這意味着現金是遙遙領先的最受歡迎的支付方式，也讓不時冒出的預測現金消亡的論調不攻自破。難怪英國央行總出納維多利亞克萊蘭(Victoria Cleland)等比較明智的人士表示，現金將繼續存在。

At times when interest rate rates would ideally fall below zero, the central bank still has more tools in its armoury than Mr Haldane cares to consider. Nordic countries have shown that significantly negative rates can be imposed on bank deposits without the feared shift towards people hoarding cash under mattresses, so there is already more room for conventional monetary policy to work. In addition, it is clear that in the event of a slump a broad-based tax cut financed by central bank purchases of the resulting public debt would provide the necessary stimulus.

即便在利率最好降至負數的情況下，英國央行可動用的工具仍比哈德恩操心考慮的要多。北歐國家的經驗表明，可以對銀行存款實行遠低於零的負利率，而不用擔心人們會把現金藏在牀墊下，因此常規貨幣政策已經擁有更大的用武之地。此外，在經濟低迷的情況下，全面減稅——由央行通過購買由此導致的公共債務來買單——顯然將提供必要的刺激。

Mr Haldane asserts that such action would send monetary credibility “down the most slippery of slopes”. This fear is far from well grounded; and, as Professor Simon Wren Lewis of Oxford observes, ruling out monetary financing of tax reductions for fear they might be popular is hardly a sensible position for an unelected central banker.

哈德恩斷言，此類舉措將讓貨幣政策的可信度“滑下最陡的斜坡”。這種擔憂毫無根據；正如牛津大學(Oxford)教授西蒙雷恩-劉易斯(Simon Wren-Lewis)所言，對一個未經選舉上任的央行行長來說，由於擔心受歡迎而排除由貨幣主管當局爲減稅買單，很難說是一種明智的立場。

Some argue there would be beneficial side effects from abolishing notes and coins through the regularisation of illegal activities. Really? What is the more likely response of a drug dealer and client who mutually want to conduct a trade: “Let me sell you the dope on a traceable payment system”; or “Let’s use euros instead”? Cash would have to be abolished everywhere and the BoE does not have those powers, thankfully.

一些人辯稱，取締鈔票和硬幣可帶來監管非法活動的有益副作用。果真如此嗎？毒品販子和癮君子全都想進行交易，他們更有可能的迴應是：“讓我通過一個可追溯的支付系統賣給你毒品；”或者是“我們使用歐元吧？”各地都將不得不廢止現金，謝天謝地，英國央行沒有那麼大的權力。

The anonymity of cash helps to free people from their governments and some criminality is a price worth paying for liberty, as professors Stephen Cecchetti and Kermit Schoenholtz observe. It is better if the government creates trusted, anonymous notes and coins rather than some private agent.

正如史蒂芬切凱蒂(Stephen Cecchetti)教授和克米特舍恩霍爾茨(Kermit Schoenholtz)教授所指出的，現金的匿名性有助於人們擺脫政府的監視；爲了自由，存在一些犯罪活動是值得付出的代價。由政府（而非某種私人機構）創造值得信任的匿名鈔票和硬幣是更好的安排。

Mr Haldane’s proposal to ban cash has all the hallmarks of a public official confusing what is convenient for the central bank with what is in the public interest. Cash is unlikely to die a natural death — and, until it does, long may it live.

有些公共官員會混淆什麼是適合央行的和什麼是符合公共利益的，哈德恩廢除現金的提議符合這種官員的特徵。現金不太可能自然消亡；在它最終消亡之前，祝願它長期存在。