中國"新絲綢之路"開發項目面臨諸多挑戰

In October 2012, Wang Jisi – professor at Beijing University – urged China to re-open its ancient commercial trade routes with the West. In 2013, China's President, Xi Jinping proposed to its neighbors the “One Road, One Belt” initiative. China's aim? To achieve $2.5tn in additional annual trade with the nations along the proposed routes over the next 10 years.

2012年10月，北京大學教授王輯思敦促中國政府重新打通連通西方的古老商業貿易路線。2013年，中國國家主席習近平向多個鄰國提出了“一帶一路”(One Road, One Belt)計劃。中國的目標是什麼？在未來10年內實現與沿線國家增加2.5萬億美元的年度貿易額。

What is the current state of the project and how likely is it to succeed?

該項目眼下處於何種狀態？成功的可能性有多大？

The private sector, for one, has started reinforcing the connectivity between the East and the West. In 2011, supply chain operator DB Schenker started weekly trains between China and Germany. It carried 40,000 TEU containers (20 foot equivalent unit) from 2012 to 2014.

民營部門已開始加強東西方聯繫。2011年，供應鏈運營商德鐵信可(DB Schenker)在中國和德國之間開通了每週運行的列車。2012年至2014年，這條路線的貨運總量達到4萬標準集裝箱（20英尺）。

In 2015, the Port of Rotterdam welcomed its first containers by rail from China. This route shortens the delivery time of goods from around 60 days by sea to about 14 days by land. In the future, trains from Chongqing in China to Duisburg in Germany transiting 10,800 km (6,700 miles) are expected to reduce delivery time to 10 days. Companies such as Hewlett Packard are connecting European customers with the factories in China through the new route. Returning containers are filled, for example, with western luxury cars.

2015年，荷蘭鹿特丹港迎來了第一批經由鐵路運抵的中國集裝箱。這一陸上路線開通後，海路大約60天的貨運時間被縮短至約14天。未來，從中國重慶通往德國杜伊斯堡、行程1.08萬公里（合6700英里）的列車，預計將把貨運時間縮短至10天。惠普(HP)等公司已經利用新路線從中國工廠向歐洲客戶發貨。回程的集裝箱有時裝滿了西方的豪華車。

The result is that the modern caravan has started rolling. Thus, the “New Silk Road”development project – which embraces an area that is home to about 70 per cent of the world's population, produces about 55 per cent of global GDP and has about 75 per cent of known energy reserves – has been taken its first steps. Of course, challenges remain.

結果是，現代版的“大篷車”已行駛起來。也就是說，“新絲綢之路”開發項目——其覆蓋的疆域擁有世界約70%的人口，國內生產總值(GDP)的全球佔比約爲55%，已探明能源儲量的全球佔比約爲75%——已邁出了最初的幾步。當然，還有諸多挑戰。

The ambition requires efficient and effective collaboration between the 40 countries located alongside the historic silk routes, both those that went overland from China to Europe and those that went by sea. China has taken the initiative to start aligning the participants, signing partnership agreements related to the initiative from 2013 onward with Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus.

這一宏大計劃要求歷史性的絲綢之路沿線的40個國家之間開展高效率和有效的協作，不但包括從中國經由陸路抵達歐洲的路線，而且包括海上交通路線。中國已採取主動，開始對接參與者，從2013年開始與俄羅斯、哈薩克斯坦和白俄羅斯簽署了與新絲綢之路有關的合作協議。

The project requires significant funding – an estimated $8tn between 2010 and 2020 alone. The China government announced several commitments including a $40bn Silk Road Fund to be focused on projects in the Central Asia region, a $50bn Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and a $10bn BRICS-led New Development Bank. Some sources suggest that Beijing is prepared to support the projects to the tune of between $160bn to $300bn. The China Development Bank and the Maritime Silk Road Bank are set to reinforce such support.

新絲綢之路項目需要大量資金投入，僅2010年至2020年之間就需要投入大約8萬億美元。中國政府已宣佈多項承諾，包括專注於中亞地區項目的400億美元的絲路基金(Silk Road Fund)、500億美元的亞洲基礎設施投資銀行（Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank，簡稱亞投行），以及100億美元的金磚國家新開發銀行(New Development Bank)。有些消息人士暗示，中國政府準備投入1600億至3000億美元支持這些項目。中國國家開發銀行(CDB)和海上絲綢之路銀行(Maritime Silk Road Bank)將加強這些支持。

The New Silk Road project needs to overcome technical and regulatory challenges. The trains require at least two changes of gauge – as China and Europe use the standard of 1435 mm gauge while Belarus, Russia, Mongolia and Kazakhstan use the broad gauge of 1520 mm. Many borders need to be crossed. Customs clearance processes need to be standardised – advanced information technology and digitisation might help. Ideally, the New Silk Road will become a free-trade corridor.

新絲綢之路項目需要克服技術與監管挑戰。列車需要至少兩次變軌，因爲中國和歐洲的鐵軌寬度均爲1435毫米，而白俄羅斯、俄羅斯、蒙古和哈薩克斯坦的鐵軌寬度爲1520毫米。列車沿途要穿越多國邊境。通關程序需要標準化——先進信息技術和數字化或許有所幫助。在理想情況下，新絲綢之路將成爲一條自由貿易走廊。

Each country needs to understand what to contribute, such as what infrastructure and policies to launch, how to finance the initiative and what benefits to be expected from the investments. A well-designed business model which features a plan outlining how the Silk Road will work is critical to ensure that additional value – new businesses, new industries and new jobs – is created along the entire value chain and not merely at both ends (China and Europe).

每個國家都需要明白自己應作出何種貢獻（比如推出何種基礎設施與政策），如何融資，以及預計會從這些投資項目獲得哪些效益。精心設計的商業模式，包括一份勾勒出絲綢之路將如何運作的方案，對於確保沿着整條價值鏈（而不僅僅在中國和歐洲這兩端）創造附加價值——新企業、新產業和新就業崗位——來說是至關重要的。

Imbalances in economic strength and the flows of goods – China exports are traditionally stronger than those of most of its trading partners – and seasonality like slow months and peaks need to be factored in the model.

經濟實力和產品流動上的失衡——傳統上，中國的出口強於大多數貿易伙伴——以及淡季和旺季等季節性因素需要體現在商業模式中。

The success of the New Silk Road depends as well on clear governance rules and mechanisms. This includes the answer to the question of whether this project requires an independent organisation or can handle strategic decision-making and dispute resolution in a bilateral or multilateral way.

新絲綢之路的成功也有賴於清晰的治理規則與機制。這包括回答一個問題：該項目是需要成立一個獨立機構、還是以雙邊或多邊方式來進行戰略決策和爭議解決？

The incentive to get this right is huge. The participating countries will be able to tap in a new source of growth and need to balance spending with progress. Currently, China is carrying the lion share of the investment. In return, Asia's leading economy expects significant stimulus for its market and favourable ties with countries along the belt.

解決好這個問題的動力是巨大的。參與國將能夠獲得新的增長源頭，同時需要在支出與進展之間做好平衡。目前，中國拿出了大部分投資。作爲回報，亞洲領先經濟體期待其市場得到重大刺激，並與絲綢之路沿線國家打造有利的關係。

The private sector will leverage the potential and increase investments proportional with the improvements in infrastructure and processes. If successful, the reboot of the ancient Silk Road will without doubt bring additional growth opportunities to business and nations, and provide also better access to no less than 66 per cent of the world's middle class, which is expected to live in China by 2030.

民營行業將挖掘潛力，隨着基礎設施和流程的改善，成比例地增加投資。如果取得成功，古老絲綢之路的重啓無疑將爲沿線國家及其企業帶來額外的增長機遇，並讓它們更好地接觸到世界中產人口的66%（2030年中國中產階層人口預計在世界中產總數中所佔比例）。