金融學教授朱寧談中國經濟的剛性泡沫

In his new book, “China’s Guaranteed Bubble,” Ning Zhu, a professor at the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance, dissects the risks accumulating in China’s economy, especially in its financial sector. In an interview, he explained his argument that the Chinese government’s implicit guarantees to banks, state-owned corporations, local governments and investment areas such as the housing and stock markets have encouraged levels of leverage that are increasingly hazardous as the country’s economy slows.

上海交通大學高級金融學院教授朱寧在其新書《剛性泡沫——中國經濟爲何進退兩難》（英文名"China's Guaranteed Bubble"）中，剖析了中國經濟、特別是金融行業的風險積累。他在一次採訪中解釋剛性泡沫時說，中國政府爲銀行、國有企業、地方政府，以及諸如樓市和股市等投資領域提供的隱性擔保，鼓勵了高槓杆率，其危險性隨着經濟增長放緩而越來越大。

Q. What do you mean by a “guaranteed bubble”?

問：你書名中的“剛性泡沫”是什麼意思？

A. There are two major messages in the title. First, that well-intended guarantees eventually lead to a bubble. It’s conceivable that if investors believe their investment returns are guaranteed, they will use ways, such as increasing leverage or opaque financial innovations, to take greater risks, leading to overspeculation and a bubble in asset prices.

答：新書名包含兩大信息。首先，出於好心的擔保最終導致泡沫。可以想象，如果投資者相信他們的投資收益得到擔保的話，他們會用諸如增加槓桿率或不透明的金融創新等方式來承擔更大的風險，從而導致過度投機和資產價格泡沫。

Second, without meaningful structural reform in the Chinese economy and financial sector, what’s been going on in the past few years will eventually lead to a bubble. A bubble and subsequent bust are not a matter of whether, but when. Overspeculation leads to poor investments, and the debt overhang becomes so big that it eventually causes the bubble to burst. I hope this book will serve as a wake-up call, because the window for defusing this time bomb is closing, given how fast debt has increased in the past few years.

第二，中國經濟和金融行業不做出有意義的結構性改革的話，過去幾年中發生的事情將最終導致泡沫。泡沫以及隨之而來的破裂，不是是否發生的問題，而是什麼時候發生的問題。過度投機導致低質量的投資，債務積壓越來越大，最終導致泡沫破裂。我希望這本書的作用是敲響警鐘，考慮到過去幾年中債務增長速度之快，拆除這個定時炸彈的機會窗口正在關閉。

Interestingly, some readers in China complained about the title. Some thought I meant that the bubble is guaranteed by the government and therefore will never burst. There are a lot of people scared of the bubble bursting, but just as many who believe we’re already in a bubble and are waiting for the bubble to burst to snap up assets.

有意思的是，一些中國讀者對書的英文名有意見。有些人認爲，我的意思是，泡沫是由政府擔保的，因此永遠不會破裂。很多人害怕泡沫破裂，但也有同樣多的人認爲我們已經處在一個泡沫之中，他們正在等待泡沫破裂後搶購資產。

Q. Are you among the economists who believe a hard landing is inevitable?

問：你是相信硬着陸不可避免的那類經濟學家嗎？

A. No. I tend to think that we are at a crossroads where what we do now may have profound, even irreversible, influences on the Chinese economy. There are certainly many short-term challenges, such as slowing growth, increasing unemployment and disappointing capital market performance. However, if policy makers decide to sacrifice long-term growth to solve short-term problems, we’ll be facing even greater problems. In some sense, the challenges that China’s economy faces now are consequences of the 2009, 4 trillion renminbi [$586 billion] stimulus package and accompanying credit expansion.

答：不是。我傾向於認爲，我們正處在一個十字路口上，我們現在的所做所爲，可能對中國經濟產生深刻、甚至是不可逆轉的影響。當然，目前有許多短期的挑戰，比如經濟增長放緩、失業率上升、資本市場表現令人失望等等。但是，如果政策制定者用犧牲長期增長的決定來解決短期問題的話，我們將面臨更大的問題。從某種意義上來說，中國經濟目前面臨的挑戰，是2009年4萬億經濟刺激、以及相應的信貸擴張的後果。

So no, I don’t think it’s inevitable, as long as China engages in active reform. However, time is running out. With ballooning debt and slowing growth, the Chinese government will have fewer deployable resources going forward. Given the already high valuations in the stock market and housing market, it’s not clear how far one can push the bubble without it bursting and having a catastrophic impact on China and the global economy. Now that China shoulders a large portion of global economic growth, whatever happens in China will have far-reaching implications for the rest of the world.

所以說，不，我不認爲硬着陸不可避免，但前提是中國進行積極的改革。但是，時間已經不多了。債務在膨脹，經濟增長在放緩，中國政府未來可部署的資源將會更少。鑑於股市和房市的估值已經很高，不清楚還有多大餘地能推動泡沫增長而讓其不破裂，不至於給中國乃至全球經濟帶來災難性影響。如今，中國肩負着全球經濟增長重任的很大一部分，中國無論發生什麼事情，都將會對世界其他地區產生深遠影響。

Q. What should the Chinese government do to address the imbalances and risks you describe?

問：中國政府應該怎麼做，來緩解你所說的失衡問題和風險？

A. I listed three guarantees the government provides to the economy: a policy guarantee, capital guarantee and investment guarantee. Each one encourages people to invest and speculate. Many people in China buy real estate because they believe that the government will not let housing prices fall. Similarly, many Chinese who don’t know much about investments poured money into the stock market, because they believed the government would ensure that the stock market rose.

答：我認爲政府爲經濟提供了三項擔保：政策擔保、資金擔保和投資擔保。全部都是鼓勵人們投資和投機的。很多中國人購買不動產，因爲他們相信政府不會讓房價下跌。同樣地，很多不太懂股市的中國人將大筆資金投入股市，因爲他們相信，政府會保證股市的上漲。

To diffuse the risks, the government has to phase out its guarantees. It should stop providing guarantees for economic growth and investment performance and let the market play a maximum role in allocating resources.

爲了分散風險，政府必須退出這種擔保。它不應該再爲經濟增長和投資業績打包票，而是讓市場在資源配置中發揮最大作用。

Q. What’s your view of the policy proposals that have come out from the National People’s Congress?

問：你對全國人大上提出的政策建議有何看法？

A. They’re pointing in the right direction. However, it’s worth pointing out that it’s the implementation of the policies that will define China’s future. State-owned enterprise reform, fiscal and taxation reform and financial reform have become key reform areas in almost all N.P.C. policies of the past several years. However, because of the dedication to short-term economic growth, many of the necessary reforms have been put on hold or even reversed.

答：它們的方向是正確的。但是值得指出的是，塑造中國未來的是政策的實施。在過去幾年的幾乎所有人大政策中，國有企業改革、財稅改革和金融改革都已是關鍵改革領域。但是，由於着眼於短期的經濟增長，很多必要的改革已被擱置，甚至遭到逆轉。

Q. What reactions have you received from readers of the Chinese edition?

問：中文版讀者有怎樣反應？

A. Somewhat surprisingly, it’s been well received not only among ordinary readers, but also government officials. I’ve given speeches at government agencies, and the audience has agreed with me on the urgent need for further reforms. There has also been a lot of interest from banks and shadow-banking companies. They feel that the “implicit guarantees” that have propelled their industries are being phased out and are preparing for the transition.

答：反響不錯，有些意外的是這裏面不只有普通讀者，還有政府官員。我在政府機關做演講，聽衆贊成我的看法，也覺得迫切需要進一步改革。而且銀行和“影子銀行”公司也有很大興趣。他們覺得，推動他們行業發展的“隱性擔保”正在退出，爲轉型做準備。

I’d like to add that this challenge is not unique to China. In the February G-20 central banker and finance minister summit meeting, leaders from major economies agreed to use more active fiscal policies to boost global economic growth. We may have reached a point, at least in some major economies, where leaders are setting unrealistic objectives for economic growth. I think global leaders need to realize that high economic growth is very difficult to achieve after a certain threshold, and can in fact cause much unwarranted risk for future generations.

我想補充一點，這個挑戰並非是中國獨有的。在今年2月的G20央行行長和財長峯會上，主要經濟體的領導人都同意採用更積極的財政政策來推動全球經濟增長。我們可能已經達到了一個階段，至少在一些主要的經濟體，領導人設定的經濟增長目標不切實際。我認爲，全球領導者需要認識到，在達到某個閾值之後，經濟高速增長是非常困難的，而且真的有可能給子孫後代帶來太多不必要的風險。