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今年第三季度中國GDP增長6.7%

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今年第三季度中國GDP增長6.7%

The Chinese economy expanded at an annual rate of 6.7 per cent in the third quarter of 2016, putting it firmly on track to meet the government’s full-year target of at least 6.5 per cent growth.

中國經濟在今年第三季度同比增長了6.7%,有很大把握實現政府定下的全年增長目標,即全年增長不低於6.5%。

But concerns are mounting that the rate could fall as officials try to cool an overheated property sector, a traditional motor of the country’s economy.

但是,隨着官員們試圖爲過熱的房地產業(中國經濟傳統的引擎之一)降溫,人們越來越擔心經濟增速會下滑。

This month more than 20 urban governments across China introduced measures to restrain property prices, which over the past year have increased by as much as 25 per cent in cities such as Beijing and Shanghai.

本月,中國各地20多座城市的政府出臺了抑制房價的措施。過去一年,北京和上海等城市的房價漲幅最高達25%。

Many analysts believe the sector ultimately accounts for more than half of all investment, after factoring in related demand for everything from concrete to household goods.

許多分析師認爲,若把從混凝土到家居用品等相關需求考慮在內,房地產業投資最終佔到總投資額的一半以上。

Real estate investment grew at 7.1 per cent in the year to September. Two other critical growth engines, the services sector and infrastructure investment, rose 7.6 per cent and 19.4 per cent respectively over the same period.

今年頭三個季度,房地產投資增長了7.1%,另外兩個關鍵增長引擎——服務業和基礎設施投資——分別增長了7.6%和19.4%。

China’s gross domestic product grew 6.7 per cent in both the first and second quarters of the year, defying fears of a much sharper slowdown after turmoil on the country’s currency and stock markets dented global confidence in Beijing’s macroeconomic management.

今年第一季度和第二季度,中國國內生產總值(GDP)的增速都是6.7%,儘管在匯市和股市動盪削弱了國際社會對中國政府宏觀經濟管理的信心之後,人們曾擔心增長的減速要厲害得多。

Earlier this year economic planners set a target range for full-year economic growth of 6.5-7 per cent.

今年早些時候,經濟規劃者將全年經濟增長目標區間設定爲6.5%至7%。

This signalled their willingness to tolerate a slower pace of expansion than the 6.9 per cent recorded in 2015 — the lowest annual figure in almost a quarter century.

這表明,他們願意容忍比2015年的6.9%還要低的增速——6.9%是中國近四分之一個世紀以來的最低年經濟增速。

The annual growth rate dipped as low as 6.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2009 as China was buffeted by the global financial crisis.

受全球金融危機衝擊,2009年第一季度中國經濟同比增速降至6.2%。

That slowdown was the catalyst for a Rmb4tn government stimulus programme that boosted global demand at a critical time but also led to overinvestment in a number of heavy industries, such as coal and steel, and contributed to a sharp rise in corporate debt levels.

那次放緩成了政府出臺4萬億元人民幣刺激計劃的催化劑。刺激計劃在緊要時刻提振了全球需求,但也導致了一些重工業(如煤炭和鋼鐵)的過度投資,並推動企業債務水平急劇上升。

Last week China’s State Council, headed by Premier Li Keqiang, approved a controversial debt-for-equity programme and other measures aimed at reducing corporate indebtedness.

上週,李克強總理領導下的中國國務院批准了一項有爭議的債轉股計劃,以及其他旨在降低企業債務水平的措施。

Chinese companies have accumulated $18tn in debt, equivalent to about 170 per cent of GDP.

中國企業累積了18萬億美元債務,約相當於GDP的170%。

The International Monetary Fund, which has repeatedly warned Beijing about corporate debt levels, has projected that China’s economy will expand 6.6 per cent this year and 6.2 per cent in 2017.

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)多次提醒北京方面關注企業債務水平。該組織預計,今明兩年中國經濟增速將分別爲6.6%和6.2%。

Meanwhile, deflationary pressures are continuing to ease.

另一方面,中國的通縮壓力繼續緩解。

Last week the National Bureau of Statistics reported that producer prices had increased on an annual basis for the first time in more than four years.

上週中國國家統計局報告稱,工業生產者出廠價格(PPI)四年多來首次出現同比上漲。

This represented a dramatic turnround from late 2015, when year-on-year producer price deflation was running at almost 6 per cent, and will relieve the pressure that has been building on China’s heavy industries.

這反映出,自2015年末以來局面發生了顯著好轉(2015年12月,PPI同比下降近6%),中國重工業一直以來承受的壓力將得到緩解。

The Chinese government, however, says it remains committed to reducing overcapacity in a range of heavy industries.

不過,中國政府表示,它仍致力於削減多個重工行業的過剩產能。

Last week,a spokesman for the National Development and Reform Commission said that the government was on track to reduce capacity in the country’s steel industry by 45m tonnes this year.

上週,中國國家發改委發言人表示,今年政府會在鋼鐵業削減4500萬噸的產能。

The government is also targeting a 20 per cent reduction in coal capacity — a goal that could be made more difficult by a recent surge in thermal coal prices.

中國政府還定下了在煤炭行業減少20%產能的目標——近期動力煤價格大漲可能會增加實現這一目標的難度。