勒龐能促成法國退歐嗎

A victory by far-right leader Marine Le Pen in the French elections in May is seen by many investors as potentially fatal for the euro and even the EU itself.

在許多投資者看來，如果極右翼領導人馬琳?勒龐(Marine Le Pen)在5月的法國選舉中獲勝，對歐元、甚至歐盟(EU)而言都可能是致命的。

While polls suggest she will lose the election in the second round, her support has been inching up, leading to a spike in French bond yields as investors sell debt.

儘管民意測驗顯示，她將在第二輪投票中落敗，但她的支持率一直節節上升，導致投資者在拋售債券、法國債券收益率飆升。

Market concerns centre on fears that, if elected, she would push ahead with her economic campaign promises: drastically renegotiating France’s membership of the EU, including pulling out of the euro, and then holding a referendum on the new relationship.

市場人士的主要擔憂是，如果勒龐在選舉中獲勝，她將落實自己在經濟方面的競選承諾：徹底就法國的歐盟成員國身份進行重新談判，包括退出歐元區，然後就法國與歐盟的新關係舉行全民公投。

However, according to economists, political scientists and constitutional experts, implementing these promises could prove difficult.

然而，經濟學家、政治學家和憲法專家表示，這些承諾履行起來可能很困難。

Could Le Pen radically reform the EU from the inside?

勒龐可能從內部對歐盟進行徹底改革嗎？

National Front officials insist France is a top-tier EU member and cannot be ignored. It would be possible to secure reforms to the euro, free movement of people, or primacy of EU law.

國民陣線(National Front)官員們堅稱，法國是歐盟的最重要成員國之一，不可以被忽視。促成針對歐元、人員自由流動或者歐盟法律至高無上地位的改革，是有可能辦到的。

“France is a founding member — we are not like the UK or Greece. When we stamp our feet, people are going to listen,” said one senior party figure.

“法國是歐盟的創始成員國——我們跟英國或希臘不一樣。當我們跺腳時，人們會聽我們說話，”一名國民陣線重要人物表示。

Others scoff at the idea she would succeed in fundamentally changing France’s relationship with the EU. They point to the failure of the UK to win any meaningful reforms before a Brexit vote and to the radical nature of FN demands — the end of the common currency and free movement of people.

也有人對認爲勒龐將成功地從根本上改變法國與歐盟關係的想法嗤之以鼻。他們指出，英國在退歐投票前就未能爭取到對歐盟的任何有意義的改革；他們還指出，國民陣線的要求帶有激進性——他們要求終結共同貨幣，中止人員自由流動。

Since France’s EU partners are unlikely to agree to dismantle the bloc, any referendum would be likely to become a plebiscite on leaving the EU.

鑑於法國在歐盟的夥伴國不大可能同意解散這一集團，任何全民公決都有可能成爲是否退出歐盟的投票。

Could Ms Le Pen hold a referendum on ‘Frexit’?

勒龐能夠舉行一場“法國退歐”全民公投嗎？

It is not impossible, but it is unlikely.

不是沒有可能，但可能性不太大。

France has a written constitution that states that “the Republic is part of the European Union”. So a “Frexit” would require a constitutional change.

法國有一份成文憲法，其中規定，“法蘭西共和國是歐盟的一部分”。所以，“法國退歐”將需要修改憲法。

Under Article 89, any constitutional change needs to be proposed by the government, not the president. Then it has to be approved by both the upper and the lower houses and then either by public vote in a referendum or by a majority of 60 per cent of Congress.

根據法國憲法第89條，修憲需要由政府、而不是總統來提議。然後，修憲必須得到議會上院和下院的批准，接下來要麼由公民投票通過，要麼以六成多數獲得議會通過。

This means that, if she wanted to call a referendum, a President Le Pen would need a majority in the June legislative elections. “She would need a huge majority,” said Philippe Cossalter, a law professor at Saarlandes University.

這意味着，如果當上總統後的勒龐想召集一次全民公投，那麼她將需要在6月的立法選舉中贏得多數席位。“她將需要贏得過半席位，”薩爾大學(Saarlandes University)法學教授菲利普?科撒勒特(Philippe Cossalter)說。

The FN needs to win 289 out of 577 parliamentary seats in June for a majority, up from two at the moment. The party only has two seats in the 348-seat Senate, where elections for half the chamber are due in September.

國民陣線需要在6月的立法選舉中贏得國民議會全部577個席位中的289個才能過半數，目前該黨僅擁有兩個席位。該黨目前在348席的參議院裏僅擁有兩個席位，今年9月，參議院將舉行半數議員的換屆選舉。

“A Le Pen presidency without a majority in the house would be unlikely to result in a referendum on the EU,” said Guillaume Menuet, an economist a Citigroup. He argues that the best-case scenario for the FN is winning 100 seats in parliament.

“如果勒龐當選總統，卻未在議會取得多數席位，那麼最終就不大可能舉行法國退歐公投，”花旗集團(Citigroup)經濟學家紀堯姆?默尼埃(Guillaume Menuet)說。他認爲，國民陣線最理想的結果也不過是在國民議會贏得100個席位。

Is there a way round this?

是否有辦法繞開這個障礙？

Under Article 11 of the French constitution, the president can unilaterally call a referendum, although — in theory — such a vote cannot change the constitution. In 1962, however, Charles de Gaulle succeeded in changing the constitution after invoking a referendum under Article 11.

法國憲法第11條規定，總統可以單方面召集全民公決，不過——在理論上——這一投票不能更改憲法。然而，1962年，查爾斯?戴高樂(Charles de Gaulle)成功地依據第11條召集全民公決，更改了憲法。

Senior FN officials have said that Ms Le Pen would try to do the same thing. But Article 11 has since been modified by Article 61, requiring a sign-off by the constitutional court before a vote takes place. According to Bruno Cavalier, chief economist at Oddo, Ms Le Pen would find herself “in front of the French constitutional courts” if she tried to use Article 11. The courts would be likely to block such an action, he said.

國民陣線高級官員表示，勒龐將努力如法炮製。但後來，憲法第61條對第11條進行了修訂，要求全民公決必須事先獲得憲法法院的批准。投行奧多(Oddo)首席經濟學家布魯諾?卡瓦利耶(Bruno Cavalier)表示，如果勒龐想使用第11條的話，她將發現自己“面對法國的憲法法院”。他說，憲法法院可能會阻止這種做法。

Any other snags?

還有其他障礙嗎？

Even if Ms Le Pen could organise a vote, polls suggest that the French people do not want to leave the euro. A Eurobarometer poll in October found that 53 per cent of people thought that the euro was a “good thing for their country” compared with 37 per cent who thought it was a “bad thing”.

即便勒龐能夠組織起來一場投票，民意調查顯示，法國民衆並不想退出歐元區。去年10月歐洲民意調查中心(Eurobarometer)進行的一次民調發現，53%的人認爲歐元“有利於法國”，而認爲歐元對法國“有害”的人只佔37%。

Since then, Ms Le Pen has tried to soften the message. She has suggested a “common currency” — similar in structure to the European Currency Unit, or Ecu, that preceded the euro — that would exist in parallel with the franc. However, this would still be tantamount to the end of monetary union.

自那以來，勒龐開始嘗試軟化語氣。她提議推出一種與法郎並存的“共同貨幣”——在結構上類似於歐元之前的歐洲貨幣單位(Ecu)。然而，這將仍相當於終結歐洲貨幣聯盟。

Some analysts think financial markets will go into a tailspin if Ms Le Pen is elected, regardless of the nuances of French constitutional law.

有些分析師認爲，只要勒龐在選舉中獲勝，金融市場就將陷入混亂，這一結果不會因法國憲法的細節而改變。

Harvinder Sian, an analyst at Citi, said: “If she wins, the market will go into panic mode,” prompting an “existential crisis” for the EU and potential “leakage of liquidity” from the banks.

花旗分析師哈文德?希安(Harvinder Sian)表示，“如果她獲勝，市場將進入恐慌模式”，使歐盟面臨一場“關係生死存亡的危機”，並可能導致各銀行“流動性漏出”。

If she lost a referendum, what happens?

如果她在全民公決中失敗，會發生什麼？

Ms Le Pen has said she would resign if she lost an EU referendum. Leaving the euro is central to her economic policy. She argues that a devalued franc would restore the competitiveness of French workers. EU rules would also prevent her from implementing many of her other economic policies, which include “intelligent protectionism” and giving preference to French workers over foreign ones.

勒龐表示，如果在退歐公投中失敗，她將辭職。退出歐元區是她的經濟政策的核心內容。她主張，貶值的法郎將恢復法國工人的競爭力。歐盟規則也將妨礙她執行她的許多其他經濟政策，其中包括“聰明的保護主義”，還有在法國工人和外國工人中優先前者。

What about the rest of her domestic programme?

她其餘的國內政策計劃呢？

The French constitution gives significant powers to the president, particularly in foreign policy and defence. But for the day-to-day business of running the country, the vast majority of decisions by a French president need parliamentary approval.

法國憲法授予總統重大的權力，尤其在對外政策和防務方面。但在國家的日常治理方面，法國總統的絕大部分決定都需要得到國民議會的批准。

Again, her probable lack of a parliamentary majority would make it difficult to push through her wider agenda — which includes slashing the number of immigrants and beefing up the police force.

她很可能拿不到國民議會多數席位，這一點將再次使她很難推進自己的整個議程——包括減少移民和加強警力。

There have been three occasions in France’s postwar history where voters chose a parliament that opposed the president, under Fran?ois Mitterrand and Jacques Chirac. Most of these “cohabitations” did not last long.

在戰後法國曆史中，選民有三次選出了與總統對立的國民議會——在弗朗索瓦?密特朗(Fran?ois Mitterrand)和雅克?希拉剋(Jacques Chirac)當總統的時候。這些“共治”大多不持久。

A prime minister can fall back on article 49:3, used several times by the current government to push through reform packages without parliament’s approval. But that would also be seen a symbol of failure. Ms Le Pen last year said that the use of 49:3 was an “admission of weakness”.

政府總理可以訴諸憲法第49條第3段的規定，現任法國政府已多次利用該規定，在未得到國民議會批准的情況下推進改革計劃。但是，這也將被視爲失敗的標誌。勒龐去年表示，利用該規定是“承認軟弱”。