中日爭奪亞洲貿易協定控制權

The contest to shape a massive Asian trade pact has stepped up a gear as China and Japan push different visions of a deal that would cover almost half the world’s population and a third of its economic output.

各方爭相塑造大型亞洲貿易協定的努力已經升級，中國和日本正在力推不同的協定願景，該協定將覆蓋全球近半數人口和三分之一經濟產出。

China is pushing for a rapid conclusion to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, with a “low-quality” deal mainly focused on lowering tariffs between the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and its neighbours.

中國正在推動以一項聚焦於降低東盟(ASEAN)與其鄰國間關稅的“低品質”協議，來儘快達成《區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定》（Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership，簡稱RCEP）。

But officials in Japan and Asean insist RCEP should not be Chinese-led. Beijing wants to cast itself as a defender of global free trade for political reasons, they say, after the US quit another huge deal, the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Tokyo and Canberra want a high-quality RCEP deal covering services and investment — half hoping this will bring the US back to the TPP table.

但日本和東盟的官員卻堅持認爲RCEP不應由中國人牽頭。這些官員表示，在美國退出另一項大型協定——《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》（Trans-Pacific Partnership，簡稱TPP）——之後，出於政治原因，中國想把自身塑造爲全球自由貿易的捍衛者。東京和堪培拉方面想要的是一項覆蓋服務業和投資的高品質RCEP協定，它們在一定程度上希望這會把美國拉回TPP談判桌前。

The result is a tug of war, with Japan and Australia on one side and China on the other. The prize is a deal that could reshape global trade, economically integrating the world’s most populous region and making its supply chains even more competitive, with big consequences for US strategy and business in the region. “In the past few years, people were looking at TPP,” says one Japanese negotiator. “Now this is the largest free trade negotiation that’s alive and kicking.”

其結果就是一場拔河比賽，日本和澳大利亞在一邊，中國在另一邊。比賽的獎品是一項可能會重塑全球貿易、整合世界人口最多地區的經濟並讓該地區的供應鏈更具競爭力、對美國在該地區的戰略和生意造成重大影響的協定。“過去幾年，人們都盯着TPP，”日本的一名談判代表稱，“現在，這纔是最大的、活力十足的自由貿易談判。”

How that negotiation fits in will be high on the agenda at a meeting in Chile this week, where TPP member economies, China and others are gathering to discuss the future of the trade agenda in the Pacific Rim. The US, which just months ago would have been leading the conversation, has decided not to send any senior officials and will be represented by its local ambassador.

這一談判如何適應眼下的局面，將成爲本週在智利召開的一次會議的重要議題。在這次會議上，TPP成員經濟體、中國及其他國家將聚在一處，討論環太平洋貿易議程的未來。幾個月前還可能主導此次對話的美國，已決定不派遣任何高級官員與會，只由美國駐當地的大使代爲出席。

Whereas TPP spanned the Pacific from the US to Australia, Japan and Vietnam, RCEP is meant to build on existing trade deals between the 10 Asean countries and six neighbours: Japan, China, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and India.

TPP覆蓋從美國到澳大利亞、日本和越南的整個太平洋，RCEP則打算建構在10個東盟國家和其6個鄰國——日本、中國、韓國、澳大利亞、新西蘭和印度——之間現有貿易協定的基礎上。

Given that a primary goal of TPP was to write “high-quality” trading rules in areas such as investment and intellectual property, some Chinese officials could not contain their glee when Mr Trump sounded its death knell. “Trump has given us a grand gift, though he does not know it,” Jin Yi’nan, a People’s Liberation Army general, said in January. A video of his speech has since gone viral.

由於TPP的一個主要目標是在投資、知識產權等領域書寫“高品質”貿易規則，特朗普(Donald Trump)敲響TPP喪鐘的那一刻，一些中國官員喜不自勝。今年1月，中國人民解放軍(PLA)少將金一南表示：“特朗普今天已經給我們送了個大禮了，雖然他不知道。”金一南這次講話的視頻在網上廣泛傳播。

“[The TPP] was meant to contain China economically,” General Jin added. “They collaborated to target China and kept China out?.?.?.?Now Trump says the US will exit TPP. What a wonderful gift. It could not be better.” Beijing now embraces RCEP as a "TPP-lite" alternative from which the US is excluded.

金一南還表示：“TPP經濟上圍堵中國……它們是聯手的，TPP把中國封在外頭，就對準中國……特朗普宣佈退出TPP，多好的事情！對我們太好了！”北京方面現在對RCEP很熱情，把它當作一項將美國排除在外的“精簡版TPP”。

But not everyone shares Beijing’s vision, and that is shaping the dynamics of RCEP. China wants an early deal — by the end of 2017 — but Japan and Australia are in less of a hurry. “If you don’t provide Asean with enough time, then low quality is their answer,” says the Japanese negotiator, because it takes time for the group to co-ordinate. Both sides are lobbying Asean countries heavily, especially the Philippines, which chairs the group this year, and Indonesia, original sponsor of the talks. If Asean takes a position, Japan and China will have to move towards it to reach a deal.

但並非所有人都認同北京方面的願景，這一情況決定着RCEP背後的較量。中國想早日達成協定——在2017年底前達成——日本和澳大利亞則沒那麼着急。上述日本談判代表說：“如果你不給東盟足夠的時間，那麼低品質就是它們的答案。”這是因爲，東盟國家需要時間來相互協調。現在，兩個陣營都在大力遊說東盟國家，尤其是今年的東盟主席國菲律賓和談判最初發起方印度尼西亞。一旦東盟確定了立場，日本和中國將不得不靠攏東盟以求達成一項協定。

China’s position is not a problem for Vietnam, one of the larger Asean countries, says Nghia Trong Pham, a UK-based academic who was a TPP negotiator for Hanoi. “Because RCEP is a multilateral agreement, China cannot play a monopoly role and impose their rules on other partners, particularly India, Japan and South Korea,” he says.

常駐英國的學者、曾代表越南參加TPP談判的Nghia Trong Pham表示，對越南而言，中國的立場不是什麼問題。他說：“由於RCEP是多邊協定，中國搞不了一言堂、將他們的規則強加於其他夥伴國，尤其是印度、日本和韓國。”

India, with different interests to the other players, is the other big question. New Delhi is reluctant to grant Chinese manufacturers the same import terms as Asean, but sees opportunities for services trade if Asean opens up. Negotiators say India is more engaged in the talks this year but there is still no agreement about letting it have different tariffs on different participants.

印度則是另一個大問題，它的利益與其他國家不同。印度不願給予中國製造商與東盟相同的進口條款，但看好東盟開放給印度服務貿易帶來的機會。談判代表們表示，今年印度對談判的參與更積極了，但目前各方仍未就允許印度對不同參與國徵收不同的關稅達成一致。

If an RCEP deal is reached, the US may rue abandoning TPP. It would mean, for example, that Japan and Korea get preferential access to Vietnam’s emerging car market, which the US would have got too as part of TPP. In this scenario, Tokyo and Canberra hope US corporations may put pressure on the Trump administration to think again, and come back to TPP.

如果RCEP能夠達成，美國或許會爲拋棄TPP感到後悔。舉例來說，達成RCEP將意味着日本和韓國獲得了越南崛起中的汽車市場的優惠准入，而美國若參與TPP原本也會獲得這一權益。在這種情形下，東京方面和堪培拉方面希望美國企業或許會向特朗普政府施加壓力，要它重新考慮並回歸TPP。

But everyone involved says a deal among such disparate parties will be tough. “Even though politically it may seem RCEP is the best avenue for trade liberalisation, practically it is very difficult,” says Rajiv Biswas, an economist at IHS Global Insight in Singapore. “I think expectations have been raised too much.”

不過，每位參與者都表示，各方之間的差異如此之大，要達成一項協定將十分困難。IHS環球透視(IHS Global Insight)駐新加坡經濟學家拉吉夫?比斯瓦斯(Rajiv Biswas)表示：“雖然從政治角度講RCEP似乎是通往貿易自由化的最佳途徑，但從實踐角度講這是很難的。我認爲人們的期望被擡得太高了。”