歐美自由貿易協定弊大於利

There is a lot of hype about the prospects of an EU-US free trade agreement, especially in the wake of Barack Obama's State of the Union address last week. Supporters point to the benefits such an agreement could bring to both economies. Yet the costs are likely to outweigh the benefits. Most importantly, a transatlantic deal will undermine multilateralism, in particular the long-overdue completion of the Doha round, and weaken multilateral institutions such as the World Trade Organisation.

圍繞歐盟-美國自由貿易協定問題一直存在着大量的炒作，特別是在巴拉克·奧巴馬(Barack Obama)上週發表國情諮文演講之後。支持者指出了此協定可能給兩個經濟體帶來的好處。然而，要爲協定付出的代價很可能大於它帶來的好處。最重要的是，跨大西洋協定可能會危及多邊主義的基礎，特別是人們期待已久的多哈(Doha)回合談判。另外，此協定會減弱世貿組織(WTO)等多邊機構的影響力。

An FTA will of course bring some benefits to the EU and the US via enhanced trade. The removal of trade barriers might raise the gross domestic product of the EU by 190bn and of the US by 100bn, according to estimates by the German Marshall Fund.

自由貿易協定能加強貿易聯繫，當然會給歐盟和美國帶來一些好處。根據德國馬歇爾基金會(German Marshall Fund)的估算，消除貿易壁壘可能會令歐盟(EU)的國內生產總值(GDP)增加1900億歐元，令美國的GDP增加1000億歐元。

While these figures are not negligible, they constitute rather modest gains – boosts of only 1.5 per cent and 0.9 per cent of GDP to the EU and US respectively. The largest potential benefit from an EU-US free trade deal would be enhanced competition among companies that become part of a much larger common market. Yet that is difficult to quantify.

儘管1900億歐元和1000億歐元並不是小數字，但實際的意義相當有限——它們相對於歐盟和美國GDP的比例分別僅爲1.5%和0.9%。歐盟-美國自由貿易協定可能帶來的最大好處是，隨着這兩個地區結成一個更大的共同市場，市場中企業間的競爭將會加劇。不過，這種好處很難進行量化。

Even these modest estimates are based on the hope that a comprehensive abolition of trade barriers can be achieved. This is more than doubtful, in particular as some of the largest trade barriers erected by the EU are on agricultural products, while the US is a major exporter of agricultural products.

即便這有限的好處也是基於一個假定，即真的可以全面撤銷貿易壁壘。這種假定能否實現非常令人懷疑，特別是考慮到歐盟建立的最大的貿易壁壘中有一些是針對農產品的，而美國正是一個農產品出口大國。

The recent EU budget deal alone assigns about 370bn for the common agricultural policy over the next seven years. Do we believe the EU will now alter its stance on agriculture to allow an FTA to be a more meaningful achievement?

單是在不久前達成的歐盟預算協議中，今後7年的共同農業政策支出達3700億歐元。我們能相信歐盟會改變其對農業的立場，令自由貿易協定取得更實在的進展嗎？

However, the main drawback of an EU-US FTA is that it might extinguish the remaining hope of achieving a truly multilateral trade agreement. The WTO's Doha round, which commenced in 2001, is paralysed and lingering unfinished.

不過，歐盟-美國自由貿易協定最大的問題在於，它可能會令達成真正的多邊貿易協定的最後一絲希望化爲泡影。2001年啓動的WTO多哈回合談判久拖不決，如今已陷入了僵局。

The unwillingness of the EU to compromise on trade liberalisation in agriculture and of the US to accept smaller tariff cuts for emerging markets have played no small part in the failure. The negotiation of an EU-US deal will not only capture the trade bureaucracy on both sides of the Atlantic, it will allow policy makers to forget the unfinished global agenda.

歐盟不願在農業貿易自由化方面做出讓步，而美國不願接受新興市場較低的關稅削減額度，都對多哈回合談判的失敗起了不小的作用。歐盟和美國就貿易協定開展談判，不僅會吸引大西洋兩岸官方貿易機構的注意力，還會令兩岸政策制定者把已擱淺的全球貿易議程拋諸腦後。

Furthermore, bilateralism undermines the few functioning global policy institutions. The WTO has been a success story by being a neutral, even-handed and fairly effective judge on trade disputes. Multilateral rules lose their relevance in a world where bilateral agreements come to dominate.

更重要的是，雙邊主義還會削弱幾家正在發揮作用的全球政策機構的影響力。目前，作爲解決貿易爭端的中立、公平而又相當有效的裁判機構，WTO已成爲一個成功範例。然而，如果雙邊協定佔據了世界的主導地位，多邊規則將會失去其影響力。