四大問題左右年能源格局

What are the issues that will shape the global energy market in 2018? What will be the energy mix, trade patterns and price trends? Every country is different and local factors, including politics, are important. But at the global level there are four key questions, and each of which answers is highly uncertain.

2018年，哪些問題將左右全球能源市場格局？能源結構、貿易模式和價格趨勢將是怎樣的？每個國家情況不同，包括政治在內的本土因素很重要。但在全球層面，有四個關鍵問題，每個問題的答案都存在高度不確定性。

The first question is whether Saudi Arabia is stable. The kingdom’s oil exports now mostly go to Asia but the volumes involved mean that any volatility will destabilise a market where speculation is rife. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is apparently in control but it is a strange and fragile sort of control that requires the imprisonment of dozens of senior businessmen including members of the royal family, the concentration of power in the hands of one individual and a huge international PR campaign to persuade the world that MbS is a modernising liberal.

第一個問題是沙特阿拉伯能否保持穩定。目前，沙特王國的石油出口大多流向亞洲，但其出口量意味着任何波動都會讓這個充斥着投機活動的市場變得不穩定。穆罕默德?本?薩勒曼王儲(Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman)似乎控制着局面，但這是一種古怪而脆弱的控制：它有賴於羈押包括王室成員在內的幾十名大商人、將權力集中於一人之手，以及發動大規模國際宣傳活動，以說服全世界穆罕默德?本?薩勒曼是一位現代化自由主義者。

That is certainly not the view held in Yemen or across the Middle East. Behind the grand plans for a new $500bn city (sorry, "urban metropolis for the world") run by robots and the radical notion of allowing Saudi women to drive for the first time is a degree of old-fashioned religious fanaticism directed against the Shia communities across the region and Iran in particular. This could produce real instability over the next few months.

顯然，也門或者整個中東並不這麼想。在投資5000億美元建立一個由機器人運營的新城（抱歉，原話是“世界的大都會”）的宏大計劃以及首次允許沙特婦女開車這種激進思想背後，有一種針對整個中東地區、尤其是伊朗的什葉派的舊式宗教狂熱。這可能在接下來幾個月帶來真正的不穩定。

The risk is that an open conflict, which Iran and Saudi have traditionally avoided despite all their differences, would spread and hit oil production and trade. It is worth remembering that the Gulf states account for a quarter of global production and over 40 per cent of all the oil traded globally. The threat to stability is all the greater given that Iran is likely to win any such clash and to treat the result as a licence to reassert its influence in the region.

儘管兩國存在種種分歧，伊朗和沙特一向避免公開衝突。倘若雙方爆發衝突，可能蔓延並影響到石油生產和貿易活動。別忘了，海灣國家佔全球石油產量的四分之一，佔全球石油貿易的40%以上。考慮到兩國若發生衝突伊朗很可能勝出，並將己方的勝利視爲重新確立本國在中東地區影響力的通行證，這使可能的衝突對穩定的威脅就更大了。

The second question is how rapidly production of oil from shale rock will grow in the US — 2017 has seen an increase of 600,000 barrels a day to over 6m. The increase in global prices over the past six months has made output from almost all America's producing areas commercially viable and drilling activity is rising. A comparable increase in 2018 would offset most of the current Opec production cuts and either force another quota reduction or push prices down.

第二個問題是美國的頁岩油產量會增長多快。2017年，美國的頁岩油日產量增加60萬桶，達到逾600萬桶。過去6個月，國際油價的上漲使美國幾乎所有石油產區具備了商業開發價值，鑽探活動正在增加。如果2018年美國頁岩油產量有同等程度的增加，歐佩克(Opec)減產的影響將在很大程度上被抵消，結果是，或者歐佩克被迫再一次下調生產配額，或者油價被拉低。

The third question concerns China. For the last three years the country has managed to deliver economic growth with only minimal increases in energy consumption. Growth was probably lower than the claimed numbers — the Chinese do not like to admit that they, too, are subject to economic cycles and recessions — but even so the achievement is considerable. The question is whether the trend can be continued. If it can, the result will limit global demand growth for oil, gas and coal.

第三個問題與中國有關。過去3年，中國在能源消費量微幅增長的情況下實現了經濟增長。中國的經濟增速很可能低於對外宣稱的數字——中國人不情願承認他們也受到經濟週期和衰退的影響——但即使如此，中國的這一成就依然是可觀的。問題在於這一趨勢能否持續。如果能的話，它將限制全球石油、天然氣和煤炭需求的增長。

China, which accounts for a quarter of the world’s daily energy use, is the swing consumer. If energy efficiency gains continue, CO2 emissions will remain flat or even fall. The country's economy is changing and moving away from heavy industry fuelled largely by coal to a more service-based one, with a more varied fuel mix. But the pace of that shift is uncertain and some recent data suggests that as economic growth has picked up, so has consumption of oil and coal. Beijing has high ambitions for a much cleaner energy economy, driven not least by the levels of air pollution in many of the major cities; 2018 will show how much progress they are making.

中國佔全球能源日消費量的四分之一，是一個能夠左右整體格局的能源消費國。如果能效繼續提高，其二氧化碳排放量將持平甚至下滑。中國經濟正在轉型，從主要由煤炭拉動的重工業經濟轉變爲更多地由服務業驅動，能源結構更多樣化。但經濟轉型的速度尚不確定，最近一些數據顯示，隨着經濟增長提速，石油和煤炭消費量也在增加。北京方面的一個遠大理想是發展由更清潔能源驅動的經濟，這主要是考慮到很多大城市的空氣污染水平；2018年將可以看到他們取得了多大進步。

The fourth question is, if anything, the most important. How fast can renewables grow? The last few years have seen dramatic reductions in costs and strong increase in supply. The industry has had a great year, with bids from offshore wind for capacity auctions in the UK and elsewhere at record low levels.

第四個問題可能是最重要的。可再生能源的發展能有多快？過去幾年，可再生能源的成本大幅下滑，供應強勁增長。該行業度過了美好的一年，在英國和其他地區，海上風電拍賣的報價達到創紀錄低點。

Wind is approaching grid parity — the moment when it can compete without subsidies. Solar is also thriving: according to the International Energy Agency, costs have fallen by 70 per cent since 2010 not least because of advances in China, which now accounts for 60 per cent of total solar cell manufacturing capacity. The question is how rapidly all those gains can be translated into electric supply.

風電正接近“電網平價”(grid parity)，到了那個拐點它可以在沒有補貼的情況下與其他能源競爭。太陽能也形勢大好：根據國際能源署(International Energy Agency)的數據，自2010年以來，太陽能的成本已下降70%，這主要是因爲中國的進展，中國目前佔全球太陽能電池製造能力的60%。問題是所有這些增長能夠多快轉化爲電力供應。

Renewables, including hydro, accounted for just 5 per cent of global daily energy supply according to the IEA's latest data. That is increasing — solar photovoltaic capacity grew by 50 per cent in 2016 — but to make a real difference the industry needs a period of expansion comparable in scale to the growth of personal computing and mobile phones in the 1990s and 2000s.

根據國際能源署的最新數據，包括水力發電在內的可再生能源僅佔全球每日能源供應的5%。這個佔比在上升（2016年，太陽能光伏發電能力增長50%），但要真正產生影響，可再生能源行業需要經歷一個擴張期，其勢頭要能與上世紀90年代個人電腦、本世紀初手機的發展相提並論。

The problem is that the industry remains fragmented. Most renewable companies are small and local, and in many cases undercapitalised; some are built to collect subsidies. A radical change will be necessary to make the industry global and capable of competing on the scale necessary to displace coal and natural gas. The coming year will show us whether it is ready for that challenge.

問題是，該行業仍很分散。多數可再生能源公司規模小、本地化，很多公司資金不足；一些公司的成立是爲了獲得補貼。要讓這個行業全球化、並以能夠取代煤炭和天然氣所需的規模競爭，必須進行重大變革。接下來這一年，我們將看到該行業是否做好了應對這種挑戰的準備。

In many ways, the energy business is at a moment of change and transition. Every reader will have their own view on each of the four questions. To me, the prospect is of supply continuing to outpace demand. If that is right, the surge in oil prices over the past two months is a temporary and unsustainable phenomenon. It would take another Middle East war to change the equation. Unfortunately, that is all too possible.

從很多方面而言，能源行業正處於一個變革和過渡的時刻。每一個讀者對這四個問題都有着自己的看法。在我看來，未來供應將繼續超過需求。如果這是正確的，那麼過去兩個月的油價飆升將是暫時的、不可持續的。要改變這種供需關係除非再發生一場中東戰爭。不幸的是，這太有可能了。