年全球氣溫創紀錄新高

Last year was the hottest on earth since record-keeping began in 1880, scientists reported on Friday, underscoring warnings about the risks of runaway greenhouse gas emissions and undermining claims by climate change contrarians that global warming had somehow stopped.

科學家上週五發表報告顯示，去年是自1880年記錄開始以來，地球上最熱的一年，對溫室氣體排放失控的危險發出了更強的警告，削弱了反對氣候變化者認爲的全球變暖已經停止的觀點。

Extreme heat blanketed Alaska and much of the western United States last year. Records were set across large areas of every inhabited continent. And the ocean surface was unusually warm virtually everywhere except near Antarctica, the scientists said, providing the energy that fueled damaging Pacific storms.

去年，酷熱天氣覆蓋了阿拉斯加州和大部分美國西部地區。地面溫度在所有有人居住的大陸上都創下了記錄。科學家說，海洋表面在除南極洲附近海域以外的幾乎所有水域中都異常溫暖，爲造成巨大破壞的太平洋風暴提供了能量。

In the annals of climatology, 2014 surpassed 2010 as the warmest year. The 10 warmest years have all occurred since 1997, a reflection of the relentless planetary warming that scientists say is a consequence of human activity and poses profound long-term risks to civilization and nature.

在氣候學的史冊裏，2014年超過了2010年，成爲最熱的年份。有記錄以來的10個最暖年份都是在1997年以後，反映了地球不斷變暖的趨勢，科學家說，這種變暖是人類活動的結果，並對人類文明和大自然構成了深遠的長期危險。

“Climate change is perhaps the major challenge of our generation,” said Michael H. Freilich, director of earth sciences at NASA, one of the agencies that track global temperatures.

“氣候變化也許是我們這代人的重大挑戰，”美國國家航空航天局(NASA)地球科學部主任邁克爾·H·弗萊利赫(Michael H. Freilich)說，他的部門是跟蹤全球氣溫的機構之一。

Of the large land areas where many people live, only the eastern portion of the United States recorded below-average temperatures in 2014, in sharp contrast to the unusual heat in the West. Some experts think the weather pattern that produced those American extremes is an indirect consequence of the release of greenhouse gases, though that is not proven.

在美國許多人居住的大面積地區之中，只有東部在2014年記錄到低於平均氣溫的溫度，這與西部的異常高溫形成了鮮明對比。有專家認爲，造成美國這些極端溫度的天氣模式是溫室氣體排放的間接後果，但這個觀點尚有待證明。

Several scientists said the most remarkable thing about the 2014 record was that it had occurred in a year that did not feature a strong El Niño, a large-scale weather pattern in which the Pacific Ocean pumps an enormous amount of heat into the atmosphere.

一些科學家說，2014年成爲創下氣溫紀錄的一年，最值得注意的一點是該年度並沒有發生強大的厄爾尼諾現象，一種由於太平洋將巨大的熱量輸送到大氣層所造成的大尺度天氣模式。

Skeptics of climate change have long argued that global warming stopped around 1998, when an unusually powerful El Niño produced the hottest year of the 20th century. Some politicians in Washington have seized on that claim to justify inaction on emissions.

對氣候變化持懷疑態度的人長期以來認爲，全球氣溫已在1998年左右停止變暖，那年是20世紀最熱的一年，原因是異常強大的厄爾尼諾現象。華盛頓的一些政客用這種說法作爲不對溫室氣體排放採取行動的理由。

But the temperature of 1998 is now being surpassed every four or five years, and 2014 was the first time that happened without a significant El Niño. Gavin A. Schmidt, head of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies in Manhattan, said the next strong El Niño would probably rout all temperature records.

但1998年的記錄現已被每四、五年一次的新記錄多次打破，而2014年的記錄是在沒有顯著厄爾尼諾現象發生的年度創下的。加文·A·施密特(Gavin A. Schmidt)是位於曼哈頓的美國宇航局戈達德太空研究所的所長，他說，下一次的強厄爾尼諾現象可能會打破所有的溫度記錄。

“Obviously, a single year, even if it is a record, cannot tell us much about climate trends,” said Stefan Rahmstorf, head of earth system analysis at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany. “However, the fact that the warmest years on record are 2014, 2010 and 2005 clearly indicates that global warming has not ‘stopped in 1998,’ as some like to falsely claim.”

“很顯然，單獨一個年度，即使是創記錄的年度，不可能告訴我們很多關於氣候變化趨勢的東西，”德國波茨坦氣候影響研究所地球系統分析部門主管斯德範·拉姆斯朵夫(Stefan Rahmstorf)說。“然而，有記錄以來的最熱年度是2014年、2010年和2005年的這個事實清楚地表明，全球變暖並沒有‘在1998年停止’，像一些人喜歡錯誤地宣稱那樣。”

Such claims are unlikely to go away, though. John R. Christy, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville who is known for his skepticism about the seriousness of global warming, pointed out in an interview that 2014 had surpassed the other record-warm years by only a few hundredths of a degree, well within the error margin of global temperature measurements. “Since the end of the 20th century, the temperature hasn’t done much,” Dr. Christy said. “It’s on this kind of warmish plateau.”

但是，那些宣稱不大可能會消失。阿拉巴馬州大學亨茨維爾校區的大氣科學家約翰·R·克里斯蒂(John R. Christy)以懷疑全球變暖的嚴重性而知名，他在一次採訪中指出，2014年的記錄只比以前年度的創紀錄溫度高出百分之幾度，完全是在全球溫度測量值的誤差範圍之內。克里斯蒂說，“自20世紀末，氣溫並沒有太多變化，一直處於較暖的穩定水平。”

Despite such arguments from a handful of scientists, the vast majority of those who study the climate say the earth is in a long-term warming trend that is profoundly threatening and caused almost entirely by human activity.

儘管有少數人堅持這種說法，但絕大多數研究氣候的科學家表示，地球正在經歷一個長期變暖的趨勢，這種趨勢給人類帶來深刻的威脅，而且幾乎完全是由人類活動造成的。

They expect the heat to get much worse over coming decades, but already it is killing forests around the world, driving plants and animals to extinction, melting land ice and causing the seas to rise at an accelerating pace.

他們預測，在未來幾十年中，炎熱天氣會變得更糟，這種天氣已經在世界各地導致森林死亡、植物和動物物種滅絕、陸地冰層融化，以及海平面上升速度加快。

“It is exceptionally unlikely that we would be witnessing a record year of warmth, during a record-warm decade, during a several decades-long period of warmth that appears to be unrivaled for more than a thousand years, were it not for the rising levels of planet-warming gases produced by the burning of fossil fuels,” Michael E. Mann, a climate scientist at the Pennsylvania State University, said in an email.

賓夕法尼亞州立大學的氣候科學家邁克爾·E·曼恩(Michael E. Mann)在電子郵件中說，“如果不是由於燃燒化石燃料所產生的、導致地球變暖的氣體排放越來越多的原因，在上千年史無前例的幾十年較暖期間、創紀錄地變暖的十年中，看到變暖的又一個記錄年度，是非常不可能的。”

NASA and the other American agency that maintains long-term temperature records, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, issued separate data compilations on Friday that confirmed the 2014 record. A Japanese agency had released preliminary information in early January showing 2014 as the warmest year.

NASA和另一個保持長期氣溫記錄的美國機構、國家海洋和大氣管理局在上週五發布了各自的數據彙編，證實了2014年是創紀錄的一年。一家日本機構曾在一月初發布初步信息顯示，2014年是最熱的一年。

One more scientific group, in Britain, that curates the world’s temperature record is scheduled to report in the coming weeks.

英國的一個收集全球氣溫紀錄的科學小組也將在未來幾周內提交報告。

Separate temperature measurements taken from satellites do not show 2014 as a record year, although it is close. Several scientists said the satellite readings reflected temperatures in the atmosphere, not at the earth’s surface, so it was not surprising that they would differ slightly from the ground and ocean-surface measurements that showed record warmth.

來自用衛星採集的獨立溫度測量結果沒有顯示2014年是記錄年，但是接近記錄。幾位科學家說，衛星測量的數據反映的是大氣層的溫度，而不是地球的表面溫度，所以衛星數據會與來自地面和海洋表面的測量結果略有不同，並不奇怪，而表面的溫度測量顯示了創記錄的溫暖。

“Why do we keep getting so many record-warm years?” Dr. Schmidt asked in an interview. “It’s because the planet is warming. The basic issue is the long-term trend, and it is not going away.”

施密特在接受採訪時問道，“爲什麼我們接連看到如此多的創紀錄溫暖年度？這是因爲地球正在變暖。根本的問題是，這是一種長期趨勢，這種趨勢不會消失。”

February 1985 was the last time global surface temperatures fell below the 20th-century average for a given month, meaning that no one younger than 30 has ever lived through a below-average month. The last full year that was colder than the 20th-century average was 1976.

1985年2月是全球表面溫度低於給定月份的20世紀平均值的最後一個月份，這意味着所有年齡在30歲以下的人都沒有經歷過低於平均溫度的月份。最後一個低於20世紀平均溫度的年度是1976年。

The contiguous United States set a temperature record in 2012, a year of scorching heat waves and drought. But, mostly because of the unusual chill in the East, 2014 was only the 34th warmest year on record for the lower 48 states.

不包括阿拉斯加和夏威夷在內的美國本土曾在2012年創下溫度記錄，那年發生過灼人的熱浪和乾旱。主要是由於東部地區不同尋常地寒冷，才使得2014年的溫度對這48個州來說，僅在有記錄以來的最暖年度中排名第34。

That cold was drawn into the interior of the country by a loop in a current called the jet stream that allowed Arctic air to spill southward. But an offsetting kink allowed unusually warm tropical air to settle over the West, large parts of Alaska and much of the Arctic.

冷空氣是被一個名爲高空急流的氣流循環帶到美國本土的內部，這讓北極的冷空氣南下。但是，一個抵消這種冷空氣的怪現象，讓異常溫暖的熱帶空氣停留在西部地區、阿拉斯加大部分地區以及北極大部分地區的上空。

A few recent scientific papers say that such long-lasting kinks in the jet stream have become more likely because global warming is rapidly melting the sea ice in the Arctic, but many leading scientists are not convinced on that point.

一些最近發表的科學論文說，高空急流中這種持續較長的怪現象，由於全球變暖正在導致北極地區海洋中的冰迅速融化而變得更可能發生，但許多主要的科學家還沒有被這種觀點說服。

Whatever the underlying cause, last year’s extreme warmth in the West meant that Alaska, Arizona, California and Nevada all set temperature records. Some parts of California essentially had no winter last year, with temperatures sometimes running 10 to 15 degrees above normal for the season. The temperature in Anchorage, Alaska’s largest city, never fell below zero in 2014, the first time that has happened in 101 years of record-keeping for the city.

不管是什麼根本原因，去年美國西部地區的極端溫暖意味着，阿拉斯加州、亞利桑那州、加利福尼亞州和內華達州都創下了氣溫記錄。加利福尼亞州的一些地區去年基本上沒有冬天，那些地區的氣溫有時比季節正常溫度高出10到15華氏度(5.5到8.3攝氏度)。在阿拉斯加的最大城市安克雷奇，2014年的氣溫從未低於華氏零度(或攝氏零下18度)，在該市101年的氣溫記錄中，這是首次。

Twenty years of global negotiations aimed at slowing the growth of heat-trapping emissions have yielded little progress. However, 2014 saw signs of large-scale political mobilization on the issue, as more than 300,000 people marched in New York City in September, and tens of thousands more took to the streets in other cities around the world.

二十多年的旨在減少溫室氣體排放增長的全球談判幾乎沒有進展。但在2014年，人們看到了針對這個問題的大規模政治行動的跡象，在30多萬人去年九月在紐約舉行大遊行之後，世界各地的其他城市中也有數以萬計的人走上街頭。

The next big attempt at a global climate agreement will come when negotiators from around the world gather in Paris in December. Political activists on climate change wasted no time Friday in citing the 2014 heat record as proof that strong action was needed.

達成一個全球性氣候協議的下一次大嘗試，將是在來自世界各地的談判代表今年12月聚集巴黎的時候。氣候變化問題的政治活動人士上週五不失時機地引用2014年的溫度記錄爲證，表明採取強有力行動的必要性。

“The steady and now record-breaking rise in average global temperatures is not an issue for another day,” Michael R. Bloomberg, the former New York mayor who is spending tens of millions of dollars of his personal fortune to battle climate change, said in a statement. “It’s a clear and present danger that poses major economic, health, environmental and geopolitical risks.”

紐約前市長邁克爾·R·布隆伯格(Michael R. Bloomberg)正在爲抗擊氣候變化花費自己私人財產的數千萬美元，他在一份聲明中說，“全球氣溫穩步上升、如今破紀錄地上升的問題，不是一個未來的問題。這是一個迫在眉睫的明顯危險，對經濟、健康、環境和地緣政治有重大的危害。”