沙特2050年可能淘汰化石燃料

Saudi Arabia, the largest crude exporter, could phase out the use of fossil fuels by the middle of this century, the kingdom’s oil minister, Ali al-Naimi, said yesterday.

沙特阿拉伯石油部長阿里•納伊米(Ali Al-Naimi)昨日表示，這個全球最大原油出口國到本世紀中葉可能逐漸淘汰化石燃料。

The statement represents a stunning admission by a nation whose wealth, power and outsize influence are predicated on its vast reserves of oil.

對一個依靠巨大石油儲量獲得財富、實力和過大影響力的國家來說，這一聲明令人震驚。

Mr Naimi, whose gnomic utterances on oil supply routinely move markets, told a conference in Paris on business and climate change: “In Saudi Arabia, we recognise that eventually, one of these days, we are not going to need fossil fuels. I don’t know when — in 2040, 2050 or thereafter.”

納伊米關於石油供應的精闢言辭經常影響市場行情。他在巴黎舉行的一個商業和氣候變化會議上表示：“在沙特阿拉伯，我們意識到，最終而言，我們遲早將不需要化石燃料。我不知道具體什麼時候——或許在2040年、2050年或之後。”

For that reason, he said, the kingdom planned to become a “global power in solar and wind energy” and could start exporting electricity instead of fossil fuels in coming years.

他說，出於這個原因，沙特計劃成爲“世界太陽能和風能大國”，並可能在幾年後開始出口電力，而非化石燃料。

Many in the energy industry would find his target of a 2040 phase-out too ambitious. Saudi Arabia is the largest consumer of petroleum in the Middle East. More than 25 per cent of its total crude production — currently over 10m barrels a day — is used domestically.

能源行業的許多人會認爲，他提出的2040年逐步淘汰化石燃料的目標過於雄心勃勃。沙特阿拉伯目前是中東地區最大的石油消費國，其原油總產量（如今超過每日1000萬桶）的25%以上用於國內消費。

A 2012 Citigroup report said that if Saudi oil consumption continued to grow at current rates, the kingdom could be a net oil importer by 2030.

2012年花旗集團(Citigroup)的一份報告稱，如果沙特的石油消費量按照目前的速度繼續增長，到2030年該國可能成爲一個石油淨進口國。

But while acknowledging that Saudi Arabia would one day stop using oil, gas and coal, Mr Naimi said calls to leave the bulk of the world’s known fossil fuels in the ground to avoid risky levels of climate change needed to be put “in the back of our heads for a while”.

但是，在坦承沙特有朝一日會停止使用石油、天然氣和煤炭的同時，納伊米表示，讓世界上大部分已探明化石燃料儲量留在地下、以免氣候變化達到危險水平的呼籲，需要“在一段時期內被置於腦後”。

“Can you afford that today?” he asked other conference speakers, including British economist Nick Stern, author of the 2006 UK government report on the economics of climate change.

“你今天負擔得起那種做法嗎？”他對會上的其他發言者問道。這些人包括英國經濟學家尼克•斯特恩(Nick Stern)，他是2006年關於氣候變化經濟學的英國政府報告的作者。

“It may be a great objective but it is going to take a long time,” Mr Naimi said.

“這也許是一個偉大的目標，但它需要很長的時間，”納伊米說。

With more than 1bn people lacking access to electricity, there was going to be strong demand for fossil fuels for many years to come, he said, adding that more work was needed to find ways to burn oil, coal and gas without releasing warming carbon dioxide emissions.

他表示，鑑於世界上仍有逾10億人尚未用上電，化石燃料將在未來多年面對強勁需求。他補充說，需要開展更多工作，以找到燃燒石油、煤炭和天然氣而不釋放加劇全球變暖的二氧化碳的方法。

Saudi Arabia has long said it plans to use more renewable power. Officials declared three years ago that they had plans to build so many solar plants they would be able to export solar electricity. But the fall in oil prices has increased doubts about the fate of such schemes.

沙特多年來一直表示，它計劃更多使用可再生能源。該國官員在三年前宣稱，他們計劃大量建造太陽能發電廠，以期能夠出口太陽能電力。但油價下跌令人懷疑此類項目會否上馬。