肉製品行業面臨岔路口 Meat: Out of the frying pan

As Eric, a technician in his 20s, sat at a café in London’s Soho on Thursday morning ready to tuck into a breakfast fry-up of sausages, bacon, eggs, potatoes and toast, any thoughts about possible health repercussions were taking a back seat to his appetite. Asked about the World Health Organisation’s declaration this week that bacon, sausage and other processed meats were carcinogenic, he shrugged.

世界衛生組織(WHO)上月宣佈培根、香腸等加工肉製品屬於致癌物。這一消息公佈3天后的那個週四早上，二十多歲的技術人員埃裏克(Eric)坐在倫敦蘇活區一家咖啡館裏，準備開始享用早餐。他的早餐包括：香腸、培根、煎雞蛋、炸土豆和吐司。所有關於這些東西可能有害健康的想法都要爲他的胃口讓道。當被問及如何看待世衛組織宣佈的那條消息時，埃裏克聳了聳肩。

“It feels like everything is at risk of giving you cancer these days, so I don’t feel it’s a reason to stop eating,” he says. “I do eat a lot of meat but not much bacon. You can only try to eat healthier.”

他說：“我覺得現如今好像一切東西都有致癌風險，所以我不覺得有必要因此戒掉它們。我平常確實很能吃肉，但不太吃培根。人只能儘量吃得更健康。”

In popular culture, too, the reaction to the cancer report has been a resolute “hands off my bacon”. On The Late Show, presenter Stephen Colbert said only the waft of frying bacon could get his two teenage boys out of bed in the morning. “You think they’re going to come running down the stairs to the scent of me washing kale?”

大衆態度也是如此。對於世衛組織最新發布的這份報告，人們堅決表示“別動我的培根”。《深夜秀》(The Late Show)主持人斯蒂芬科爾伯特(Stephen Colbert)在節目中說，每天早晨只有煎培根的香味能把他兩個十幾歲大的兒子叫醒。“你覺得他們能因爲聞到我洗羽衣甘藍的味跑下樓嗎？”

But such sympathies have offered little comfort to the meat industry, which has reacted furiously to the study by the International Agency for Research on Cancer, based in Lyon, France.

可是民衆的支持並沒有令肉製品行業感到多少安慰，該行業已對總部設在法國里昂的國際癌症研究機構(IARC)作出憤怒迴應。

The North American Meat Institute called the report “dramatic and alarmist over-reach”, suggesting that it was the work of new agers. “Only one substance, a chemical in yoga pants, has been declared by IARC not to cause cancer,” said Barry Carpenter, Nami president.

北美肉類協會（North American Meat Institute，簡稱NAMI）稱這份報告“過於誇張，危言聳聽”，認爲該研究簡直像出自新時代運動者(New Ager)手筆。協會負責人巴里慍濃祟(Barry Carpenter)說：“IARC宣佈不會致癌的只有一種物質——瑜伽褲中的一種化學物質。”

In the home of Parma ham, the trade body representing producers of Italian prosciutto, mortadella and bresaola fretted about the “possible economic impact, which could lead to job losses”.

在帕爾馬火腿的故鄉，代表意大利火腿、意式肉腸和意大利風乾牛肉生產商的行業協會表示擔憂，認爲此事“可能產生經濟影響，從而造成人們失業”。

Perhaps they are right to be worried. While the link between the risk of cancer and eating too much processed and smoked meat is not new, the certainty with which the IARC has classified processed meat as a Group 1 carcinogenic — a group that includes tobacco and asbestos — has been a surprise.

他們的擔憂或許不無道理。癌症風險與吃太多加工肉製品和煙燻肉製品之間的聯繫並不新鮮，但此次IARC如此明確地將加工肉製品列爲1級致癌物，與菸草、石棉同屬一類，着實令人意外。

“This does not mean they are equally dangerous,” the report said, a message that appears to have got lost. “Eating processed meat causes colorectal cancer,” but the risk “remains small”.

但人們似乎忽視了一個信息，IARC在報告中表示：“這並不意味着它們的危險等級是一樣的。食用加工肉製品會導致腸癌，（但風險）仍然很小。”

For the global meat industry, the health warning is a reminder of the huge shifts in consumer tastes that are already reshaping the business. Demand for processed and red meats is waning in developed markets as customers seek leaner, healthier cuts and more organic fare.

IARC的健康警告提醒全球肉製品行業，消費者口味的巨大轉變已經在大大改變這一行業的面貌。在發達市場，更低脂、更健康的肉類以及有機食品正成爲新的消費潮流，加工肉製品和紅肉的需求正在不斷減弱。

This trend has cut across Big Food in general — perhaps most noticeably in the fizzy drinks industry, where a decade-long fall in US sales reflects a consumer backlash against sugar and artificial sweeteners.

這股潮流已經席捲整個“垃圾食品”業(Big Food)，受影響最明顯的可能是碳酸飲料行業。在美國，碳酸飲料銷量已連續十年下降，反應出消費者對糖和人造甜味劑印象轉差。

Red meat consumption in the US and in the UK has been flat or falling for years, while sales of white meat — especially chicken — have been on the rise, in response to health warnings linking high fat content to heart disease.

在英美市場，紅肉消費量已多年持平或下降，白肉（尤其是雞肉）的銷量則一直呈上升趨勢，響應了關於心臟病與高脂肪食品有關的健康警告。

In the US, though overall per capita red meat consumption remains at six- decade lows, it has been buoyed by the popularity of high-protein/low-carbohydrate diets such as the Caveman or Paleo. And red meat has not been tarnished with the same carcinogenic brush as processed — the IARC said there was only “limited evidence” that red meat caused cancer and that its nutritional value meant it should not be cut out of diets.

在美國，雖然人均紅肉消費量大體仍保持在60年來的低點，但 “穴居人飲食法”(Caveman)和“原始人飲食法”(Paleo)等高蛋白、低碳水化合物飲食的流行，一直對紅肉消費起着支撐作用。而且紅肉並未像加工肉製品那樣，被標爲1級致癌物，IARC表示只發現“有限證據”表明紅肉致癌，但紅肉有很高的營養價值，不應將它從飲食中去掉。

But it had no such reassuring message for producers of frankfurters, ham, corned beef and jerky — meat that has been transformed through processes such as salting, curing or fermentation. The question now for companies that produce processed meat is how to react to the health warnings.

可是對於經過鹽漬、醃製或發酵等工藝處理的肉製品（如法蘭克福香腸、火腿、鹹牛肉和牛肉乾）的生產商來說，IARC並沒有傳遞這樣令人寬慰的消息。那些生產加工肉製品的企業現在面臨的問題是，對這一健康預警應作何反應？

John Britton, professor of epidemiology and director of the UK Centre for Tobacco Control Studies at Nottingham University, says the meat industry should learn from the mistakes of the tobacco industry. “The responsible thing is to look at why your products are causing harm and act to change them. The irresponsible thing, which is what the tobacco industry did, is to challenge the evidence, say it’s not reliable and question the credentials of the scientists involved,” he says.

諾丁漢大學(Nottingham University)英國菸草控制研究中心(UK Centre for Tobacco Control Studies)主任，流行病學教授約翰布里頓(John Britton)表示，肉製品行業應從菸草業的錯誤中吸取教訓。他說：“負責任的做法是探究爲什麼你的產品會造成危害，並採取措施加以改變。不負責任的做法是質疑證據，稱其不可靠，並質疑相關科學家的資質，菸草業就是這麼做的。”

But Marion Nestle, professor of nutrition and food studies at New York University says the meat industry “is still in the denial stage”.

但紐約大學(New York University)營養與食品研究教授瑪麗昂蔠斯特萊(Marion Nestle)表示，肉製品行業“仍處於否認階段”。

“From their standpoint it is bad science,” she says. “The first thing you do is attack the science — right out of the tobacco industry’s playbook.”

她說：“在他們看來，這是僞科學。他們做的第一件事就是攻擊科學，完全照搬菸草業的路數。”

Analysts say the pressure on processed meat — and the broader processed food industry — is not going to go away, since the shift to more wholesome foods still has a long way to run. Many upstart companies have capitalised on this, offering organic or leaner products and taking market share away from established groups.

分析師表示加工肉製品乃至廣大加工食品業的壓力不會消失，因爲向更健康食品的轉變道路還很長。許多新創公司便利用了這一點，提供有機或更低脂的產品，從老牌企業那裏奪得市場份額。

“Consumer tastes are shifting but not so fast that companies cannot capitalise on them,” says Nicholas Fereday, senior analyst at Rabobank International. “Smart companies are moving.”

荷蘭合作銀行(Rabobank)高級分析師尼古拉斯費裏迪(Nicholas Fereday)說：“消費者的口味在轉變，但還沒有快到讓企業來不及加以利用。聰明的企業已經在行動了。”

Mr Fereday notes that Hormel, the 124-year-old maker of Spam, recognised these trends when it bought Applegate Farms, a natural and organic meat business, this year. “We do recognise that more and more consumers today are seeking foods that are minimally processed and have no preservatives,” Hormel said this week. The company has been introducing more products that contain no preservatives or added nitrates at its Jennie-O Turkey Store and at Applegate.

費裏迪指出，世棒(Spam)午餐肉的製造商，創立124年的荷美爾(Hormel)已經認識到這一趨勢，該公司今年收購了天然有機肉類企業阿普爾蓋特農場(Applegate Farms)。荷美爾近期表示：“我們已經認識到，如今越來越多的消費者尋求儘量少加工、不含防腐劑的食品。”該公司不斷在旗下Jennie-O Turkey Store和阿普爾蓋特農場推出更多不含防腐劑、不添加硝酸鹽的產品。

The healthy food trend also presents new business opportunities, says Alexia Howard, an analyst at Bernstein. She notes that British supermarkets have introduced better quality processed meals, such as Tesco’s mini salmon frittatas with dill Béarnaise.

伯恩斯坦(Bernstein)分析師亞歷克西婭霍華德(Alexia Howard)表示，健康食品風潮也帶來了新商機。她指出英國超市已推出更優質的加工食品，比如樂購(Tesco)的迷你三文魚意式蛋餅配蒔蘿蛋黃醬。

“Look at the UK, there has been massive evolution in prepared snacks that M&S, Tesco Finest etc do. The US consumer is clamouring for fresher authentic items like that. Costco has gone some way towards it, Whole Foods as well, but there is no holistic offering,” she says of US retailers.

亞歷克西婭談到美國零售商時表示：“看看英國，瑪莎百貨(M&S)、樂購最優(Tesco Finest)製作的預製零食有了長足的進步。美國消費者疾呼這類更新鮮、可靠的食品。好市多(Costco)已經朝着這一方向邁進了不少，全食(Whole Foods)也是，但尚未推出整體商品。”

But so far, the industry’s main response to shifting appetites has been to cut costs to maintain profit margins.

不過到目前爲止，該行業對消費者口味變化的主要反應是削減成本以保持利潤率。

After decades of growth, packaged food companies became inefficient and complacent, analysts say, making them an attractive target for outside investors — as in the case of Kraft and Heinz which were both acquired by 3G Capital, the private equity group founded by Brazilian beer billionaire Jorge Paulo Lemann and Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway. Last year, meat producer Tyson Foods bought rival Hillshire for $8.6bn.

分析師表示，經過幾十年的增長期後，包裝食品企業已變得效率低下且安於現狀，這令它們成爲外部投資者的收購目標。比如卡夫(Kraft)和亨氏(Heinz)就雙雙被3G資本(3G Capital)收購。這傢俬人股本集團是由巴西啤酒大亨若熱保羅萊曼(Jorge Paulo Lemann)和沃倫巴菲特(Warren Buffett)旗下伯克希爾哈撒韋(Berkshire Hathaway)投資集團創立的。去年，肉製品生產商泰森食品(Tyson Foods)以86億美元收購了競爭對手Hillshire。

But cost-cutting only goes so far. Mr Fereday says companies need to create products with fewer additives and more natural ingredients if they want to keep up with consumer demands.

但削減成本的效果有限。費裏迪表示企業如果想跟上消費者需求的節奏，就需要推出添加劑更少、天然成分更多的產品。

“Reformulating inevitably results in higher ingredient costs. Companies may have to accept lower margins going forward as the price to pay for sales growth,” he says. “This may be a tough lesson for food companies to learn: better to have a low-margin business than no business at all.”

費裏迪說：“調整產品配方勢必導致原材料成本上升。在前進的道路上，企業或許不得不接受較低的利潤率，作爲銷售增長的代價。這對食品企業來說可能是艱難的一課：低利潤的生意也好過徹底沒生意。”

Yet even as demand for processed and red meat wanes in developed markets, it is growing in emerging markets. Exports of British food to China, including pork, as well as dairy products and salmon, leapt by 12 per cent in terms of sales last year, compared with 2013, according to the UK’s Food and Drink Federation. It hopes that China will approve the import of pigs’ trotters — a “potentially huge” market, according to the Federation.

不過，雖然加工肉製品和紅肉在發達市場的需求減弱，它們在新興市場的需求卻在不斷上升。據英國食品和飲料聯合會(Food and Drink Federation)的資料，2014年英國對華食品出口銷售額同比上升12%，食品種類包括豬肉、乳製品和三文魚。該聯合會希望中國能批准進口豬蹄，認爲這是一個“潛力巨大”的市場。

Euromonitor says it expects China to overtake the US as the world’s biggest processed meat market this year. It was the main driver of the industry’s 3 per cent growth in 2014.

歐睿(Euromonitor)表示，預計中國今年將超過美國，成爲全球最大的加工肉製品市場。2014年加工肉製品業同比增長3%，主要動力來自中國。

China is switching rapidly from a rice and vegetables-based diet to one based on meat. The country is struggling to feed its 1.3bn population, which will be boosted by the end of the one-child policy announced this week, through purely domestic means, Euromonitor says.

中國人的飲食習慣正在從大米蔬菜爲主，迅速轉變成以肉類爲主。歐睿表示，如果單純靠國內食品生產，中國很難養活13億人口，而近期中國政府宣佈結束一胎政策將加大這一困難。

China may be one way to save the western producers’ bacon, but advocates of organic and naturally-raised meat say producing better quality products is another.

中國可能成爲拯救西方培根生產商的一條途徑，但提倡有機和天然飼養肉類的人士表示，另一條途徑是生產更優質的產品。

“The IARC study lumps all types of meat together — it assumes all beef is equal,” says Peter Melchett, policy director at the Soil Association. “But anyone can tell that a grass-reared Angus from the highlands of Scotland is a different animal from a grain-finished breed kept indoors most of its life.”

英國土壤協會(Soil Association)政策總監彼得蔠爾切特(Peter Melchett)表示：“IARC的研究將所有肉類混爲一談，它假定所有牛肉都是一樣的。可是人人都分辨得出，蘇格蘭高地上放養吃草長大的安格斯牛，和圈養的基本吃穀物飼料長大的安格斯牛，完全是兩種動物。”

The Great British breakfast was not going to disappear, he says. “But if people eat it once a week, it’s better for their health and the planet.”

梅爾切特表示，英式早餐不會消失，“但如果人們每週只吃一次，這對他們的健康和地球會更好。”

For Wendy, a Singapore tourist ordering the Full Monty breakfast in the Soho Café, it was a chance to try black pudding — a delicacy of cooked pig’s blood mixed usually with oatmeal. “It is famous and I want to try it; we don’t have this in our country,” she said.

在蘇活區的這間咖啡館裏，新加坡遊客溫迪(Wendy)點了一份全套英式蒙蒂早餐(Full Monty)，她想借機嘗一下黑布丁的味道，這是一道用豬血、通常還有燕麥製成的美味佳餚。溫迪說：“這道菜很有名，所以我想嘗一下，在我們國家是吃不到的。”