香港遭遇雙重打擊 Hong Kong officials hope to experience temporary buffer

There is an irony to the fact Hong Kong’s economy may enjoy a temporary cushion from the effects of rising US interest rates because of China’s bungled summer renminbi devaluation.

具有諷刺意味的是，由於中國內地今年夏季的人民幣貶值舉措搞砸，香港經濟可能會獲得少受美國加息影響的暫時緩衝。

The territory, with its currency pegged to the dollar and its future tied to China, is trapped between the conflicting forces of tighter US policy and the slowdown in the mainland.

港元盯住美元，但香港的未來與中國內地聯繫在一起，這個特別行政區夾在美國貨幣政策收緊和內地經濟放緩這兩股相互衝突的力量之中。

Its economy is slowing, yet yesterday, the peg obliged the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, worried about a surge in outflows to the US, to match the Federal Reserve’s quarter-point rate rise.

香港經濟正在放緩，但昨日港元聯繫匯率制迫使香港金管局(Hong Kong Monetary Authority)跟隨美聯儲(Fed)加息25個基點，擔心外流到美國的資金飆升。

Last week Norman Chan, HKMA chief executive, was blunt about his worries when he told a gathering of economists in the city to be prepared for a “period of capital outflows, rising interest rates and slower growth”.

上週，香港金管局總裁陳德霖(Norman Chan)對於這種擔憂直言不諱，他在香港的一個經濟學家會議上表示，要爲“一段時期的資本外流、加息和增長放緩”做好準備。

Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economic research at HSBC, said the slowdown was inevitable. “We had the best of all worlds for years; we had very low US rates and a boom in China,” he said. “Now China is slowing and the Fed is raising rates, so we get a double whammy for Hong Kong.”

匯豐銀行(HSBC)亞洲經濟研究聯席主管範力民(Frederic Neumann)表示，經濟放緩是不可避免的。“我們曾在多年期間兩頭得利；我們擁有美國的超低利率，也有內地經濟的繁榮，”他表示，“如今，內地經濟在放緩，美聯儲在加息，因此對於香港而言，我們遭遇了雙重打擊。”

Property prices are already feeling the pressure, slipping 6 per cent in the past three months and forcing developers to offer ever greater sweeteners to help maintain prices.

房地產價格已感受到這種壓力，過去3個月，香港房價下跌6%，迫使開發商提供更大優惠力度，以幫助維持房價。

Last time the Fed began a rate-rising cycle in 2004, Hong Kong enjoyed low debt and was on the up after the Sars virus crisis, helped by being viewed by investors as a proxy for China.

美聯儲上一次加息週期始於2004年，當時香港享受着較低的債務，同時在非典(Sars)危機過後，經濟處於上升勢頭，得益於香港被投資者視爲投資中國內地的替代者。

But debt has soared, with private sector borrowing at 200 per cent of gross domestic product, according to UBS.

但根據瑞銀(UBS)的數據，香港債務自那以來飆升，私營部門借款與GDP之比達到200%。

“This isn’t going to be like 2004,” said Duncan Wooldridge, economist at UBS. “The US rate cycle, China’s business cycle and [weakening] Chinese renminbi are not favourable for Hong Kong.”

“現在的情況與2004年不同，”瑞銀經濟學家吳德愷(Duncan Wooldridge)表示，“美國的利率週期、中國內地的商業週期以及人民幣（貶值）都對香港不利。”

The city’s economy may still receive a temporary reprieve if bank rates are slow to rise, which looks likely after China’s shock devaluation in August triggered a rush to switch renminbi for Hong Kong dollars.

如果銀行利率上漲緩慢（在中國今年8月人民幣貶值引發投資者紛紛將人民幣換成港元之後，這一點看上去有可能出現），香港經濟仍可能獲得暫時的喘息空間。

That pushed excess liquidity, in the form of aggregate bank balances, to HK$426bn, the highest since 1997. Analysts at ANZ Bank estimate liquidity, now HK$391bn, would have to fall to $285bn before local banks need to raise rates to attract funds.

這推動香港的過剩流動性（其形式爲銀行總結餘）達到4260億港元，爲自1997年以來最高。澳新銀行(ANZ)分析師估計，在本地銀行需要加息吸引資金之前，目前3910億港元的流動性必須降至2850億港元。