沙特石油部長阿里納伊米離任的背後

Speculation about Ali al-Naimi’s retirement has been a favourite guessing game in the oil market for well over a decade. Many Saudi-watchers have been forced into embarrassing recantations after predicting the oil minister’s demise. As government reshuffles have come and gone, the octogenarian technocrat has remained the one constant presence.

十多年來，阿里•納伊米(Ali al-Naimi，見上圖)何時退休一直是石油市場最愛猜的一個謎。許多沙特觀察人士都曾在預測這位沙特石油部長即將去職後被迫尷尬地收回前言。沙特政府成員不斷洗牌，然而這位年逾八旬的技術官僚一直穩居其位。

With last year’s change of regime in the world’s largest oil exporter, however, it was only a matter of time before the ministry welcomed a new face.

但去年這個世界最大石油出口國發生政權更替後，沙特石油部長之職迎來新面孔就只是時間問題了。

Mr Naimi’s position had become untenable in recent weeks after he appeared to have been overruled by Mohammed bin Salman, the 30-year-old son of King Salman and the man who holds the main levers of power in the state today.

最近幾周，納伊米的地位似乎變得難以爲繼。此前，沙特國王薩勒曼(King Salman)30歲的兒子、現在掌握着該國主要權柄的人——穆罕默德•本•薩勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman)看上去推翻了納伊米的決定。

In the opaque world of Saudi politics, it is hard to know for certain what went on between the minister and the deputy crown prince during last month’s Doha meeting of leading oil producers, called to agree a production freeze and give a boost to the price.

在沙特不透明的政治世界裏，很難確定在上個月主要產油國的多哈會議中，這位沙特石油部長和副王儲之間發生了什麼（該次會議的目的是就石油凍產和油價提升達成一致）。

But perceptions matter. And Mr Naimi was seen to have consented to a freeze even if Iran — Saudi Arabia’s arch-foe — insisted on raising its own output. The deputy crown prince was adamant that no deal should be struck without Iran. He made his views public.

但外界看法很重要。在外界看來，納伊米已同意凍產，即使沙特的死敵伊朗堅持要提高本國的石油產出。副王儲則堅持沒有伊朗的參與就不能達成任何協議。他公開了他的觀點。

Although the Saudi statement replacing Mr Naimi with Khalid al-Falih was silent on the circumstances of the change, the departing oil minister had been hoping for some time to go into retirement but had been held back by King Salman. Either way, the seasoned veteran whose stewardship of the oil market had won widespread respect would probably have preferred a more glorious exit.

儘管沙特方面對哈立德•法立赫(Khalid Falih)接替納伊米的聲明在變動原因上保持了沉默，這位即將離職的石油部長希望退休已有一段時間，但被薩勒曼國王阻止。不管怎樣，這位經驗豐富的部長對石油市場的管理贏得了廣泛的尊敬，很可能他寧願用一種更榮耀的方式退場。

Having proposed a radical shift in policy in late 2014, when Saudi Arabia shocked the markets with a decision to protect market share rather than the price of oil, he has watched the price slump far further than his ministry or the government had predicted. Officials say their expectation was that the price would settle at $60-$70 a barrel.

2014年末，沙特保護市場份額而非石油價格的決定讓市場爲之震驚，當時提出根本性政策轉變的納伊米見證了石油價格的暴跌，跌幅遠超他所在的沙特石油部或者沙特政府所預測的程度。官員們表示，他們當時的預測是油價會穩定在每桶60到70美元。

The crash has jolted Riyadh into action to wean the country off its reliance on oil but it has also sparked domestic criticism that the gamble was not worth taking. The rebound since January — oil has gained about 50 per cent from its $30 low — has been a small consolation for Mr Naimi.

這次衝擊促使利雅得采取行動逐漸減少該國對石油的依賴，但也引發了國內批評，稱這次賭博不值得進行。1月以來油價的反彈——從每桶30美元的低點上升了約50%——對納伊米來說是一個小小的慰藉。

Markets will be relieved that the oil ministry will remain in the hands of a well-regarded technocrat — Mr al-Falih, chairman of state oil company Saudi Aramco, had previously been tipped for the position. Unlike Mr Naimi, he is part of the inner circle of Prince Mohammed. Both he and the deputy crown prince agree with Mr Naimi on the broad direction of oil policy, and believe the strategy has been vindicated by the pain suffered by US shale producers, which were always the main target. Those hoping for a change of direction will be disappointed.

將讓市場放心的是，沙特石油部將繼續由風評良好的技術官僚執掌——沙特阿拉伯國家石油公司(Saudi Aramco)董事長法立赫此前就曾被傳將接替這一職位。和納伊米不同，他是副王儲核心圈子中的成員。在石油政策的大方向上，他和副王儲都認同納伊米，並且相信沙特一直以來的主要目標——美國頁岩油生產商遭遇的痛苦證明這一策略是正確的。那些希望沙特石油政策發生方向性變化的人會感到失望。

The departure of Mr Naimi, however, underlines that the new order has upended the traditional relationship between the oil minister and the palace. MbS, as the deputy crown prince is known abroad, has proved hurried and brazen, willing to go where other senior princes have feared to tread. While Mr Naimi had a relationship of trust and a large degree of independence under the late King Abdullah, in the past year his ministry had come under the purview of a council chaired by Prince Mohammed.

然而，納伊米的離開凸顯出新秩序顛覆了石油部長和王室之間的傳統關係。副王儲（在海外被普遍稱爲MbS）已證明了自己的魯莽和大膽，願意去其他更年長的王子害怕涉足的地方。在已故國王阿卜杜拉(King Abdullah)執政時，納伊米曾享受信任關係和很大程度上的獨立性，而過去一年，他領導的石油部受到了由副王儲擔任主席的一個委員會的轄制。

Saudi royals tend to comment little on oil policy, leaving it to the technocrats. Not so under Prince Mohammed, who is deliberately outspoken as he charges ahead with an ambitious economic restructuring plan to diversify away from oil. He has said he pays little heed to gyrations in the oil price; he wants Saudi Arabia to thrive without oil.

沙特王室成員往往很少評論石油政策，會把這個問題留給技術官僚。而副王儲就不是這樣了，在他大力推進雄心勃勃的經濟結構調整計劃以實現從依賴石油轉向多元化的過程中，他有意直言不諱。他曾說過，他很少留意油價起伏，他希望沙特能在沒有石油的情況下繁榮發展。

More worrying for the oil market, however, is that recent Saudi actions, not least in Doha, suggest willingness by the palace to allow regional politics and the power struggle with Iran to intrude on oil policy.

然而，更讓石油市場憂慮的是沙特最近的動作，尤其是在多哈。這些動作表明王室願意讓地區政治和與伊朗的角力影響石油政策。

The departure of Mr Naimi from the Saudi oil scene marks the end of an era, for the oil market as well as for Saudi Arabia.

納伊米退出沙特石油舞臺標誌着一個時代的結束，對石油市場和沙特本身來說都是如此。