新巴拿馬運河的豪賭(上):問題重重的大項目

PANAMA CITY — On July 8, 2009, the Champagne finally flowed.

巴拿馬市——2009年7月8日，終於可以暢飲香檳了。

After an intense two-year competition, a consortium led by a Spanish company in severe financial distress learned that its rock-bottom bid of $3.1 billion had won the worldwide competition to build a new set of locks for the historic Panama Canal.

在進行了兩年的激烈競爭之後，由一家西班牙公司牽頭的一個財團獲知，其31億美元的底價投標方案在全球競標中勝出，將爲歷史悠久的巴拿馬運河修建一系列新的水閘。當時這個財團正處於嚴重的財務困境中。

The unlikely victors toasted their win. Within days, executives of the four-nation consortium, Grupo Unidos por el Canal, flew to Europe to begin planning the project.

出人意料的勝利令他們歡呼雀躍。幾天之內，這個名爲“運河聯合集團”(Grupo Unidos por el Canal)的四國財團的高管就飛到歐洲，着手籌劃這個項目。

Disputes quickly erupted over how to divide responsibilities. Some executives appeared not to fully grasp how little money they had to complete a complex project with a tight deadline and a multicultural team whose members did not always see things the same way.

他們很快就因爲分工的問題陷入爭執。一些高管似乎沒有充分意識到，他們需要用很少的錢，在緊迫的期限內完成一個複雜的項目，而且這是一個文化多元的團隊，成員們看待事情的方式並不總是相同。

Internal arguments soon gave way to bigger problems. There would be work stoppages, porous concrete, a risk of earthquakes and at least $3.4 billion in disputed costs: more than the budget for the entire project.

內部爭論很快讓位給了更大的問題。他們將遇到工程停滯、混凝土漏水、地震風險，以及至少34億美元存在爭議的成本：比整個項目的預算都高。

Seven years later, and nearly two years late, the locks have finally been declared ready to accept the new generation of giant ships that carry much of the world’s cargo but cannot fit in the original canal. To mark the occasion, Panama has invited 70 heads of state to watch on Sunday as a Chinese container ship becomes the first commercial vessel to attempt the passage from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific through the larger locks.

七年後，在比預定時間晚了近兩年之後，巴拿馬終於宣佈這些水閘準備好迎接新一代巨輪了，這種運載着全世界相當一部分集裝箱的輪船是無法通過原來的運河的。爲了紀念這個日子，巴拿馬邀請70個國家的元首在本週日來觀禮，屆時，一艘中國貨船將成爲首艘嘗試經過新運河從大西洋進入太平洋的商業船隻。

For more than 100 years, the canal has been a vital artery nourishing the world economy, a testament to American engineering and one of the signature public works of the 20th century. The new locks, built by Panama without help from other governments, were sold to the nation and the world as a way to ensure that the canal remained as much of a lifeline in the hyperglobalized 21st century as it was in the last.

100多年來，這條運河一直是世界經濟的重要動脈，是美國工程水平的明證，也是20世紀最著名的公共工程之一。巴拿馬自己修建了新的水閘，完全不靠其他國家政府的任何幫助，以此來向全國和全世界表明，在21世紀的超全球化進程中，這條運河仍然是像20世紀那樣的生命線。

But the expanded canal’s future is cloudy at best, its safety, quality of construction and economic viability in doubt, an investigation by The New York Times has found.

但是這條拓寬了的運河，其未來充其量也只能說是陰雲密佈，《紐約時報》的調查發現，它在安全性、建設質量和經濟可行性上問題重重。

In simple terms, to be successful, the new canal needs enough water, durable concrete and locks big enough to safely accommodate the larger ships. On all three counts, it has failed to meet expectations, according to dozens of interviews with contractors, canal workers, maritime experts and diplomats, as well as a review of public and internal records.

簡單來說，要想獲得成功，新的運河需要足夠多的水量，耐久性強的混凝土，而且水閘需要大到足以讓大型船隻安全通過。但經過採訪幾十名承包商、運河工人、海事專家和外交官，翻閱公共和內部記錄，可以看到它在這三個方面都無法達到預期目標。

The low winning bid, $1 billion less than the nearest competitor’s, made “a technically complex mega-project” precarious from the outset, according to a confidential analysis commissioned by the consortium’s insurer. “There is little room in the budget for execution errors or significant inefficiencies,” the analysts, from Hill International, wrote in 2010, adding, “This is a high-risk situation.”

中標價格很低，比第二低的競標對手低10億美元。該財團的保險公司委託開展的一份機密分析顯示，這樣的低價使得“一個技術上很複雜的巨型項目”從一開始就岌岌可危。“預算中幾乎沒有爲執行錯誤或效率嚴重偏低留下任何餘地，”希爾國際(Hill International)的分析師在2010年寫道，“這樣的情況風險很高。”

Among the biggest risks is the concrete that lines the walls of the six mammoth locks punctuating the path between the seas.

最大的風險之一在於水閘的牆使用的混凝土，兩大洋之間共有六道這樣的巨型水閘。

Then there is the lock design. Tugboat captains say they cannot safely escort the larger ships because the locks are too small with too little margin for error, especially in windy conditions and tricky currents. In fact, in a feasibility study obtained by The Times, the Panama Canal Authority had earlier concluded that the tugs needed significantly more room.

然後是水閘的設計。一些拖輪船長說，他們無法安全地護送更大的船，因爲水閘太小，幾乎沒有留下出錯的餘地，尤其是在風大、水流險惡的情況下。事實上，在《紐約時報》看到可行性研究報告之前，巴拿馬運河管理局(Panama Canal Authority)早前就曾得出結論，拖輪需要遠遠更大的空間。

The tugboats themselves are a problem, especially the 14 new boats purchased from a Spanish company. To maneuver safely, they must be precisely controlled, but according to captains, they are so unstable that they operate best going backward, something that cannot be done while towing ships through the canal.

拖輪本身也是一個問題，尤其是從一家西班牙公司購買的14艘新船。要想安全行駛，就必須精確控制拖輪，但船長們說，這些船太不穩定，最好的做法以倒退的方式航行，而它們需要拖着船隻通過運河，是無法這樣退行的。

“The Spanish tugs are perfectly awful,” said Iván de la Guardia, the head of the tugboat captains’ union. Confidential documents obtained by The Times show that the canal authority bought the tugboats for $158 million from a company later represented by the son of Jorge L. Quijano, the canal’s administrator.

“西班牙的拖輪非常糟糕，”拖輪船長工會的負責人伊萬·德拉瓜迪亞(Iván de la Guardia)說。《紐約時報》獲得的機密文件顯示，運河管理局以1.58億美元的價格購買了這些拖輪，運河管理者豪爾赫·L·基哈諾(Jorge L. Quijano)的兒子後來成了那家銷售拖輪的公司的代表。

The new locks exist for one reason: so that huge “neo-Panamax” ships can move far greater quantities of cargo through the canal. For them to do that, the waterway must remain deep enough so that fully laden ships do not hit bottom. But canal officials discounted warnings that they needed new sources of water, and during a recent drought, shippers had to significantly lighten their loads.

新水閘存在的目的是讓巨大的“新巴拿馬型”船隻運載遠遠更多的貨物通過運河。要做到這一點，水道就必須足夠深，不至於讓滿載貨物的船隻觸及河底。但是需要新水源的警告沒有被運河官員聽取，在近期的一次乾旱中，船主不得不大量減輕船隻的負載量。

At the center of the story is the Panama Canal Authority, which oversaw the design of the new locks and chose the winning bidder. In a small country dominated by an old-money elite, where the very lifeblood is the canal, the authority is a power center unto itself, a government within a government.

處在這件事的中心的是巴拿馬運河管理局，監督新水閘的設計的是它，選擇中標人的也是它。在一個由老錢權貴統治、以這條運河爲命脈的小國，運河管理局本身就是一個權力中心，一個政府中的政府。

The Old and the New

新與舊

Grand in scale and beautifully imagined, the original Panama Canal is an engineering marvel. Ships glide through on a 50-mile water bridge. The lock gates, some weighing more than 700 tons, are watertight and buoyant, so finely balanced that should the power fail, a single person can manually open and close them.

原來的巴拿馬運河規模宏大，設計風格瑰麗，堪稱工程學上的一個奇蹟。船隻要沿着50英里長（約合80公里）的水橋滑行。水閘的閘門有些超過了700噸，不會漏水，又有浮力，實現了極佳的平衡。就算停電，也只要一個人就可以手工操作打開和關上閘門。

Three locks raise the ships 85 feet to Gatun Lake, which supplies water for the canal and drinking water for much of the country. Three more locks lower them back to sea level. All of the locks are filled and emptied by gravity, without pumps.

三道水閘令船隻升高85英尺（約合25米），行至加通湖。後者爲運河供水，也是巴拿馬許多區域的飲用水來源。另外三道水閘將船隻降低，再度回到海平面。所有的水閘都通過重力蓄水和排水，不需要水泵。

Over the decades, the canal made Panama, with few natural resources, a key square on the economic chessboard.

過去幾十年，因爲這座運河的存在，自然資源稀缺的巴拿馬得以成爲全球經濟棋盤上關鍵的一格。

Then China’s economic ascent ushered in a new era. Ships became bigger. The more cargo they carried, the lower the cost. By 2000, ships were being built that could not pass through the canal. Fearing that its waterway might end up like the long-outdated Erie Canal, the canal authority set out to build a bigger one.

之後，中國經濟崛起引領一個新時代到來。船體變得更大。單艘船運載的貨物越多，總成本就越低。至2000年，建造中的船隻已經大到無法通過這條運河。因爲擔心這條航道落得和早已過時的伊利運河(Erie Canal)一樣，運河管理局打算建一條更大的運河。

Just as it was about to solicit bids, the canal authority received some frightening news in November 2007. Jonathan Harris, a geologist working for the authority, reported that Panama’s earthquake risk was far greater than previously believed. By his assessment, the area is vulnerable to earthquakes of up to 8.0 magnitude, according to a diplomatic cable released by WikiLeaks.

就在即將開始招標之際，運河管理局於2007年11月聽到了一些駭人的消息。爲管理局工作的地質學家喬納森·哈里斯(Jonathan Harris)提出，巴拿馬發生地震的風險比此前想象的要大得多。維基解密(WikiLeaks)公開的一封外交電報顯示，喬納森估計這一地區有可能發生高達8級的地震。

Even so, three consortiums — including one led by Bechtel, a U.S. company with an international reputation for taking on big, difficult projects — pursued the contract. The financially weakest consortium was led by a Spanish company, Sacyr Vallehermoso, which U.S. officials called “nearly bankrupt” in one cable and “technically bankrupt” in another.

儘管如此，依然有三家財團——包括由柏克德(Bechtel)領導的一個，這家美國公司在國際上擁有承擔有難度的大型項目的聲譽——開始爭取這個合同。其中財力最弱的是由西班牙公司薩維(Sacyr Vallehermoso)領導的財團。美國官員在一封電報中稱這家公司“幾近破產”，在另一封中表示它“嚴格說來已經破產”。

Sacyr’s consortium included a Panamanian company owned by the family of the canal administrator at the time, Alberto Alemán Zubieta. The company, Constructora Urbana, in which Alemán himself previously owned stock, had already done millions of dollars in business with the canal. The other two members were Impregilo, a large Italian contractor, and Jan De Nul, a Belgian company that specializes in dredging and excavation.

薩維領導的財團包括由當時的運河管理局局長阿爾貝託·阿萊曼·蘇維塔(Alberto Alemán Zubieta)的家族擁有的一家巴拿馬公司。這家名爲城鎮建造(Constructora Urbana)的公司此前已經與運河管理局做了數百萬美元的生意。阿萊曼本人原先也持有公司的股票。財團另外兩個成員是意大利大型承包公司英波基洛(Impregilo)和專做疏浚和挖掘工程的比利時公司Jan De Nul。

In March 2009, after 15 months of contentious negotiations, the three consortiums submitted their sealed bids. The one with the best price and design would win.

到了2009年3月，經過15個月激烈的談判，三家財團提交了各自的密封投標書。報價和設計最優的一個將會勝出。

That July, the result was a shocker: The underdog Sacyr group had won.

當年7月，出來的結果讓人吃驚：一直不被看好的薩維集團中標。

Bechtel and U.S. diplomats were incredulous. Sacyr could not even “pour the concrete” for that amount, a Bechtel representative told the embassy, according to a diplomatic cable.

柏克德公司和美國外交官感到難以置信。在一封外交電報中，柏克德的一名代表告訴美國駐巴拿馬大使館，薩維甚至無法“澆鑄”那麼多的“混凝土”。

While Sacyr’s low offer meant Panama received a bargain on price, some viewed it as too good to be true.

儘管薩維的低報價意味着巴拿馬可以獲得價格上的優惠，但一些人認爲這個報價看起來太美好，不大可能實現。

A few days after Christmas in 2009, at lunch with Barbara J. Stephenson, the U.S. ambassador, Panama’s vice president, Juan Carlos Varela, confided his fears. He elaborated later: “You don’t mess around with something as important as the canal. When one of the bidders makes a bid that is a billion dollars below the next competitor, then something is seriously wrong,” he said, according to a diplomatic cable.

2009年聖誕節過去幾天後，在與美國大使芭芭拉·J·斯蒂芬森(Barbara J. Stephenson)共進午餐時，巴拿馬副總統胡安·卡洛斯·巴雷拉(Juan Carlos Varela)吐露了他的擔憂。一封外交電報顯示，他隨後進行了詳細解釋：“對於運河這麼重要的東西，是不能亂來的。其中一名競標者提出比其他競標者低10億美元的報價，這是非常不對勁的。”