有人歡喜有人愁:年諾貝爾獎將花落誰家
Once more the nation's honour rests on the words of a secretive bunch of Scandinavians, who, on naming the latest members of the world's most prestigious club, the Nobel laureates, unleash joyful celebrations, acrimonious protests, and a collectively mumbled "Who?"
國家榮譽將再一次降落到一羣神祕北歐人的話語上，他們將宣佈世界上最負盛名獎項，諾貝爾獎最新的獲獎者，引爆歡樂的慶祝活動、激烈的抗議和一個集體嘟囔着的“誰？”。The prize-giving starts on Monday with medicine or physiology, then moves to physics, chemistry and peace, before closing with economics and literature next week.
醫學或生理學獎星期一開始頒獎，然後到物理獎、化學獎以及和平獎，下週經濟學獎和文學獎最後頒佈。Most winners will be unfamiliar names and that can be no surprise. Hardly anyone with a public profile in science or economics is a contender; the literature prize has bypassed scores of famously great writers, from Nabokov to Tolstoy; and the peace prize is as fickle as any politics.
大多數的獲獎者將是陌生的名字，這毫不奇怪。在科學或經濟學領域幾乎沒有知名人士成爲競爭者，文學獎一直繞過久負盛名的偉大作家，從納博科夫到托爾斯泰；和平獎像政治一樣風雲莫測。
Britons, however, have fewer reasons than most to gripe about the obscurity of laureates. Since 2000, 16 prizes have landed on these shores. And the odds look good for a local winner this week. Only the US, which has won at least a prize a year since the second world war, can claim more Nobels than Britain.
然而，英國人有不少理由去抱怨獲獎者的默默無聞。自2000年以來，16個獎項花落到這些海岸。本地贏家這周獲獎的機率看起來很好。只有美國自二戰以來至少一年贏一個獎，比英國拿到了更多的諾貝爾獎。But UK winners are sure to be more scarce in future. The Nobels began with an emphasis on Europe, then shifted, with the US dominating since the 1940s. Other countries are in ascendance. "In the coming decades we will begin to see as many Nobel prize winners from Asia as we have seen from Europe and North America since the mid-20th century," says David Pendlebury, who spots Nobel-class researchers from literature citations at Thomson Reuters.
不過英國的獲獎者未來一定更加稀缺。諾貝爾獎開始主要在歐洲，然後轉移，美國自20世紀40年代以來一直佔據着這個獎項。其他國家也在崛起。 “在未來的幾十年中，我們將開始看到衆多來自亞洲的諾貝爾獎獲得者，正如20世紀中期以來我們一直能看到來自歐洲和北美的獲獎者，” 彭德爾伯裏(David Pendlebury)，他從湯姆森路透集團的文獻引證諾貝爾獎級的研究人員的話說。So who will win this year? No one is eligible without a nomination, and hundreds are received for each prize every year. Bob Dylan lurks, unlikely as ever, among the bookies' odds for the literature prize. Michael Orthofer, at The Complete Review, points to Mo Yan, Adonis and William Trevor, but warns: "They manage to be pretty unpredictable and often very idiosyncratic." Ladbrokes favours the Japanese writer Haruki Murakami.
那麼今年誰將會獲獎呢？沒有提名任何人都沒有資格，每個獎項每年都會收到數百個提名。鮑勃•迪倫潛伏着，不可能像以往一樣，有中文學獎的概率。Michael Orthofer，在全面審查中，指向莫言、阿多尼斯和威廉•特雷弗，但提醒說：“他們是相當不可預測的，而且往往是非常獨特的。”立博公司傾向於日本作家村上春樹。The peace prize may go to Moncef Marzouki, the human rights campaigner and interim president of Tunisia, in support of the Arab spring, though Gene Sharp, a champion of non-violent struggle, is another contender.
和平獎可能會是人權活動家和突尼斯臨時總統Moncef Marzouki，支持阿拉伯之春運動，雖然非暴力鬥爭的勝利者吉恩•夏普也是競爭者。One of Pendlebury's favourites for the economics prize, an invention of Sweden's national bank, is Sir Tony Atkinson, for work on income inequality.
瑞典國家銀行的發明，經濟學獎裏彭德爾伯裏最喜歡的其中一個，是託尼•阿特金森先生，致力於收入的不平等。The medicine prize must, at some point, honour Shinya Yamanaka for cell reprogramming, though Britain's Sir Alec Jeffreys is in contention for DNA fingerprinting.
醫學獎某些時候一定會因爲細胞重新編程獎勵Shinya Yamanaka，雖然英國爵士亞歷克•傑弗里斯也在用DNA指紋競爭這一獎項。What is more certain as Nobel week gets under way is that whoever wins, there will be protest, celebration and disappointment. And as the names are read, plenty of us lesser mortals will ask the same question: "Who?"
更加確定的是隨着諾貝爾獎這周照常頒佈，無論誰獲獎都會有抗議、慶祝和失望。隨着名字被念出，我們中平凡的大多數將會問同樣的問題：“誰？”各獎項具體揭曉時間
1、生理學或醫學獎：斯德哥爾摩時間8日11時30分
（北京時間8日17時30分）
2、物理學獎：斯德哥爾摩時間9日11時45分
（北京時間9日17時45分）
3、化學獎：斯德哥爾摩時間10日11時45分
（北京時間10日17時45分）
4、和平獎：斯德哥爾摩時間12日11時
（北京時間12日17時）
5、經濟學獎：斯德哥爾摩時間15日13時
（北京時間15日19時）
6、文學獎：尚未最終確定
