生命在於折騰: 金氏父子的核遊戲

It is quite a feat to make South Koreans feel nostalgic about Kim Jong-il – but his son appears to have managed it.

讓韓國人懷念金正日(Kim Jong-il)絕非易事，但他的兒子似乎做到了。

A common charge against the late North Korean leader was that he used provocations as bait to secure negotiations and aid from the US and South Korea. Within weeks of Pyongyang’s first nuclear test in 2006 the regime was in talks to suspend the programme in return for a resumption of US fuel shipments.

這位已故朝鮮領導人常被指責以挑釁爲誘餌，換取談判機會和美韓援助。2006年朝鮮首次進行核試驗，幾周後便坐到談判桌前，以暫停核計劃爲代價重新獲得美國的燃料供應。

Such deals have been condemned as appeasement by critics in Washington and Seoul. But if the Dear Leader’s approach sparked resentment, that has changed to alarm at Kim Jong-eun’s apparent determination to build a nuclear deterrent.

美國和韓國的批評人士譴責這種交易是綏靖政策。但如果說“親愛領袖”的手法引發憤怒的話，憤怒已經轉化爲擔心——因爲金正恩似乎執意要建立核威懾。

After a month of warnings of imminent war, North Korea has, in effect, rejected suggestions of talks from the US. Dialogue can only happen, the powerful National Defence Commission said last week, once the US secures the removal of sanctions against Pyongyang and removes Korea from its nuclear umbrella – conditions totally unacceptable to Washington, as Mr Kim well knows.

朝鮮在過去一個月內不斷髮出戰爭迫在眉睫的警告，實際上已經拒絕了美國的談判建議。勢力強大的朝鮮國防委員會(National Defence Commission)上週表示，只有美國解除對朝制裁，並將韓國剔除出它的“覈保護傘”，纔有對話可能。而金正恩十分清楚，這些條件是美國完全無法接受的。

The US has conditions of its own and is wary of being seen to come running when Pyongyang shouts. It wants North Korea to abide by previous promises to suspend its nuclear programme.

美國有自己的條件，並且不願給外界造成“朝鮮發令、美國起跑”的印象。美國希望朝鮮遵守先前的承諾，暫停核計劃。

But that could be just as unrealistic as North Korea’s own demands. Kim Jong-il, at least outwardly, declared his desire to “denuclearise” the peninsula. Kim Jong-eun has enshrined nuclear weapons in the nation’s constitution.

但這種希望可能與朝鮮的要求一樣不現實。金正日至少在表面上表達出半島無核化的意願，金正恩卻將擁有核武器寫入朝鮮憲法。

Officials in Seoul worry that the young leader’s inexperience adds a new dimension of risk. Kim Jong-il was presented to the ruling party as the nation’s next leader in 1974, and gradually assumed power over the following two decades before officially taking office at 51. Kim Jong-eun had just 15 months to get ready, and is believed to be only 30, at most.

韓國官員擔心，年輕的金正恩缺乏經驗會增加新的風險。金正日在1974年被執政黨確立爲朝鮮下一任領導人，他在接下來20年內不斷接過權力，最後在51歲時正式就職。金正恩只有15個月的準備時間，而且據稱他最多隻有30歲。

In Washington, there is a “wistful” feeling about Kim Jong-il’s reign, says Jonathan Pollack of the Brookings Institution. “There seems to be a sense he knew the way out of these situations,” he says.

美國布魯金斯學會(Brookings Institution)的喬納森•波拉克(Jonathan Pollack)認爲，美國“懷念”金正日執掌朝鮮時期。他表示：“人們似乎覺得金正日知道化解這類危局的出路。”

It is possible, as some analysts suggest, that North Korea’s recent long-range rocket launch, nuclear test and ominous predictions of war have all been aimed at precipitating potentially lucrative negotiations that it secretly craves. Similarly, its angry rejection of talks on “the eve of war” could be part of a drive to bolster the younger Kim’s image as a martial leader during the continuing US-South Korea exercises. The rhetoric may cool after April 30 when the two-month-long war drills – which Pyongyang calls preparation for an invasion – draw to a close.

一些分析人士表示，朝鮮近期發射遠程火箭、進行核試驗、發表危言聳聽的戰爭言論，可能都以促成談判爲目標，能帶來潛在利益的談判正是朝鮮私下裏夢寐以求的。類似的是，在美韓聯合軍演尚未結束時，朝鮮憤怒地拒絕“戰前”談判，可能是旨在提升金正恩的軍事領導人形象。當爲期兩個月的軍演（朝方稱這是爲侵略做準備）於4月30日結束後，朝鮮的出格言論或許將有所冷卻。

But it also seems likely that North Korea’s nuclear progress has shifted its assessment of risks and rewards. December’s successful satellite launch brought it closer to building intercontinental missiles, and February’s nuclear test appears to have been the most powerful yet. Over the past four decades, North Korea’s on-off programme has been gradually moving towards a functioning nuclear weapon, and that goal must now appear closer than ever.

但另一種可能是，朝鮮核計劃的進展改變了其對風險與回報的權衡。去年12月，朝鮮成功發射衛星，距離製造洲際導彈又近了一步。今年2月的核試驗似乎是威力最強大的一次。過去40年裏，朝鮮時斷時續的核計劃正逐步向開發出具備實戰能力核武器的方向邁進，而如今看來肯定比以往更接近了這一目標。

But it is probably still years away. Suggestions that Pyongyang can already fit a nuclear warhead on to a missile are speculative, as Barack Obama has noted . So it is possible that Mr Kim will soften his stance to avoid further sanctions and potentially attract economic assistance, at least for a while.

但實現目標可能還需數年。正如巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)所說，有關朝鮮已能用導彈搭載核彈頭的言論純屬猜測。因此，金正恩可能將至少在一段時間內軟化立場，以避免進一步制裁，吸引潛在經濟援助。

If Washington’s conditions for talks prove too much for Pyongyang to swallow it might find a negotiating partner in Seoul. Park Geun-hye, South Korea’s new president, made much during her campaign of her desire to improve relations with Pyongyang.

如果美國開出的談判條件令朝鮮難以接受，朝鮮或許會試圖把韓國作爲談判夥伴。韓國新任總統朴槿惠(Park Geun-hye)在競選時充分表達了改善朝韓關係的意願。

If she does come to the table, it would come as a relief to those who fear this diplomatic crisis could turn violent. It would also be straight out of the Kim Jong-il playbook.

如果朴槿惠確實能與朝鮮談判，擔心外交危機演變爲暴力行動的人便能長舒一口氣。這也完全符合金正日的策略。儘管先前有人期待金正恩成爲一位朝氣蓬勃的改革家，徹底革除父親的苛政，但眼下人們的希望卻變成了“有其父必有其子”。