中美峯會揭示北京政權的大國抱負

The California summit this week between presidents Barack Obama and Xi Jinping reflects the surprising speed with which China's new leader has asserted his authority at home and laid out his vision to establish his country as a 'great power' on a par with the U.S.

美國總統奧巴馬(Barack Obama)和中國國家主席習近平本週在加州舉行的峯會反映出，中國新領導人以出人意料的速度在國內確立了威信，並提出將中國打造成與美國比肩的“大國”的願景。

The two-day 'shirtsleeves summit' was hastily arranged and unusual for China in that it is largely unscripted─highlighting the extent to which Mr. Xi, the son of a revolutionary hero, has established himself as an authoritative and confident leader willing to negotiate directly with Mr. Obama.

爲期兩天的“非正式峯會”匆匆安排而成，從一定程度上看對中國不同尋常，因爲峯會很大程度上沒有“劇本”可依。這凸顯出習近平已經確立了權威、自信的領導人的地位，願意與奧巴馬直接對話。習近平的父親是位革命英雄。

U.S. officials hope the retreat at the Sunnylands estate starting Friday will allow the two leaders to develop a personal rapport and to discuss at length─without the protocol of a state visit─the most contentious issues between them, particularly North Korea, cybersecurity and maritime disputes in Asia.

美國官員希望此次峯會可以讓兩位領導人建立起友好的個人關係，在不必拘泥於國事訪問的禮儀的情況下，深入討論兩國間最有爭議的問題，尤其是朝鮮問題、網絡安全和亞洲的海上爭端。峯會將於週五在加州安納伯格莊園拉開帷幕。

For China, however, the priority is to present an image of a strong leader negotiating on an equal footing with Mr. Obama in their first meeting since Mr. Xi took power in November and outlined a 'Chinese dream' to rejuvenate the nation as an economic and military power.

但對中國而言，峯會的首要任務是，展示一個與奧巴馬在平等地位上進行對話的強勢領導人的形象。此次會晤是自習近平去年11月就任中共中央總書記並勾勒出將中國復興爲一個經濟軍事大國的“中國夢”以來首次與奧巴馬會晤。

Party insiders say Mr. Xi is deliberately setting himself apart from his predecessor, Hu Jintao, who never attempted such an informal meeting, appeared stiff and awkward in public and is viewed by many in China as a weak leader who failed to implement badly needed reforms during his decade in power.

中共黨內人士說，習近平故意顯示出自己與前任胡錦濤的不同。胡錦濤從未嘗試過進行這樣的非正式會晤，他在公開場合顯得生硬而拘謹，中國很多人認爲他是一位軟弱的領導人，在他擔任領導人的10年中，沒有實施中國急需的改革。

Mr. Xi's initiative puts Mr. Obama in a difficult position, as he seeks to establish a better working relationship with his Chinese counterpart, who will be in office for a decade, while reassuring Asian allies concerned about China's growing economic and military muscle.

習近平的想法令奧巴馬處境很爲難，因爲他一方面尋求與將在任10年的習近平建立更好的工作關係，同時又要讓那些對中國日益增強的經濟和軍事力量感到不安的亞洲盟友們放心。

People familiar with the preparations said that Chinese officials had been pushing for a meeting between Mr. Xi and Mr. Obama since around December to reinforce the new Chinese leader's signature foreign policy initiative, which is to forge a 'new-type great power relationship' with the U.S.

瞭解峯會籌備工作的人士說，自去年12月前後以來，中國官員一直在力推習近平與奧巴馬舉行會晤，以便鞏固習近平標誌性的外交政策主張，那就是與美國建立“新型大國關係”。

Chinese officials and experts say the concept is designed to avert the military conflict that has often arisen throughout history when a rising power challenges an established one.

中國官員和專家說，“新型大國關係”這一概念意在避免軍事衝突。歷史上，當一個崛起的大國挑戰一個老牌大國時，常常會爆發軍事衝突。

U.S. officials were initially lukewarm on the idea of a meeting partly because Mr. Xi was already scheduled to meet Mr. Obama twice in the autumn, at the G-20 and Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summits, and partly because the Chinese weren't offering much in return.

美國官員開始時對舉行會晤的想法並不熱心，原因之一是按計劃習近平今年秋季將與奧巴馬會晤兩次，一次是20國集團峯會，一次是亞太經濟合作組織(Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation)峯會；還有一個原因是中國方面沒有提出太多的回報。

The Obama administration was also waiting for the Chinese leadership to develop its domestic agenda, and provide details of what it meant by the 'new-type great power relationship'─which some U.S. and Asian officials thought implied that the U.S. should not interfere in China's strategic backyard.

奧巴馬政府也在等待中國領導層制定國內日程，提供有關“新型大國關係”的細節。一些美國和亞洲官員認爲，“新型大國關係”暗指美國不應干預具有戰略意義的中國國內及周邊問題。

But after visits to China by Secretary of State John Kerry and other senior administration officials, it became clear that Mr. Xi had moved more rapidly than anticipated to establish his authority and define policy priorities, said U.S. officials. In recent weeks, pressure on the Obama administration also mounted from China specialists and business leaders in the U.S. many of whom felt September was too late for a meeting with Mr. Xi, said people familiar with preparations for the meeting.

但美國官員說，美國國務卿克里(John Kerry)等美國高層政府官員訪華後，可以清楚地看到，習近平在確立自己的權威、定義政策重心方面比預期行動得更快。瞭解峯會籌備工作的人士說，近幾周，中國問題專家和美國企業領袖對奧巴馬政府施加的壓力也有所增大，其中很多人認爲9月與習近平舉行會晤太晚了。

Another factor, those people said, was that Mr. Xi chose to visit Russia and Africa on his first overseas visit as president in March, while Li Keqiang, the new Chinese Premier, went to India, Pakistan, Switzerland and Germany in May on his first foreign trip in that post.

上述那些人士說，導致兩人舉行此次峯會的另一個因素是，今年3月以中國國家主席身份首次出訪海外的習近平選擇訪問俄羅斯和非洲國家，而中國新任總理李克強今年5月首次出訪海外時則選擇訪問印度、巴基斯坦、瑞士和德國。

'China's basically been saying: we're changing our modus operandi; we're going to behave like a great power; we have options,' said Christopher Johnson, a former CIA China analyst now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

前美國中央情報局(CIA)中國問題分析人士約翰遜(Christopher Johnson)說，中國這是在向外界表明：我們正在改變做法，我們要像一個大國那樣行事，我們是有選擇的。約翰遜目前就職於華盛頓的戰略與國際問題研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)。

Mr. Obama finally proposed an informal meeting tagged on to the end of Mr. Xi's official visits to Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica and Mexico between May 31 and June 6, according to a senior U.S. official.

據一位美國高級官員透露，奧巴馬最終提議在習近平此次定於5月31日至6月6日的訪問行程末期追加一場非正式會晤。習近平此次正式出訪特立尼達和多巴哥、哥斯達黎加和墨西哥三國。

The idea was to move beyond the rigid agenda of bilateral meetings and state visits, which typically involve little more than opening statements and presentations of talking points, the official said.

這位官員說，這一想法是爲了避免雙邊會晤和國事訪問中一成不變的會議議程。一般正式會晤包括的議程無非就是雙方各做開場發言，陳述談話要點。

'This is not a typical diplomatic summit in the sense of dark suits and neckties and dozens of officials at the table reading from prepared scripts,' the U.S. official said. The official emphasized that it was not an emergency summit. Rather, with so many important issues on the agenda, 'the sooner we got started, the better.'

美國官員說，由於雙方都不必穿深色西裝，不用打領帶，也沒有數十位官員圍坐在桌子兩旁宣讀事先準備好的材料。因此從這一意義上說，這不是一場典型的外交峯會。這位官員還強調，這不是一場緊急峯會。相反，由於議事日程上列滿了諸多重要問題，我們越早開始，效果越好。

Mr. Obama is expected to press Mr. Xi to use China's economic leverage to persuade North Korea to stop its nuclear weapons program and refrain from further threats to attack South Korea and the U.S.

預計奧巴馬將向習近平施壓，要求中國動用其在經濟上的影響力說服朝鮮停止其核武器計劃，避免進一步威脅攻擊韓國和美國。

Another U.S. priority is to curb cyberattacks on the U.S. that the Pentagon said last month were conducted by entities linked to the Chinese government and military. The U.S. official said the American message will be that stealing proprietary information is damaging to China's own interests and to bilateral ties. The president will underscore his determination to protect U.S. companies and innovators, the official said.

美國關注的另一個重要問題是遏制其它國家對美國的網絡攻擊。五角大樓上個月表示，這些網絡攻擊是由與中國政府和軍方存在聯繫的實體發起的。這位美國官員說，美國希望傳達的消息是，竊取專屬信息對中國自身利益和中美雙邊關係均有害。這位官員說，奧巴馬將強調其保護美國企業和創新者的決心。

Mr. Obama also likely to express concern over what it perceives as a more confrontational approach by China to territorial issues in Asia, especially a dispute over uninhabited islands with Japan, the main U.S. ally in the region.

奧巴馬也有可能就在美國看來中國處理亞洲領土問題時採取的更具對抗性的方法表示關切。尤其是同日本這一美國在該地區的主要盟友就一系列無人居住的島嶼發生的爭端。

Both sides are playing down expectations of 'deliverable' results.

雙方都淡化了外界關於此次會晤將產生一系列結果的預期。

'The biggest outcome on the upside is that each side walks out saying: I get that guy, I see where he's coming from, and I can do business with him,' said Kenneth Lieberthal, a China expert at the Brookings Institution who was senior director for Asia on the National Security Council under President Clinton. 'The downside is if each side feels: I get that guy, I see where he's coming from, and I don't trust him. So there's some risk here.'

布魯金斯學會(Brookings Institution)中國問題專家李侃如(Kenneth Lieberthal)說，樂觀地看，此次會晤的最大成果將是，雙方在結束會晤之後能說：我瞭解了對方，知道他的立場，可以和他合作；而悲觀地看則是雙方均產生這樣的感覺：我瞭解了對方，知道他的立場，但我不信任他；所以還是存在一些風險的。李侃如曾在克林頓政府時期任美國國家安全委員會(National Security Council)亞洲事務高級主管。

Chinese analysts said Beijing accepted the format because they viewed an informal meeting as more prestigious than a state visit since only one other Chinese leader had been received in the U.S. in such a way: Jiang Zemin, who was hosted by President George W. Bush at the family ranch in Texas, in 2002.

中國分析人士說，北京接受這樣的安排是因爲，中方認爲非正式會晤比國事訪問更受尊崇。此前只有一位中國領導人曾經接受過美方這樣的款待，此人就是江澤民。2002年，時任美國總統的小布什(George W. Bush)曾在得州的家庭牧場接待過江澤民。

That took place shortly before Mr. Jiang retired, so for Mr. Xi to have a similar meeting so soon after taking power is a strong indication of his standing within the Party and his greater confidence in dealing with foreign leaders, according to Chinese political analysts.

此事發生在江澤民退休前不久。中國政治分析人士表示，習近平上臺後很快便與美國總統舉行這樣的會晤，從這一點可以很明顯地看出他在中共黨內的地位以及他與外國領導人相處時更加自信。

'The China-U.S. relationship has been heading in the wrong direction for several years,' said Shi Yinhong, director of the Center for American Studies at Renmin University in Beijing.

人民大學美國研究中心主任時殷弘說，有幾年時間，中美關係一直朝錯誤的方向行進。

'If Xi Jinping can meet in this way with the president of a superpower so early and achieve some results, this will be quite beneficial for him domestically, and show he's really the master of Chinese foreign policy.'

他說，如果習近平能這麼早與超級大國的總統以這種方式會晤並達成一定成果，這對於他在國內的影響是十分有益的，也會顯示出他確實掌控着中國的外交政策。

Mr. Xi already demonstrated his self-assured leadership style during his visit last year, when he attended a reunion with a family in Muscatine, Iowa, with whom he stayed for a while on a trip there in 1985.

去年訪美，習近平與艾奧瓦州馬斯卡廷(Muscatine)的一家人再聚首時就已經展示了充滿自信的領袖風格。1985年他訪問那裏時曾接受過這家人的款待。

But the Sunnylands meeting will be far more challenging, as he will have to be prepared to negotiate unscripted with Mr. Obama over several hours, according to people familiar with the preparations.

但瞭解峯會準備工作的人表示，美國加州安納伯格莊園的會晤對習近平來說將更具挑戰性，因爲他要做好與奧巴馬展開數小時無稿談話的準備。

In a typical bilateral meeting, Chinese leaders rarely deviate from a script that has been approved by other members of the Politburo Standing Committee, the top decision-making body.

在通常的雙邊會談中，中國領導人很少會脫稿講話，而稿子須得到中國最高決策機構中央政治局常委會其他委員的批准。

To avoid being accused of weakness by his peers, Mr. Xi is therefore highly unlikely to give any ground on issues relating to China's national security, according to Chinese and Western analysts.

因此，中國和西方分析人士表示，爲避免被同事指責自己軟弱，習近平很可能不會在中國國家安全問題上讓步。

He is likely to express China's concerns about the U.S. 'pivot' toward Asia which Beijing which sees this as part of a containment strategy. He is also expected to repeat China's call for an unconditional resumption of 'six party talks' between North and South Korea, China, Japan, the U.S. and Russia to discuss Pyongyang's nuclear program. And he will likely reiterate China's long-standing position that it, too, is a victim of cyberattacks.

他可能會表達中國對於美國把重心轉移到亞洲的擔憂，北京方面認爲這是美國遏制戰略的一部分。此外，預計他還會提到，中國呼籲無條件重啓“六方會談”。該會談指朝鮮、韓國、中國、日本、美國和俄羅斯共同討論平壤核計劃。他可能還會重申中國的一貫立場，即中國也是網絡攻擊的受害者。

'Xi Jinping wants to break out of a cycle under the last leadership where the U.S. would always complain about things, and the Chinese side would make concessions,' said one Chinese academic who advises the leadership on U.S.-China relations. 'He wants to be treated as an equal.'

爲領導層就美中關係提供諮詢的一位中國學者說，中國上一屆政府執政期間，美國總是在抱怨，中方則會做出讓步，習近平希望打破這樣一個循環，他希望得到平等對待。

American Itineraries

訪美行程

Past visits by Chinese leaders to the U.S.

中國領導人訪美大事記

1979 Deng Xiaoping visits U.S. following normalization of relations and famously dons a cowboy hat at a Texas rodeo

1979年，鄧小平在中美關係正常化後訪問美國。他在得克薩斯州某競技場上戴着寬邊牛仔帽的形象廣爲人知。

1997 President Jiang Zemin visits U.S. for the first time at invitation of President Bill Clinton, formalizing a thaw in ties eight years after the 1989 Tiananmen crackdown

1997年，在時任美國總統克林頓(Bill Clinton)的邀請下，江澤民首次訪美，標誌着1989年天安門事件發生八年後，中美關係正式“解凍”。

2002 President George W. Bush hosts President Jiang at the Bush family ranch in Crawford, Texas, after Beijing backs U.S.-led war on terror

2002年，北京對美國領導的反恐戰爭表示支持後，時任美國總統小布什(George W. Bush)在得克薩斯州克勞福德(Crawford)的家庭農場接待江澤民。

2006 Hu Jintao visits the U.S. for the first time as president but is denied full state honors and embarrassed by Falun Gong protester on White House lawn

2006年，胡錦濤作爲中國國家主席首次訪美，但卻沒有得到全套國事訪問待遇，並且還遭遇白宮草坪上法輪功抗議的尷尬。

2012 President Hu pays state visit to the U.S. and is received at the White House with full honors even as tensions mount in bilateral ties.

2012年，中美雙邊關係緊張氣氛加劇之際，胡錦濤對美國進行國事訪問，白宮給予全套外交儀的禮遇。

2013 President Xi Jinping meets President Obama at Sunnylands estate in California

2013年，習近平將在美國加州安納伯格莊園與奧巴馬會面。