美國3月貿易逆差創新高
The US in March recorded its biggest monthly trade deficit since the 2008 global financial crisis, fuelling concerns that the economy shrank in the first three months of the year.
3月美國出現自2008年全球金融危機以來最大的單月貿易逆差，引發美國經濟在今年頭三個月出現收縮的憂慮。The politically sensitive goods and services deficit rose to $51.4bn in March, up more than 40 per cent from the $35.9bn recorded in February. Exports rose less than 1 per cent while imports grew 7.7 per cent amid increased US demand for cars and mobile phones.
3月，政治上十分敏感的商品和服務貿易逆差增至514億美元，相比2月份的359億美元增長了逾40%。隨着美國對汽車和手機的需求增加，美國的進口增長了7.7%，而出口增長還不到1%。
The figures made for awkward reading for US policy makers. They came as Barack Obama, the president, attempts to make the case for a Pacific Rim trade pact with Japan and 10 other economies, amid criticism that past deals have caused deficits to balloon and triggered an exodus of jobs overseas.
這樣的數據讓美國的政策制定者感到尷尬。這些數據發佈之際，美國總統巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)正試圖證明與日本和其他10個經濟體達成一項環太平洋貿易協定的合理性，而外界則批評過去的貿易協定已導致逆差大幅增加，並致使工作機會流失到海外地區。
The data also reinforced the dilemma facing the US Federal Reserve as it ponders when to raise rates and bring monetary policy back to something approaching normality.
這些數據還讓正在考慮何時上調利率，使貨幣政策儘量回覆常態的美聯儲(Fed)面臨更加窘迫的兩難境地。On the one hand the increase in imports was a clear sign of strength in the consumption-driven US economy with imports of consumer goods rising strongly. The March figures were also distorted by a strike at west coast ports, which is now over.
一方面，進口的增長，尤其是消費品進口的強勢增長，是靠消費拉動的美國經濟走強的明顯標誌。3月的數據還受到現已結束的美國西海岸港口罷工的影響。On the other hand, yesterday’s data make it likely that already anaemic economic growth figures for the first quarter will be revised downwards, with economists predicting a contraction.
另一方面，昨日發佈的數據可能使本已乏力的第一季度經濟增長數據面臨下修，經濟學家在預測經濟出現收縮。Last week’s gross domestic product data, which showed the economy grew at an annual rate of just 0.2 per cent, assumed that the trade deficit dragged growth down by 1.25 percentage points. But the worse than expected March data meant first-quarter growth would end up another 0.5-0.7 percentage points lower, economists said.
上週的國內生產總值(GDP)數據顯示美國經濟的年增長率僅爲0.2%，該數據假設貿易逆差將GDP增長拉低了1.25個百分點。但經濟學家們表示，壞於預期的3月逆差數據意味着，第一季度增長率最終還要下調0.5到0.7個百分點。The big question now is how long the slowdown in the US economy will continue. Fed policy makers have said they believe the overall slowdown has been due, at least partly, to temporary factors, including the ports strike and a harsh winter in the east.
現在最大的問題是美國的經濟放緩會持續多長時間。美聯儲的政策制定者表示，他們相信美國經濟的總體放緩至少應部分歸咎於臨時性因素，包括港口罷工和美國東部嚴寒的冬季。Many economists still expect the US economy to bounce back in the second quarter.
許多經濟學家仍然預期美國經濟將在第二季度回彈。A 20 per cent surge in consumer goods imports in March and a 10.2 per cent increase in car imports were signs that the economy is strong, said Paul Ashworth, chief US economist for consultants Capital Economics.
諮詢公司凱投宏觀(Capital Economics)的首席美國經濟學家保羅•阿什沃思(Paul Ashworth)表示，3月消費品進口激增20%，汽車進口增長10.2%，這些跡象表明美國經濟表現強勁。The consumer goods imports figures showed that “US retailers anticipate a big pick-up in domestic consumption growth in the second quarter”, he said. “Accordingly, we still think that second-quarter GDP growth will be above 3 per cent annualised.”
消費品進口數據表明“美國的零售商預測國內消費增長將在第二季度大幅上升，”他說，“相應地，我們依然認爲第二季度的GDP年化增長率將高於3%。”The latest data showed the US trade deficit with China rose $10.5bn to $37.8bn in March with imports increasing $10.9bn to $47.1bn.
最新數據表明，3月美國對華貿易逆差上升105億美元至378億美元，其中進口上升109億美元至471億美元。The deficit with Japan, the other big economy in the Pacific Rim trade talks, increased to $6.3bn in March thanks to a $2.2bn rise in imports.
對於環太平洋貿易談判中的重要經濟體日本，3月美國貿易逆差上升至63億美元，其中進口上升了22億美元。
