南海問題上美中關係已至臨界點了嗎

Have the US and its allies in Asia reached a tipping point in their relations with China? The question posed by US China scholar, David Lampton, in a speech in Shanghai in March looks disturbingly prescient after a whirl of diplomatic and security offensives in recent weeks in the region.

美國及其亞洲盟友與中國的關係是否已經到了臨界點？在亞洲近幾周來上演了一連串外交和安全攻勢後，美國的中國問題專家戴維•蘭普頓(David Lampton)今年3月在上海發表講話時提出的這個問題，現在看來有着驚人的預見性。

The US and Japan substantially upgraded their defence alliance in a high profile summit meeting in Washington earlier this month. Japan, in turn, held its first naval exercises with Vietnam and the Philippines in the South China Sea. This week, the US announced (and then later denied) it would station B-1 bombers in northern Australia, also with an eye on balancing China in the region.

在本月早些時候於華盛頓舉行的備受矚目的峯會上，美國和日本實質性升級了它們的防衛同盟。日本進而在南中國海與越南和菲律賓舉行了首次聯合海上軍演。上週，美國宣佈將在澳大利亞北部部署B-1轟炸機（這條消息後來被否認），目標也是在該地區制衡中國。

Then, just in time for John Kerry’s weekend visit to Beijing, the Pentagon made it known it was contemplating limited military options in the form of naval patrols and surveillance flights in contested areas in the South China Sea to reinforce its opposition to Chinese actions.

接下來，就在美國國務卿約翰•克里(John Kerry)上週末訪問北京之際，五角大樓透露它正考慮在南中國海爭議地區以海上巡邏和偵察飛行形式採取有限軍事行動，以強化它對中方行動的反對。

At issue is China’s “island factory”, a series of intensifying reclamation works in the South China Sea to strengthen Beijing’s control over areas claimed by numerous Asia nations.

目前人們爭論的焦點是中國的“島嶼工廠”（island factory，在礁盤上填海造島——譯者注），這是指中國在南中國海開展的一連串愈演愈烈的填海工事，目的在於加強中方對亞洲多國聲索的區域的控制。

The possibility of a limited but risky challenge to Chinese actions by the US military hasn’t come out of the blue. Policy heavyweights in Washington policy and defence circles have been marshalling their arguments for the US to push back against what they regard as aggressive Chinese behavior in the South China Sea for months.

美軍對中方行動發起有限但危險挑戰的可能性並不是突然出現的。幾個月來，華盛頓政策和防務圈子裏的要人一直在彙集整理他們的論據，支持美國反擊他們眼中中國在南中國海的咄咄逼人行爲。

Robert Blackwill and Ashley Tellis, of the Council on Foreign Relations, bought the debate to the surface in a report in March, which calls for the US to build up its economic, diplomatic and military position in Asia. In short, less accommodation of China and more balancing.

美國外交關係委員會(Council on Foreign Relations)的羅伯特•布萊克威爾(Robert Blackwill)和阿什利•泰利斯(Ashley Tellis)在3月份的一份報告中將這一辯論提上了檯面。該報告呼籲美國在亞洲確立經濟、外交和軍事地位。簡而言之，對待中國要少些遷就、多些制衡。

“Because the American effort to ‘integrate’ China into the liberal international order has now generated new threats to US primacy in Asia — and could eventually result in a consequential challenge to American power globally,” the report argues, “Washington needs a new grand strategy toward China that centers on balancing the rise of Chinese power rather than continuing to assist its ascendancy.”

該報告辯稱：“由於美國讓中國‘融入’自由國際秩序的努力如今已對美國在亞洲的主導地位產生新的威脅、並且最終有可能對美國的全球影響力構成重大挑戰，華盛頓方面需要針對中國出臺新的宏大戰略，核心是制衡中國影響力的上升，而不是繼續助其崛起。”

An alternative set of voices who had largely prevailed in China policy in the Obama and George W. Bush administrations, and who advocated against the US adopting a more nakedly aggressive policy, are now on the back foot in Washington.

在奧巴馬(Obama)和小布什(George W. Bush)政府內曾大行其道的另一種聲音——即反對美國對華採取更赤裸裸的咄咄逼人政策——如今在華盛頓已落下風。