多重危機令歐盟不堪重負 The crises that threaten to unravel the EU

There is a comforting cliché in Brussels that the EU needs crises in order to progress. But the current cocktail of problems facing Europe — refugees, the euro and the danger that Britain might leave the union look far more likely to overwhelm the EU than to strengthen it.

布魯塞爾的政客們經常這樣自我安慰：歐盟需要危機才能進步。但歐洲當前面臨的一系列問題——難民、歐元以及英國可能退出的危險——看起來更有可能壓垮、而非加強歐盟。

For the first time in decades, some of the fundamental achievements and tenets of the EU are under threat. These include the single currency, open borders, free movement of labour and the notion that membership is forever.

歐盟的一些根本成就和原則幾十年來首次受到威脅，包括單一貨幣、開放邊界、勞動力自由遷徙以及永久成員國資格的觀念。

Rather than rising to these challenges, the EU is creaking under the strain. Its 28 members are arguing bitterly and seem incapable of framing effective responses to their common problems.

歐盟沒有奮起應對這些挑戰，而是在壓力下出現裂縫。歐盟28個成員國間的爭論很激烈，似乎不能針對他們的共同問題擬定有效迴應。

These arguments are also taking place against an ominous backdrop. Large parts of the EU remain sunk in a semi-depression with high unemployment and unsustainable public finances. The problems of an imploding Middle East are crowding in on Europe, in the form of hundreds of thousands of refugees. And the political fringes are on the rise — with the latest evidence being the election of a far-left eurosceptic candidate to lead Britain’s Labour party.

這些爭論發生在一個不祥的大背景下。歐盟大片地區仍處於高失業率以及公共財政不可持續的半衰退狀態。中東內爆帶來的問題正在撲向歐洲，其形式就是數十萬難民。而政治極端勢力正在崛起——持歐洲懷疑論的極左翼候選人當選英國工黨新領袖就是最新的證據。

With a sense of crisis mounting and the EU unable to respond, countries will be increasingly inclined to act unilaterally or even — in the case of Britain — leave the bloc altogether.

由於感到危機愈演愈烈而歐盟無力應對，各成員國將越來越傾向於採取單邊行動，甚至（就英國而言）徹底脫離歐盟。

The refugee crisis is already threatening cherished ideas about open borders. In the past couple of days, Germany has reimposed frontier controls with Austria — which, in turn, has imposed controls at its border with Hungary, which itself is working feverishly to complete a barbed-wire fence to protect its frontier with non-EU Serbia. Controls have been tightened on the French-Italian borders, while migrants camp miserably in Calais, hoping to cross to England.

難民危機已經威脅到關於開放邊界的受到珍視的理念。近日，德國重新啓動了與奧地利之間的邊境管控；奧地利進而加強了與匈牙利之間的邊境管控，而匈牙利正在全力構築一道鐵絲網圍牆，以保護本國與非歐盟的塞爾維亞之間的邊界。法國-意大利邊境的管控已經收緊，同時一些移民在法國加來（Calais，法國北部港口城市——譯者注）安營紮寨，希望能穿越海峽到英格蘭。

If the EU somehow gets a grip on the migrant crisis, these measures might be no more than temporary expedients. But if the pressure of would-be refugees heading for Europe remains intense, then temporary measures could harden into permanent controls.

如果歐盟設法控制住了這場移民危機，那麼這些措施或許只是權宜之計。但如果涌向歐洲的準難民帶來的壓力不減，那麼這些臨時措施可能固化，變成永久性管控。

Question marks over open borders will easily shade into wider issues about access to welfare systems and labour markets. That is because EU countries are realising that — in a border-free single market — a unilateral change of asylum rules by Germany had implications for the immigration policies of all member states. Once migrants get citizenship in one EU country, they have the right to move to any other, to work there and to claim benefits. But if free movement of people and labour come into question, so does the EU’s single market — its central achievement.

開放邊界問題很容易擴展爲涉及福利制度與勞動力市場的更廣泛議題。這是因爲歐盟各國意識到，在開放邊界的單一市場中，德國單方面改變庇護規則，會對所有成員國的移民政策造成影響。一旦移民在一個歐盟國家獲得公民身份，他們就有權利遷移至其他任何歐盟國家，在那裏工作和申請福利。但如果人員和勞動力的自由流動成了問題，那麼單一市場這個歐盟核心成就也將面對問號。

The refugee issue has, for the moment, overshadowed the euro. But the problems of the single currency have not gone away. On the contrary, Greece’s decision this summer to knuckle under and accept yet another austerity package has made the eurozone look increasingly like a trap.

眼下，難民問題蓋過了歐元。但單一貨幣的問題並未消失。相反，希臘今年夏天屈膝接受又一套緊縮方案的決定，讓歐元區看起來越來越像一個陷阱。

Even Greece, which is profoundly unhappy with life in the eurozone, cannot risk leaving for fear of provoking a financial and economic crisis. Creditor countries such as Germany and the Netherlands are not much happier, as they fear they are being dragged into a system of permanent fiscal transfers towards the nations of southern Europe. Meanwhile, efforts to make the euro work better, by pressing ahead with a banking union, are stuck in Brussels. This does not look like a sustainable situation and the risk of euro break-up will surely return.

即便是對歐元區成員國身份極爲不開心的希臘，出於對引發金融和經濟危機的擔憂，也不敢冒險脫離歐元區。德國、荷蘭等債權國也不是特別開心，因爲他們擔心自己正被拖入一個向南歐國家進行財政轉移的永久性制度。與此同時，推動建立銀行業聯盟、使歐元更好發揮作用的努力在布魯塞爾受阻。這看起來不像一種可持續局面，歐元區解體的風險肯定會捲土重來。

The refugee and euro crises bear on whether Britain will vote to stay in the EU, when it holds a referendum in 2016 or 2017. Until recently, the opinion polls looked promising for the pro-EU camp. But the migrant crisis plays directly into the most potent issue deployed by those campaigning for Britain to leave — which is that membership of the EU means that the UK cannot control immigration. More broadly, the British are less likely to stay inside an organisation that seems to be failing. If they vote to leave, the sense of crisis within the EU would then mount — raising the possibility of further defections.

難民和歐元危機會對英國2016年或2017年舉行決定去留歐盟的全民公投產生影響。直到不久以前，民調看起來還對親歐盟的陣營有利。但移民危機直接助推了希望英國脫離歐盟人士端出的最具說服力的議題——歐盟成員國身份意味着英國無法控制移民。更廣義地說，英國人相對不太可能留在一個看似要失敗的組織中。如果英國人投票脫離歐盟，那麼歐盟內部的危機感將增大——更多國家可能會脫離歐盟。

A partial unravelling and marginalisation of the EU still looks more likely than a full-scale collapse. But even if an organisation called the European Union continues to exist — running buildings and paying salaries — it risks becoming increasingly irrelevant.

比起全面解體，歐盟更有可能出現部分解體和被邊緣化。但即使這個被稱爲歐盟的組織繼續存在（保持機構運轉並支付薪水），其影響力可能日漸式微。

The best way to avoid these sorry fates would be for the bloc to demonstrate its relevance and effectiveness — by showing EU citizens that collective action and co-operation are the only ways of dealing with issues like the migrant crisis.

避免這種可悲命運的最好辦法是，歐盟展現出自身的相關性和有效性——向歐盟公民表明，集體行動與合作是應對移民危機等問題的唯一方式。

The trouble is that the EU’s complex and unwieldy decision-making processes make it extremely hard to respond quickly and coherently to a crisis — as the migrant issue illustrates.

麻煩在於，歐盟複雜而難纏的決策過程意味着很難對危機做出快速而協調一致的迴應——正如當前移民問題所顯示的。