中美花生市場冰火兩重天 Chinese shell out for peanuts while US prices toil

Stark disparities have appeared between two important peanut markets as the Chinese shell out more for the groundnut amid a scramble for supplies, while record US inventories fuel fears that farmers may not have enough warehouse space to store the snack.

世界兩個重要花生市場行情迥異。中國人花更大價錢搶購，而美國花生庫存創紀錄，讓人擔心農場主或許沒有足夠的倉儲空間存放花生。

The divergence comes as regional price differences have widened because of the weather, state subsidies that change farmer behaviour and quarantine rules that affect trade flows.

之所以產生這種差異，是因爲天氣狀況、政府補貼（直接影響農戶行爲）以及檢疫規則（影響貿易流動）等因素導致中美地區價差擴大。

Peanut prices from China “have gone up dangerously”, says Paul van Velzen, managing director of Aldebaran Commodities, a Rotterdam-based nut and oilseeds trader.

中國花生價格“漲勢危險，”位於鹿特丹的堅果和油籽貿易商Aldebaran Commodities的董事總經理保羅•範維爾岑(Paul van Velzen)表示。

Prices in China, a leading peanut exporter, have stayed high after a fall in production in the crop year 2014-15 — the result of a drop in planting because of lower prices and bad weather.

在2014至2015作物年度，由於此前花生價格較低，農戶減少了花生種植面積，再加上天氣惡劣，中國花生產量出現了下滑。自那以後，中國花生價格一直保持在高位。中國是世界主要花生出口國之一。

About half of the country’s peanuts are crushed into oil used for cooking. It is prized for its nutty flavour and the ability to be heated to high temperatures without burning. Chinese consumers are also turning to nuts as a healthy snack, and producers have had limited ability to keep pace with the growing demand.

在中國，大約二分之一的花生會被榨製成烹飪用油。花生油發出果仁香味，在高溫加熱時不會燃燒，因而受到消費者喜歡。中國消費者也把堅果作爲一種健康零食。但生產商的產能有限，無法滿足不斷擴大的需求。

Although Chinese production is expected to hit 16.8m tonnes in the 2016-17 crop year, up from 16.5m in 2014-15, according to the US Department of Agriculture, the large oilseed processing sector in China has continued to provide avid buyers, leading to sharp price increases.

根據美國農業部(USDA)數據，中國花生產量預計將從2014至2015作物年度的1650萬噸增加至2016至2017作物年度的1680萬噸。儘管如此，中國龐大的油籽加工行業不斷地向熱切的買家供貨，導致價格大幅攀升。

For example, peanut oil in Shandong, an important growing region, is trading at about Rmb14,400 ($2,222) a tonne, up 8 per cent from a year ago and the highest since February 2014.

例如，在中國花生種植大省山東，目前花生油的價格約爲每噸1.44萬元人民幣（約合2222美元），比一年前上漲8%，爲2014年2月以來的最高價。

The export prices for peanuts have also continued to rise over the past few months. “The prices keep on going up,” says Mr van Velzen.

過去幾個月，花生出口價格也持續上漲。“價格一直在上漲，”範維爾岑說。

In the US, farmers are seeing an overhang of inventories thanks to two bumper harvests in 2014 and 2015.

而在美國，由於2014年和2015年連續大豐收，農場主們正面臨庫存過剩的局面。

“We had a phenomenal year in 2015,” says Don Koehler, executive director of the Georgia Peanut Commission, which produces almost half of the US’s peanuts. US production in 2015 totalled 2.8m tonnes, up almost a fifth from the year before.

“2015年是非同尋常的一年，”美國佐治亞州花生委員會(Georgia Peanut Commission)的常務理事唐•凱勒(Don Koehler)說。該委員會成員的花生產量幾乎佔到全美國的一半。2015年，美國花生產量達280萬噸，同比增加近20%。

Mr Koehler says that US farmers were planting more peanuts as cotton and corn prices were low. Cotton was down mainly because of the large stock overhang in China caused by the country’s state stockpiling system.

凱勒說，由於棉花和玉米價格較低，美國農場主種植了更多花生。棉花價格低，主要原因是中國的國家收儲制度導致中國棉花庫存非常高。

Peanut farmers also benefit from the US government’s subsidy programme for grains and oilseeds, which supplements the farmers’ revenue if the national price or crop revenue drops below guaranteed levels.

美國政府對穀物和油籽實施補貼的政策也讓種植花生的農場主獲益。如果國內價格或作物收入低於保證水平，政府補貼就能彌補農場主的收入。

A loan programme also protects peanut growers by providing interim financing for farmers and further insulating them from price declines as the government takes ownership of the loan collateral of peanuts if prices drop below an agreed rate.

有一個貸款項目也保護了花生種植者，它爲農場主提供過渡融資，並進一步使農場主不受價格下跌的影響——如果價格跌到約定水平之下，政府會把作爲貸款抵押品的花生收爲己有。

Farmers in the south of the US usually alternate between cotton, corn and peanuts, but with cotton lacking a government support programme, “the recent and forecasted extremely low cotton prices coupled with the other commodities’ low prices has forced southern farmers to look towards peanuts as the safety net”, says a report on peanut supply and storage from the US’s National Center for Peanut Competitiveness.

美國南部的農場主通常在棉花、玉米和花生之間輪換種植，但由於政府未推出支持棉花種植的項目，“近期及預期的棉花價格都極低，加上其他大宗商品價格處於低位，迫使南方農場主把花生作爲保障收益的作物，”美國全國花生競爭力中心(National Center for Peanut Competitiveness)的一份關於花生供給與存儲的報告指出。

Average US prices are 19 cents a pound, down 14 per cent from a year ago and 40 per cent from the start of 2013, according to the USDA.

美國農業部表示，美國花生平均價格爲每磅19美分，較一年前下跌了14%，較2013年初下跌了40%。

If US peanut prices remain weak, it is possible the cost to the taxpayer will be more than $800m a year in 2016, 2017 and 2018, according to a Congressional research paper.

根據一份國會研究報告，如果美國花生價格依舊疲軟，可能造成納稅人在2016年至2018年期間每年損失超過8億美元。

With peanut inventories forecast to rise to a record 1.3m tonnes this year, there is a chance that US farmers will run out of warehouse space. “Without adequate storage capacity, many peanut producers may not be able to store their peanuts in a federal license warehouse” and participate in the government’s loan programme, the NCPC warns.

由於今年花生庫存預計將上升至創紀錄的130萬噸，美國農場主可能會用完倉庫空間。全美花生競爭力中心警告稱，“沒有足夠的儲存容量，很多花生種植者可能無法在聯邦許可倉庫存放花生”，也無法參加政府的貸款項目。

“We’re telling our members that when they buy the seed, they have got to have guaranteed storage,” says Mr Koehler. In an ideal world, the US would be increasing its exports, which account for about 20 per cent of its overall production. However, certain importers, including Europe, have stringent quarantine rules on aflatoxins — toxic chemicals caused by mould — limiting the amount of imports from the US.

“我們正在告訴會員，他們購買種子時，必須有可以保障的儲存空間，”凱勒稱。如果是在一個理想的世界，美國就會增加對外出口（出口約佔美國花生總產量的20%）。然而，包括歐洲在內，某些進口國在黃麴黴素（由黴菌導致的有毒化學物質）方面有着嚴格的檢疫規定，限制了對從美國進口的花生總量。

Differing consumer tastes and preferences also restrict the US varieties sold overseas.

消費者口味和喜好的差異也限制了美國銷往海外的花生品種。

China turned to the US in 2012 after its regular supplier, India, faced a poor harvest because of drought. Although Beijing imposes a 15 per cent import duty and 13 per cent VAT on peanut imports, US peanut growers have pinned their hopes on Chinese demand.

2012年，在長期供應國印度因乾旱而面臨歉收之後，中國轉向美國進口花生。儘管北京方面對進口花生徵收15%的進口稅以及13%的增值稅，但是美國花生種植者仍然把希望寄託在中國需求上。

US peanut industry delegates have visited China to promote their wares. “China has been buying peanuts from us,” says Mr Koehler, adding: “There is a lot of activity right now to build relationships with Chinese buyers.”

美國花生行業代表前往中國推銷他們的產品。“中國一直從我們這裏購買花生，”凱勒稱，並補充道，“目前正進行着很多活動，目的是與中國買家建立關係。”