普京的敘利亞戰略日漸清晰 Russia is following a clear strategy in Syria

Vladimir Putin’s decision to pull Russian troops out of Syria hit the headlines around the world. But it should have been expected. Official statements said from the beginning that the operation would last only a limited time, that there would be no permanent extensive military presence, that the purpose was not to support Bashar al-Assad’s regime but to save the country’s statehood and that the future would have to be determined by the Syrian people through political talks. What they said then is actually happening.

俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾•普京(Vladimir Putin)從敘利亞撤軍的決定登上了世界各地的新聞頭條。但這一決定本應在預料之中。俄羅斯官方聲明從一開始就表示，此番軍事行動只會持續有限時間，俄軍不會在敘利亞建立永久、廣泛的軍事存在，其目的並非要支持巴沙爾•阿薩德(Bashar al-Assad)政權，而是爲了維護敘利亞的國家地位，這個國家的未來須由其人民通過政治談判決定。他們當時所說的話現在真的在兌現。

So why now? The question of an exit strategy has been raised throughout the operation, and Mr Putin felt the time was right. Looking back, one can see why. The Syrian regime had had to be fortified because, Russia believed, the spread of radical Islam could be stopped only by strengthening statehood; the Syrian government is internationally recognised and Moscow had offered to help it. Russian aircraft bombed its opponents — Isis and other militant groups — but the mission took longer than planned because Syria’s army was less combat-ready than expected. Eventually, the situation was reversed, allowing Russia to reduce its presence and its responsibility for the future.

那麼，爲什麼現在撤軍？何時撤軍的問題貫穿於此次軍事行動始終，而普京感覺現在時機到了。回顧過去，我們可以看到原因。敘利亞政權當時之所以必須得到鞏固，是因爲俄羅斯相信，要阻止激進伊斯蘭教的蔓延，只能依靠加強敘利亞國家地位；當前的敘利亞政府得到國際認可，於是莫斯科向其伸出了援手。俄軍戰機轟炸了敘利亞政府的對手——“伊斯蘭國”(ISIS)及其他激進組織——但行動時間超出了原定計劃，因爲敘利亞軍隊的作戰能力比預想得要低。最終，戰場上的局勢出現了逆轉，使俄羅斯可以減少其軍事存在以及對敘利亞未來所負的責任。

What are the results? The Assad regime has been saved from collapse and increased the territory it controls. The change in the balance of forces on the ground has inspired hope for genuine talks; it is well known that some parties seriously consider political deals only when military victory becomes implausible. The opposition can no longer hope to win militarily, and neither can the regime after Russian troops leave. Syria needs profound reforms to recover a viable statehood and few in Moscow believe the present regime will last long without changes. Russia’s pullout is a signal to the Syrian authorities that it will not do their work for them.

俄軍干預的結果如何？阿薩德政權免於倒臺，並擴大了控制的版圖。戰場力量對比的變化激發了對於展開切實談判的希望；衆所周知，只有軍事勝利變得無望時，各方纔會認真考慮政治協議。反對派無法再指望能取得軍事上的勝利，俄軍撤出後，阿薩德政權也無法打垮反對派。敘利亞需要進行深刻的改革，以重建一個有效的全國性政權，莫斯科的決策者幾乎都認爲，如不進行改革，敘利亞現政權維持不了多久。俄羅斯的撤軍向敘利亞當局發出一個信號——莫斯科不會越俎代庖。

Russia had started the operation under the slogan of combating Isis — but this task became secondary and the war was essentially waged for Syria itself. The main question was whether statehood could recover as a sustainable, gov-ernable entity. The approach assumed any destruction of the administrative structure would be the result of the regime’s deposition and chaos could ensue. Still, efforts by Moscow in Syria and the US-led coalition in Iraq did stop the spread of Isis. To secure its defeat, more is needed. Air strikes are not enough; a ground campaign and ideally joint efforts by the regime and opposition must follow. This can be achieved only through a political process.

俄羅斯是在打擊ISIS的口號下開始此番軍事行動的，但這一任務已成爲次要，這場仗本質上是爲敘利亞本身而打的。當時的主要問題在於，敘利亞國家政權能否重建成爲一個可持續、能治理的實體。這種看法認爲，敘利亞政權倒臺會導致國家行政架構不同程度的破壞，接着便會出現混亂。不過，莫斯科在敘利亞的行動，加上美國爲首的聯軍在伊拉克的行動，的確阻止了ISIS的蔓延。爲了確保打敗ISIS，還需要更多的行動。只靠空襲還不夠；地面行動必須跟上，最好還有敘利亞政權與反對派的聯合行動。只有通過政治進程才能實現此類行動。

Can Mr Assad survive without Russia? It will not leave completely. There have been two recent similar situations. When the US pulled out of Iraq completely, the country fell apart and Isis emerged. When the US withdrew most of its troops from Afghanistan but left a serious military presence, it kept the country together despite all its problems. Russia should keep its military infrastructure and a contingent of forces in Syria to guarantee the regime will not collapse. Moscow has learnt its lessons.

沒有俄羅斯的支持，阿薩德能堅持下去嗎？俄軍不會完全撤離。我們曾見過兩種相似的情形。美軍全部撤出伊拉克後，伊拉克陷入了分崩離析，ISIS開始崛起。美國從阿富汗撤出了大部分軍隊，但在當地保留了一支強大的軍事存在，後者保證了阿富汗的完整性，儘管這個國家也存在各種問題。俄羅斯應當在敘利亞保留軍事基礎設施以及一支軍事力量，以確保敘利亞政權不會倒臺。莫斯科在這方面已經有過經驗教訓。

What are the political results? Russia has proved to be an influential international operator. The agenda for discussion with the west has widened. Before the Syria campaign, it focused mainly on the Ukraine peace process — a peripheral issue compared with the Middle East. It would be naive to expect a “Ukraine for Syria” bargain, but there is no doubt Moscow is taken more seriously than six months ago, and this will have an impact on the Ukrainian talks.

政治結局將如何？俄羅斯已被證明是一個有影響力的國際事務參與者。與西方國家的談判議程已經擴大。在對敘利亞進行軍事幹預前，俄羅斯主要聚焦於烏克蘭和平進程——與中東相比只是一個邊緣問題。期待一個“以烏克蘭換敘利亞”的協議是不切實際的，但毫無疑問，比起6個月前，西方如今更加重視莫斯科，這將對烏克蘭問題的談判產生影響。

Do the Geneva peace talks have any future? That Russia is distancing itself from Mr Assad while not giving up on him is a positive sign. Syria will change, and Moscow will be able to interact not only with Assad’s regime but also with a broader array of actors. Coupled with intensive diplomatic efforts between Moscow, Washington and Riyadh, this will provide a chance for a settlement.

日內瓦和談會有戲嗎？俄羅斯在不放棄阿薩德的同時又與其保持距離，這是一個積極信號。敘利亞將發生變革，莫斯科將不但能與阿薩德政權互動，也能與更廣泛的相關參與者互動。再加上莫斯科、華盛頓與利雅得之間密集的外交努力，這將爲解決敘利亞問題提供新的契機。