中國應從委內瑞拉違約中學到什麼教訓

China’s provision of development finance to the emerging world has always been about much more than building infrastructure to reap a commercial return.

中國爲新興世界提供發展融資一直以來都不只是爲了通過建設基礎設施獲取商業回報。

It has also been about changing destinies.

它還關乎改變一些國家的命運。

Beijing selected countries that it aimed to lift from poverty, while forging political alliances and creating markets for Chinese goods.

北京方面精心選擇一些國家，希望幫助他們擺脫貧困，同時與他們建立政治聯盟，併爲中國商品打開市場。

The defining characteristic of China’s power projection is its ability to get things done.

中國力量投射的鮮明特徵是其把事情做成的能力。

Thus, a mounting economic crisis in Venezuela comes as a big blow.

因此，委內瑞拉愈演愈烈的經濟危機對中國是一個沉重打擊。

Caracas is the biggest client of China’s state-orchestrated development lending, accepting some $65bn in loans since 2007 for projects such as oil refineries, gold mines and railways.

加拉加斯是中國政府主導的發展貸款的最大客戶。自2007年以來，委內瑞拉在煉油廠、金礦及鐵路等項目上共獲得中國約650億美元的貸款。

But in May this year, Venezuela engineered a default under which it has deferred paying the principal — and only honours the interest — on outstanding debts estimated at $20bn-$24bn.

但今年5月，委內瑞拉違約了，拖延支付約200億至240億美元未償債務的本金，只支付利息。

Worse may be yet to come.

更糟糕的可能還在後面。

Venezuelan inflation is running at about 800 per cent and a chronic shortage of US dollars is preventing Caracas from paying some of the contractors that keep its oil supplies flowing.

委內瑞拉的通脹率已經高達800%左右，長期美元短缺使加拉加斯無法付款給保障其石油供應流暢的部分承包商。

Since China’s loans are secured against this dwindling output of oil, pulses are racing in Beijing.

由於中國的貸款以這些產量不斷減少的石油爲擔保，北京方面對此感到緊張。

In addition, some of the projects undertaken with Chinese money, including a partly built high-speed railway, have been vandalised and abandoned.

此外，一些依靠中國資金建設的項目已被破壞或放棄，包括一條半途而廢的高鐵。

The reversal also suggests that Beijing’s developmental model is at fault.

這種反轉也表明，北京的發展貸款模式存在問題。

Its institutions have eschewed the strict conditionality and emphasis on governance that characterises the approach of the World Bank and other western-backed multilateral organisations.

中國的金融機構迴避了世界銀行(Word Bank)和其他西方支持的多邊機構奉行的嚴格貸款條件以及對治理的重視。

Instead of looking backwards into a country’s credit record, it has tried to look forward to what it might achieve with sufficient investment and infrastructure.

中國不去回顧一個國家的信用記錄，而是展望在大力投資建設基礎設施後自己可以實現什麼。

In the case of Venezuela, at least, this approach is found to be wanting.

至少在向委內瑞拉放貸這件事上，這種貸款方式是有欠缺的。

The unorthodox nature of Venezuela’s economic policies were abundantly clear a decade ago when China’s leaders conducted a diplomatic love affair with Hugo Chávez, the charismatic late president.

中國領導人10年前對委內瑞拉魅力非凡的已故總統烏戈•查韋斯(Hugo Chávez)發展密切外交關係時，委內瑞拉經濟政策的非正統性已經非常清楚了。

But Beijing nevertheless poured money into a country that had defaulted on or rescheduled debts to overseas creditors four times in the preceding 30 years.

然而，北京方面還是將大量資金貸給這個過去30年曾經對海外債權人違約或進行債務重組已達四次的國家。

Now, Chinese officials say, a colder, harder approach towards extending loans is being adopted not only in the case of Venezuela but all over the emerging world.

中國官員稱，如今，不僅對委內瑞拉，中國在對整個新興世界提供貸款時都採取了更冷靜、更嚴格的方式。

This is likely to have important ramifications: China is the biggest source of global development finance with more loans outstanding than the six western-backed multilateral agencies put together.

這很可能帶來重大的影響，因爲中國是全球發展融資最大的來源地，其貸款餘額超過了六個西方支持的多邊機構的總和。

But as China rethinks its approach, the west should resist schadenfreude.

但在中國反思其放貸方式之際，西方不應對此幸災樂禍。

At times, the approach of its development-lending institutions has been as dilatory, nitpicking and superior, as China’s has been impulsive and cavalier.

中國的發展貸款機構魯莽、不計後果，而西方的發展貸款機構有時則行事拖沓、吹毛求疵、傲慢。

Besides, the world needs Chinese money and the expertise of its huge infrastructure construction corporations.

除此之外，世界需要中國的資金和中國大型基建公司的專業知識。

In Asia alone, the infrastructure gap requires about $1tn a year by 2020.

僅在亞洲，2020年之前的基建資金缺口每年就需要約1萬億美元。

One way forward would be for Chinese and western-backed development institutions to work together.

未來的一條出路是中西方的發展機構攜手合作。

Their qualities — the singularity of purpose and speed of execution of China and the due diligence of the World Bank, Asian Development Bank and others — could combine for optimum results.

雙方的特點——中國的目的性和執行速度與世行、亞洲開發銀行(Asian Development Bank)等機構的盡職調查——結合起來可能實現最優結果。

But this can only be a partial solution because China is overwhelmingly a bilateral actor.

但這只是一部分解決方案，解決不了全部問題，因爲中國奉行雙邊路線。

For its own sake and that of the countries it lends to, it should borrow more liberally from the west’s playbook, assessing country risks on the basis of governance, transparency and due process.

爲了本國和借貸國的利益，中國應更多地借鑑西方模式，從治理、透明度和正當程序等方面評估一個國家的風險。